Informist, Tuesday, Sep 13, 2022
By Pratiksha
NEW DELHI – The rupee settled at its highest closing level against the greenback in over one-month due to continuous dollar sales by foreign portfolio investors, dealers said.
The Indian rupee settled 0.5% higher at 79.1475 a dollar.
The Indian currency opened 24 paise higher at 79.2800 a dollar because the dollar index fell to its lowest level in more than two weeks as investors expect CPI inflation in the US to cool down in August, dealers said.
The CPI print for August, due later today, is expected to show inflation in the US cooled to 8.0% in August from 8.5% in July, according to median estimates from the Wall Street Journal.
A sharp fall in CPI inflation may bring down expectations for the quantum of rate hike by the US Federal Reserve to 50 basis points, from the current expectations of 75 bps. But the impact may be weak as recent Fed officials’ comments hinted at a 75-bps hike in September.
At 1621 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 107.87 compared with 108.33 on Monday. It was at 109.00 on Friday.
An hour into trade today, the rupee rose further to 79.20 a dollar as foreign banks, including a UK-based bank, persistently sold dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors looking to invest in domestic equities, dealers said.
Both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex closed 0.8% higher each.
Dealers said a part of these inflows were due to hope of an imminent announcement of India's sovereign bonds being added to the JPMorgan Global Bond Index - Emerging Markets, dealers said.
Inclusion in global bond indices is expected to drive in up to $40 bln in inflows over a multi-year timeframe, according to HSBC. This is expected to provide boost to the rupee in the long-term.
As foreign portfolio investors stepped up their dollar sales, stop-losses were triggered on long dollar bets around the 79.15-a-dollar level, and the domestic currency ascended to the day's high of 79.0225 a dollar, dealers said.
"The rupee has been moving in a range of 79.20-80.00 for a very long time now, so the moment the 79.20 level was breached, stop losses were triggered," a dealer with a state-owned bank said.
As soon as the rupee touched the day's high, some state-owned banks stepped in to purchase dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels. After this, the Indian currency erased some earlier gains, dealers said.
"Importers came in good amount around the 79.05-79.10 (a dollar) levels," a dealer with a private bank said. "The demand (of dollars) in market is currently good and may remain so."
Banks also purchased the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies, which also weighed on the domestic unit, dealers said.
Prices of crude oil rose today as supply concerns dominated following Russia's threat to halt natural gas and oil supplies to Europe heading into the winter.
At 1621 IST, the November contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $94.99 a barrel as against $94.00 a bbl on Monday. On Friday, the November contract had settled at $92.84 a bbl.
AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 79.1475 | 79.2800 | 79.0225 | 79.3225 | 79.5225 |
FORWARDS
The premiums on dollar/rupee one-year forward contracts ended steady today ahead of the release of the US August CPI data, which is due later today.
The premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract was at 229.82 paise as against 229.97 paise at close on Monday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 2.90% against the previous day's close of 2.89%.
The US inflation print will provide further cues on the pace of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and the greenback's strength against peers going forward, market participants said.
The CPI print for August is expected to show that inflation in the US cooled to 8.0% in August from 8.5% in July, according to median estimates by The Wall Street Journal.
Market participants expect the premiums on dollar/rupee forward contracts to fall further in the coming days on the view that the differential may narrow between Indian and US yields.
OUTLOOK
On Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from overnight movement in the dollar index after the release of US CPI data due later today, dealers said.
The local unit will also take cues from movement in crude oil prices, dealers said.
"The rupee may move in a new range of 78.80-79.40 if these levels are sustained this week," a dealer with a brokerage firm said.
They see technical resistance for the rupee at 78.90 a dollar.
During the day, the rupee is seen in a range of 78.90-79.40 a dollar.
India Rupee - World FX: Dlr down ahead of US CPI data; euro up 0.4%
| AT 1605 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1712 | 1.1732 | 1.1680 | 1.1680 |
| EUR/USD | 1.0166 | 1.0169 | 1.0120 | 1.0120 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6147 | 0.6151 | 0.6125 | 0.6133 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6903 | 0.6909 | 0.6863 | 0.6885 |
| USD/JPY | 142.2170 | 142.8180 | 142.0430 | 142.8060 |
| USD/CAD | 1.2970 | 1.2994 | 1.2970 | 1.2984 |
| EUR/JPY | 144.5680 | 144.7660 | 144.1045 | 144.5210 |
| CHF/USD | 1.0530 | 1.0535 | 1.0484 | 1.0483 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9653 | 0.9663 | 0.9629 | 0.9650 |
MUMBAI – The dollar weakened against most major currencies for a fifth straight day today ahead of US CPI inflation data, which is expected to cool in August.
At 1558 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 107.87 compared with 108.33 on Monday. It was at 109.00 on Friday.
The CPI print for August, due later today, is expected to show inflation in the US cooled to 8.0% down from 8.5% in July, according to median estimates from the Wall Street Journal.
The euro surged 0.4% today as the European Central Bank is seen pursuing outsized interest rate hikes going forward to bring down soaring inflation in the continent.
The pound sterling also gained 0.3% as the Bank of England is seen raising the policy rate by 50 bps at its meeting next week. The Bank of England had delayed its interest rate decision by a week, due to the death of Queen Elizabeth-II. (Richard Fargose)
India Rupee: Premiums steady as market awaits US Aug CPI print
| AT 1417 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 79.2000 | 79.2800 | 79.0225 | 79.3225 | 79.5225 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 229.45 | 232.19 | 232.19 | 228.95 | 229.97 |
MUMBAI – The premiums on dollar/rupee one-year forward contracts were steady today ahead of the release of the US August CPI data, which is due later today.
The premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract was at 229.45 paise as against 229.97 paise at close on Monday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 2.89%, unchanged from the previous day's close.
The US inflation print will provide further cues on the pace of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and the greenback's strength against peers going forward, market participants said.
The CPI print for August is expected to show that inflation in the US cooled to 8.0% in August from 8.5% in July, according to median estimates by The Wall Street Journal.
Market participants expect the premiums on dollar/rupee forward contracts to fall further in the coming days on the view that the differential may narrow between Indian and US yields. (Richard Fargose)
India Rupee: Surges as stop-losses triggered on dollar sales by FPIs
AT 1155 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 79.0625 | 79.2800 | 79.0325 | 79.3225 | 79.5225 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee surged against the greenback after foreign banks persistently sold dollars, which led to stop-losses being triggered on long dollar bets around the 79.15-a-dollar level, dealers said.
Dealers said foreign banks persistently sold dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors looking to invest in domestic equities. At 1153 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were up 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.
Today, the Indian unit rose to its highest level since Aug 5.
Meanwhile, some state-owned banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, which limited gains in the Indian currency, dealers said.
Dealers have pegged immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 79.00 a dollar.
For the rest of the day, the Indian unit is seen moving in the range of 78.9000-79.4000 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as dollar down ahead of US CPI data
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were up today as the dollar index fell to its lowest level in more than two weeks as investors expect CPI inflation in the US to cool down in August.
At 1058 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 108.15 compared with 108.33 on Monday. It was at 109.00 on Friday.
The CPI print for August, due later today, is expected to show inflation in the US cooled to 8.0% in August down from 8.5% in July, according to median estimates from the Wall Street Journal.
Rise in local equity indices also aided Asian currencies.
The South Korean won rose 0.6%, the most amongst its Asian peers. Other Asian currencies were up 0.1-0.4% against the dollar. (Richard Fargose)
India Rupee: Sharply up as dollar index falls ahead of US CPI print
AT 0940 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 79.2550 | 79.2800 | 79.2500 | 79.3225 | 79.5225 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee rose sharply against the greenback today because the dollar index fell to its lowest level in more than two weeks as investors expect CPI inflation in the US to have cooled down in August, dealers said.
The CPI print for August, due later today, is expected to show inflation in the US cooled to 8.0% in August from 8.5% in July, according to median estimates from The Wall Street Journal.
At 0940 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 108.19 compared with 108.33 on Monday. It was at 109.00 on Friday.
Gains in domestic equity indices also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0940 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were 0.7% and 0.6% higher, respectively.
"Rupee continues to be an outperformer as FPI inflows support the pair. Lower oil prices and expectation of GOIsec's inclusion in the global bond indices are fuelling the carry trade in the rupee," said Anindya Banerjee, vice-president, currency derivatives and interest rate derivatives at Kotak Securities.
"US dollar index has corrected over the last few trading sessions and equity markets are on a roll. Therefore, this bullish package is strong enough to bring USDINR towards its important support cluster above 79.20 (a dollar) levels on spot."
Dealers have pegged immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 79.20 a dollar.
For the rest of the day, the Indian unit is seen moving in the range of 79.2000-79.5000 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sep 13
NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee, as forecasted by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
Participants | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 79.60 | 79.25 |
| State-owned bank | 79.60 | 79.15 |
| Private bank | 79.50 | 79.20 |
| Private bank | 79.55 | 79.25 |
| Foreign bank | 79.65 | 79.15 |
| Brokerage firm | 79.55 | 79.25 |
| Brokerage firm | 79.65 | 79.10 |
(Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Arshad Hussain
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2022. All rights reserved.
Informist, Tuesday, Sep 13, 2022
By Pratiksha
NEW DELHI – The rupee settled at its highest closing level against the greenback in over one-month due to continuous dollar sales by foreign portfolio investors, dealers said.
The Indian rupee settled 0.5% higher at 79.1475 a dollar.
The Indian currency opened 24 paise higher at 79.2800 a dollar because the dollar index fell to its lowest level in more than two weeks as investors expect CPI inflation in the US to cool down in August, dealers said.
The CPI print for August, due later today, is expected to show inflation in the US cooled to 8.0% in August from 8.5% in July, according to median estimates from the Wall Street Journal.
A sharp fall in CPI inflation may bring down expectations for the quantum of rate hike by the US Federal Reserve to 50 basis points, from the current expectations of 75 bps. But the impact may be weak as recent Fed officials’ comments hinted at a 75-bps hike in September.
At 1621 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 107.87 compared with 108.33 on Monday. It was at 109.00 on Friday.
An hour into trade today, the rupee rose further to 79.20 a dollar as foreign banks, including a UK-based bank, persistently sold dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors looking to invest in domestic equities, dealers said.
Both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex closed 0.8% higher each.
Dealers said a part of these inflows were due to hope of an imminent announcement of India's sovereign bonds being added to the JPMorgan Global Bond Index - Emerging Markets, dealers said.
Inclusion in global bond indices is expected to drive in up to $40 bln in inflows over a multi-year timeframe, according to HSBC. This is expected to provide boost to the rupee in the long-term.
As foreign portfolio investors stepped up their dollar sales, stop-losses were triggered on long dollar bets around the 79.15-a-dollar level, and the domestic currency ascended to the day's high of 79.0225 a dollar, dealers said.
"The rupee has been moving in a range of 79.20-80.00 for a very long time now, so the moment the 79.20 level was breached, stop losses were triggered," a dealer with a state-owned bank said.
As soon as the rupee touched the day's high, some state-owned banks stepped in to purchase dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels. After this, the Indian currency erased some earlier gains, dealers said.
"Importers came in good amount around the 79.05-79.10 (a dollar) levels," a dealer with a private bank said. "The demand (of dollars) in market is currently good and may remain so."
Banks also purchased the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies, which also weighed on the domestic unit, dealers said.
Prices of crude oil rose today as supply concerns dominated following Russia's threat to halt natural gas and oil supplies to Europe heading into the winter.
At 1621 IST, the November contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $94.99 a barrel as against $94.00 a bbl on Monday. On Friday, the November contract had settled at $92.84 a bbl.
AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 79.1475 | 79.2800 | 79.0225 | 79.3225 | 79.5225 |
FORWARDS
The premiums on dollar/rupee one-year forward contracts ended steady today ahead of the release of the US August CPI data, which is due later today.
The premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract was at 229.82 paise as against 229.97 paise at close on Monday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 2.90% against the previous day's close of 2.89%.
The US inflation print will provide further cues on the pace of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and the greenback's strength against peers going forward, market participants said.
The CPI print for August is expected to show that inflation in the US cooled to 8.0% in August from 8.5% in July, according to median estimates by The Wall Street Journal.
Market participants expect the premiums on dollar/rupee forward contracts to fall further in the coming days on the view that the differential may narrow between Indian and US yields.
OUTLOOK
On Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from overnight movement in the dollar index after the release of US CPI data due later today, dealers said.
The local unit will also take cues from movement in crude oil prices, dealers said.
"The rupee may move in a new range of 78.80-79.40 if these levels are sustained this week," a dealer with a brokerage firm said.
They see technical resistance for the rupee at 78.90 a dollar.
During the day, the rupee is seen in a range of 78.90-79.40 a dollar.
India Rupee - World FX: Dlr down ahead of US CPI data; euro up 0.4%
| AT 1605 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.1712 | 1.1732 | 1.1680 | 1.1680 |
| EUR/USD | 1.0166 | 1.0169 | 1.0120 | 1.0120 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6147 | 0.6151 | 0.6125 | 0.6133 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6903 | 0.6909 | 0.6863 | 0.6885 |
| USD/JPY | 142.2170 | 142.8180 | 142.0430 | 142.8060 |
| USD/CAD | 1.2970 | 1.2994 | 1.2970 | 1.2984 |
| EUR/JPY | 144.5680 | 144.7660 | 144.1045 | 144.5210 |
| CHF/USD | 1.0530 | 1.0535 | 1.0484 | 1.0483 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9653 | 0.9663 | 0.9629 | 0.9650 |
MUMBAI – The dollar weakened against most major currencies for a fifth straight day today ahead of US CPI inflation data, which is expected to cool in August.
At 1558 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 107.87 compared with 108.33 on Monday. It was at 109.00 on Friday.
The CPI print for August, due later today, is expected to show inflation in the US cooled to 8.0% down from 8.5% in July, according to median estimates from the Wall Street Journal.
The euro surged 0.4% today as the European Central Bank is seen pursuing outsized interest rate hikes going forward to bring down soaring inflation in the continent.
The pound sterling also gained 0.3% as the Bank of England is seen raising the policy rate by 50 bps at its meeting next week. The Bank of England had delayed its interest rate decision by a week, due to the death of Queen Elizabeth-II. (Richard Fargose)
India Rupee: Premiums steady as market awaits US Aug CPI print
| AT 1417 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 79.2000 | 79.2800 | 79.0225 | 79.3225 | 79.5225 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 229.45 | 232.19 | 232.19 | 228.95 | 229.97 |
MUMBAI – The premiums on dollar/rupee one-year forward contracts were steady today ahead of the release of the US August CPI data, which is due later today.
The premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract was at 229.45 paise as against 229.97 paise at close on Monday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 2.89%, unchanged from the previous day's close.
The US inflation print will provide further cues on the pace of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and the greenback's strength against peers going forward, market participants said.
The CPI print for August is expected to show that inflation in the US cooled to 8.0% in August from 8.5% in July, according to median estimates by The Wall Street Journal.
Market participants expect the premiums on dollar/rupee forward contracts to fall further in the coming days on the view that the differential may narrow between Indian and US yields. (Richard Fargose)
India Rupee: Surges as stop-losses triggered on dollar sales by FPIs
AT 1155 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 79.0625 | 79.2800 | 79.0325 | 79.3225 | 79.5225 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee surged against the greenback after foreign banks persistently sold dollars, which led to stop-losses being triggered on long dollar bets around the 79.15-a-dollar level, dealers said.
Dealers said foreign banks persistently sold dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors looking to invest in domestic equities. At 1153 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were up 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.
Today, the Indian unit rose to its highest level since Aug 5.
Meanwhile, some state-owned banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, which limited gains in the Indian currency, dealers said.
Dealers have pegged immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 79.00 a dollar.
For the rest of the day, the Indian unit is seen moving in the range of 78.9000-79.4000 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as dollar down ahead of US CPI data
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were up today as the dollar index fell to its lowest level in more than two weeks as investors expect CPI inflation in the US to cool down in August.
At 1058 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 108.15 compared with 108.33 on Monday. It was at 109.00 on Friday.
The CPI print for August, due later today, is expected to show inflation in the US cooled to 8.0% in August down from 8.5% in July, according to median estimates from the Wall Street Journal.
Rise in local equity indices also aided Asian currencies.
The South Korean won rose 0.6%, the most amongst its Asian peers. Other Asian currencies were up 0.1-0.4% against the dollar. (Richard Fargose)
India Rupee: Sharply up as dollar index falls ahead of US CPI print
AT 0940 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 79.2550 | 79.2800 | 79.2500 | 79.3225 | 79.5225 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee rose sharply against the greenback today because the dollar index fell to its lowest level in more than two weeks as investors expect CPI inflation in the US to have cooled down in August, dealers said.
The CPI print for August, due later today, is expected to show inflation in the US cooled to 8.0% in August from 8.5% in July, according to median estimates from The Wall Street Journal.
At 0940 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 108.19 compared with 108.33 on Monday. It was at 109.00 on Friday.
Gains in domestic equity indices also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0940 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were 0.7% and 0.6% higher, respectively.
"Rupee continues to be an outperformer as FPI inflows support the pair. Lower oil prices and expectation of GOIsec's inclusion in the global bond indices are fuelling the carry trade in the rupee," said Anindya Banerjee, vice-president, currency derivatives and interest rate derivatives at Kotak Securities.
"US dollar index has corrected over the last few trading sessions and equity markets are on a roll. Therefore, this bullish package is strong enough to bring USDINR towards its important support cluster above 79.20 (a dollar) levels on spot."
Dealers have pegged immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 79.20 a dollar.
For the rest of the day, the Indian unit is seen moving in the range of 79.2000-79.5000 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sep 13
NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee, as forecasted by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
Participants | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 79.60 | 79.25 |
| State-owned bank | 79.60 | 79.15 |
| Private bank | 79.50 | 79.20 |
| Private bank | 79.55 | 79.25 |
| Foreign bank | 79.65 | 79.15 |
| Brokerage firm | 79.55 | 79.25 |
| Brokerage firm | 79.65 | 79.10 |
(Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Arshad Hussain
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2022. All rights reserved.
