Informist, Thursday, Jan 5, 2023

By Ananya Chaudhuri

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended sharply higher against the greenback today as foreign and state-owned banks persistently sold dollars on behalf of foreign institutional investors, dealers said. 

A rise in the yuan during offshore trade also supported Indian unit, dealers said. 

The rupee settled 0.3% higher at 82.5550 a dollar. 

The Indian currency started the day slightly higher at 82.7400 a dollar, tracking a sharp decline in crude oil prices, dealers said.

Crude oil prices plunged over 5% on Wednesday on worries over global recession and rising COVID-19 cases in China. Crude oil registered the steepest fall in the initial trading days of a year in over three decades. 

At 1649 IST, the March contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $79.41 a barrel against $77.84 on Wednesday. The contract settled at $82.1 a bbl on Tuesday.

Moreover, the Indian unit got support from a fall in the dollar index. The dollar index fell after the US Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting minutes failed to give any new cues on the size of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve in its February meeting. 

At 1649 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 104.19 against 104.24 on Wednesday, 104.51 on Tuesday. It fell to a low of 103.99 during the day.

The Indian unit rose further as foreign banks stepped into sell dollars for foreign fund inflows. 

"There was good selling (of dollars) for inflows which is why it (the rupee) went around 82.66-82.67(a dollar) level," a dealer from a private bank said.

Dealers said ease in dollar demand on behalf of oil importers also provided support to the domestic unit, dealers said. 

"Oil importers were buying so much during the past few days but now after the sharp fall in prices yesterday, looks like they are looking for more attractive prices," said a dealer with a big state-owned bank. 

During the last leg of the trade, the rupee rose to the day's high of 82.5425 a dollar as stop losses were triggered on long dollar bets around 82.65-82.60 a dollar levels, after state-owned and foreign banks stepped up their greenback sales on behalf of foreign institutional investors. 

Dealers said stop losses were triggered after traders rushed to sell dollars to cover their existing long bets. 

"Once the rupee breached the level of 82.65 (a dollar), stop losses were triggered, so it (rupee) went higher," a dealer from a state-owned bank said.

Moreover, the yuan was up 0.4% against the dollar as trade relation with major partner Australia improved after reports said that China is considering a partial end to its ban on imports of Australian coal. This too provided support to the Indian currency, dealers said. 

However, a fall in domestic share indices dampened the sentiment for the local unit. The benchmark share indices, Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.5% and 0.3% down, respectively.

FORWARDS

The premiums on dollar/rupee forwards rose today as importers booked forward contracts on expectation of weakness in the rupee in the long term, dealers said.

"The rupee has been avoiding the 83 (a dollar) mark for quite some time now, but it has to breach at one point," a dealer with a state-owned bank said. "Importers are paying as they expect the rupee to touch 84."

The premium on the one-year, exact-period dollar/rupee forward contract was at 169.84 paise as against 167.31 paise at close on Wednesday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 2.06% as against 2.01% at close of the previous session.

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the Indian unit will take cues from overnight movement in the dollar index and crude oil prices, dealers said.

Market participants are now waiting for Friday's US jobs report for further cues on US Federal Reserve's rate hike plan.

Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in to sell dollars to prevent the Indian currency from falling beyond the psychologically-crucial 83-per-dollar mark.

Dealers have pegged immediate technical support for the rupee at 83.00 a dollar.

The rupee is seen moving in a band of 82.60-83.00 a dollar, dealers said.

India Rupee - World FX: Canadian dlr down; Swiss franc gains

MUMBAI – The Canadian dollar was down against the dollar along with other commodity-linked currencies tracking fall in crude oil prices.

Brent crude oil has fallen by about 9.4% this week, its steepest two-day fall at the start of the year since January 1991, reports said.

The yen was up 0.1% against the dollar after Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan plans to raise its forecast for core inflation in quarterly projections due this month, although the bank still has no plans to immediately raise interest rates.

The Swiss franc was up 0.3% against the dollar as investors cheered inflation data for December, which fell to 2.8% on year from 3.0% in the previous month, showing headline inflation slowed more than expected in December. (Kabir Sharma)

India Rupee: In narrow band on lack of cues; US jobs data on Fri eyed

NEW DELHI – The rupee moved in a narrow range against the greenback as traders avoided placing large bets due to absence of significant cues, dealers said.

So far today, the Indian currency has moved in a tight range of 13 paise.

"The FOMC minutes were completely priced in and there was no surprise, we are waiting for NFP (non-farm payroll) data tomorrow (Friday) to take a position," said a dealer with a big state-owned bank.

Market participants are now waiting for Friday's US jobs report for further cues on US Federal Reserve's rate hike plan.

Meanwhile, some foreign banks sold dollars, likely for foreign fund inflows which supported the Indian unit, dealers said.

Dealers said ease in dollar demand on behalf of oil importers also provided support to the domestic unit, dealers said. 

Crude oil prices plunged more than 5% on Wednesday as the uncertainty over COVID situation in China due to rising cases affected the demand outlook for crude oil.

At 1405 IST, the March contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $78.52 a barrel against $77.84 on Wednesday. The contract settled at $82.1 a bbl on Tuesday.

Dealers have pegged immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 82.60 a dollar.

The rupee is seen moving in a band of 82.60-83.00 a dollar, dealers said. (Ananya Chaudhuri)

India Rupee: Tad up as crude prices fall 5% Wed; dollar index down

MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly against the dollar today as prices of crude oil fell by more than 5% on Wednesday over uncertainty about COVID-19 situation in China, dealers said. 

Prices of crude oil registered their steepest fall in the initial trading days of a year in over three decades. Brent has fallen by about 9.4% this week, its steepest two-day fall at the start of a year since January 1991, reports said.

Data from China showed that while no new coronavirus variant has been found, the country has under-represented how many people have died in its recent, rapidly-spreading outbreak, World Health Organisation officials said.

At 0936 IST, the March contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $78.60 a barrel against $77.84 on Wednesday. The contract settled at $82.1 a bbl on Tuesday. 

Moreover, the greenback fell after the minutes of the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting failed to surprise market participants, dealers said. This too supported the Indian unit, dealers said.  

"The minutes of FOMC were exactly as anticipated and did not have much effect on the market," a dealer with a state-owned bank said. "However the minutes indicated that this is not the peak rate and their will be further rate hikes," he said. 

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also said on Wednesday that he sees the Fed’s target interest rate peaking at 5.4%, higher than current market expectation of just under 5%. 

At 0936 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 104.22 in the Asian trade against 104.24 on Wednesday. It was at 104.51 on Tuesday.

Dealers have pegged immediate technical support for the rupee at 83.00 a dollar.

The rupee is seen moving in a band of 82.60-83.00 a dollar, dealers said. (Kabir Sharma) 

India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; dollar remains dn after FOMC minutes

MUMBAI – Asian currencies were mixed against the dollar in early trade today. The US dollar fell against most major currencies as the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's meeting failed to provide any new information about the size of the rate hike by the Federal Reserve in February.

The Singapore dollar was up 0.1% against the dollar as it continued to gain support from faster-than-expected growth in the country's economy. Singapore's economy grew 3.8% in 2022, beating the forecast of 3.5%.

The Thai Baht was up 0.3% against the dollar and was on a seven-month high as easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China boosted the economy of the tourism-reliant country. 

However, the Indonesian rupiah and Taiwanese dollar were down 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. (Kabir Sharma) 

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 5

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee today, as forecasted by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

(Kabir Sharma) 

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Maheswaran Parameswaran

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 /+91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2023. All rights reserved.

Informist, Thursday, Jan 5, 2023

By Ananya Chaudhuri

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended sharply higher against the greenback today as foreign and state-owned banks persistently sold dollars on behalf of foreign institutional investors, dealers said. 

A rise in the yuan during offshore trade also supported Indian unit, dealers said. 

The rupee settled 0.3% higher at 82.5550 a dollar. 

The Indian currency started the day slightly higher at 82.7400 a dollar, tracking a sharp decline in crude oil prices, dealers said.

Crude oil prices plunged over 5% on Wednesday on worries over global recession and rising COVID-19 cases in China. Crude oil registered the steepest fall in the initial trading days of a year in over three decades. 

At 1649 IST, the March contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $79.41 a barrel against $77.84 on Wednesday. The contract settled at $82.1 a bbl on Tuesday.

Moreover, the Indian unit got support from a fall in the dollar index. The dollar index fell after the US Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting minutes failed to give any new cues on the size of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve in its February meeting. 

At 1649 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 104.19 against 104.24 on Wednesday, 104.51 on Tuesday. It fell to a low of 103.99 during the day.

The Indian unit rose further as foreign banks stepped into sell dollars for foreign fund inflows. 

"There was good selling (of dollars) for inflows which is why it (the rupee) went around 82.66-82.67(a dollar) level," a dealer from a private bank said.

Dealers said ease in dollar demand on behalf of oil importers also provided support to the domestic unit, dealers said. 

"Oil importers were buying so much during the past few days but now after the sharp fall in prices yesterday, looks like they are looking for more attractive prices," said a dealer with a big state-owned bank. 

During the last leg of the trade, the rupee rose to the day's high of 82.5425 a dollar as stop losses were triggered on long dollar bets around 82.65-82.60 a dollar levels, after state-owned and foreign banks stepped up their greenback sales on behalf of foreign institutional investors. 

Dealers said stop losses were triggered after traders rushed to sell dollars to cover their existing long bets. 

"Once the rupee breached the level of 82.65 (a dollar), stop losses were triggered, so it (rupee) went higher," a dealer from a state-owned bank said.

Moreover, the yuan was up 0.4% against the dollar as trade relation with major partner Australia improved after reports said that China is considering a partial end to its ban on imports of Australian coal. This too provided support to the Indian currency, dealers said. 

However, a fall in domestic share indices dampened the sentiment for the local unit. The benchmark share indices, Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.5% and 0.3% down, respectively.

FORWARDS

The premiums on dollar/rupee forwards rose today as importers booked forward contracts on expectation of weakness in the rupee in the long term, dealers said.

"The rupee has been avoiding the 83 (a dollar) mark for quite some time now, but it has to breach at one point," a dealer with a state-owned bank said. "Importers are paying as they expect the rupee to touch 84."

The premium on the one-year, exact-period dollar/rupee forward contract was at 169.84 paise as against 167.31 paise at close on Wednesday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 2.06% as against 2.01% at close of the previous session.

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the Indian unit will take cues from overnight movement in the dollar index and crude oil prices, dealers said.

Market participants are now waiting for Friday's US jobs report for further cues on US Federal Reserve's rate hike plan.

Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in to sell dollars to prevent the Indian currency from falling beyond the psychologically-crucial 83-per-dollar mark.

Dealers have pegged immediate technical support for the rupee at 83.00 a dollar.

The rupee is seen moving in a band of 82.60-83.00 a dollar, dealers said.

India Rupee - World FX: Canadian dlr down; Swiss franc gains

MUMBAI – The Canadian dollar was down against the dollar along with other commodity-linked currencies tracking fall in crude oil prices.

Brent crude oil has fallen by about 9.4% this week, its steepest two-day fall at the start of the year since January 1991, reports said.

The yen was up 0.1% against the dollar after Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan plans to raise its forecast for core inflation in quarterly projections due this month, although the bank still has no plans to immediately raise interest rates.

The Swiss franc was up 0.3% against the dollar as investors cheered inflation data for December, which fell to 2.8% on year from 3.0% in the previous month, showing headline inflation slowed more than expected in December. (Kabir Sharma)

India Rupee: In narrow band on lack of cues; US jobs data on Fri eyed

NEW DELHI – The rupee moved in a narrow range against the greenback as traders avoided placing large bets due to absence of significant cues, dealers said.

So far today, the Indian currency has moved in a tight range of 13 paise.

"The FOMC minutes were completely priced in and there was no surprise, we are waiting for NFP (non-farm payroll) data tomorrow (Friday) to take a position," said a dealer with a big state-owned bank.

Market participants are now waiting for Friday's US jobs report for further cues on US Federal Reserve's rate hike plan.

Meanwhile, some foreign banks sold dollars, likely for foreign fund inflows which supported the Indian unit, dealers said.

Dealers said ease in dollar demand on behalf of oil importers also provided support to the domestic unit, dealers said. 

Crude oil prices plunged more than 5% on Wednesday as the uncertainty over COVID situation in China due to rising cases affected the demand outlook for crude oil.

At 1405 IST, the March contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $78.52 a barrel against $77.84 on Wednesday. The contract settled at $82.1 a bbl on Tuesday.

Dealers have pegged immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 82.60 a dollar.

The rupee is seen moving in a band of 82.60-83.00 a dollar, dealers said. (Ananya Chaudhuri)

India Rupee: Tad up as crude prices fall 5% Wed; dollar index down

MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly against the dollar today as prices of crude oil fell by more than 5% on Wednesday over uncertainty about COVID-19 situation in China, dealers said. 

Prices of crude oil registered their steepest fall in the initial trading days of a year in over three decades. Brent has fallen by about 9.4% this week, its steepest two-day fall at the start of a year since January 1991, reports said.

Data from China showed that while no new coronavirus variant has been found, the country has under-represented how many people have died in its recent, rapidly-spreading outbreak, World Health Organisation officials said.

At 0936 IST, the March contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $78.60 a barrel against $77.84 on Wednesday. The contract settled at $82.1 a bbl on Tuesday. 

Moreover, the greenback fell after the minutes of the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting failed to surprise market participants, dealers said. This too supported the Indian unit, dealers said.  

"The minutes of FOMC were exactly as anticipated and did not have much effect on the market," a dealer with a state-owned bank said. "However the minutes indicated that this is not the peak rate and their will be further rate hikes," he said. 

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also said on Wednesday that he sees the Fed’s target interest rate peaking at 5.4%, higher than current market expectation of just under 5%. 

At 0936 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 104.22 in the Asian trade against 104.24 on Wednesday. It was at 104.51 on Tuesday.

Dealers have pegged immediate technical support for the rupee at 83.00 a dollar.

The rupee is seen moving in a band of 82.60-83.00 a dollar, dealers said. (Kabir Sharma) 

India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; dollar remains dn after FOMC minutes

MUMBAI – Asian currencies were mixed against the dollar in early trade today. The US dollar fell against most major currencies as the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's meeting failed to provide any new information about the size of the rate hike by the Federal Reserve in February.

The Singapore dollar was up 0.1% against the dollar as it continued to gain support from faster-than-expected growth in the country's economy. Singapore's economy grew 3.8% in 2022, beating the forecast of 3.5%.

The Thai Baht was up 0.3% against the dollar and was on a seven-month high as easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China boosted the economy of the tourism-reliant country. 

However, the Indonesian rupiah and Taiwanese dollar were down 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. (Kabir Sharma) 

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 5

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee today, as forecasted by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

(Kabir Sharma) 

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Maheswaran Parameswaran

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 /+91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2023. All rights reserved.