Cogencis, Wednesday, May 8
By Shrikant Kuwalekar and Kavita Desai
MUMBAI – Lucrative prices may have prompted farmers to plant more cotton in kharif season, but a likely delay in monsoon onset and lack of clarity over distribution of rainfall may still have a bearing on the final acreage.
India's cotton acreage is seen rising 5-10% in the kharif season and sowing has already begun in north India, though with a lag of 10-15 days because of a delay in rabi crop harvesting, especially wheat.
"However, we see acreage rising 5-10% from last year due to comparatively better yields and prices in the current year," said Venkatram Vasantavada, managing director and chief executive officer of Hyderabad-based SeedWorks. Only 25-30% of sowing has been done so far in north India compared with 50% sowing typically seen in the first week of May, he added.
SeedWorks expects demand for cotton seed from north India to rise to around 8.0 mln packets (1 packet = 450 gm) in the next season from around 7.5 mln packets in the current year.
According to Cotton Advisory Board's data, India's cotton acreage in the current season ending September was 12.24 mln ha, down from 12.43 mln ha year ago.
Area under cotton in Punjab in the coming year is seen around 350,000 ha, sharply higher than 275,000 ha in the previous year, the state government said in its kharif target statement.
Haryana, with 664,000 ha under cotton in the current year, may witness a shift to bajra if rains are delayed beyond two weeks, some regional media reports said.
In Rajasthan, severe water crisis in Jodhpur, Nagaur, Pali, and Bhilwara due to drought in the current year coupled, and a likely delay in monsoon would see farmers shifting to guar from cotton, a senior official in the state farm department said.
Rajasthan had around 500,000 ha under cotton this year, of which 240,000 ha is in the western part of the state.
The official sees 25% drop in acreage in the western part of the state if monsoon is delayed, while in north Rajasthan, Sri Ganganagar, Hanumangadh and Bikaner may have the same area if not more due to irrigation facilities, he said.
Cotton sowing in Gujarat and Maharashtra, which together account for 55-60% of the country's output, will also depend on onset and distribution of monsoon rains despite diverse irrigation facilities.
"Considering near-normal rainfall (as predicted by India Meteorological Department), India's cotton sowing may witness 10-15% increase from last year, with north India contributing the most," said Biren Vakil, chief executive officer at Ahmedabad-based Paradigm Commodity Advisors.
Since 70% of cotton area in India is dependent on monsoon, any delay in Gujarat would mean shift to castor, groundnut and guar, Vakil said.
Castor is a sturdy and low-cost crop and with prices hitting a record 6,200 rupees per 100 kg this year, cotton farmers may be lured towards this crop in case of a delay in monsoon or deficient rains in Jun-Jul, he added.
CROP SHIFT
In drought-hit Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, maize is likely to be a major competitor for cotton due to record-high prices of the feed grain.
Maize prices had jumped to around 2,300 rupees per 100 kg in Feb-Mar against 1,400-1,500 rupees seen around this time, thanks to a smaller crop amid drought in western and southern India. Besides drought, infestation of fall army worm has also damaged a few lakh tonnes of maize this year, though government has estimated a smaller increase.
Vasantvada said farmers are concerned over the army worm infestation continuing this year due to lack of awareness and measures on controlling the disease that had created havoc in the West.
In comparison, farmers in India have learnt to control the pink bollworm disease in cotton that had created havoc in India in the past three years.
The Centre has recently decided to extend subsidy on certain inputs needed to control pink bollworm attack in Maharashtra. This should help farmers favour cotton over maize this season.
"I don't think farmers will shift to maize from cotton. In fact, it can be the opposite to some extent," Vasantavada said.
Seeds major Maharashtra Hybrid Seeds Co Pvt Ltd, popularly known as Mahyco due to its association with global giant Monsanto, is prepared to meet any rise in demand for cottonseed amid expectation of a decent rise in acreage.
"Even if monsoon is delayed, farmers have option to choose short-duration hybrid seeds in place of the normal 180-day varieties," said Subbarao Appemane of Mahyco.
Subbarao expects around 10% rise in cotton acreage if weather is conducive, but says geographical distribution of rainfall is as important as the timely onset of monsoon.
Also, cotton is a sturdy crop that requires less water and in longer intervals, while shorter duration soybean or maize need more water.
Cotton acreage in Maharashtra was at 4.1 mln ha this year, Gujarat at 2.7 mln ha, while Karnataka was at 575,000 ha. Even if the area rises, the crop size will largely depend on rainfall as too much of rain in too little time may be statistically normal or excess, but may not result in higher yields.
In 2018, rains have remained erratic in western and southern India leading to a fall in the overall crop by nearly 15% to below 32 mln bales, going by the estimates from Cotton Association of India.
All eyes will now be on IMD's monsoon onset forecast, expected in a week, as it will bring more clarity on cotton acreage and yield in the kharif season. End
Edited by Madhumita Sen Choudhury
