Informist, Tuesday, Feb 7, 2023
By Ananya Chaudhuri
NEW DELHI – The rupee ended steady against the dollar today as dollar sales by exporters offset the impact of dollar buys by oil companies and importers, dealers said.
The rupee settled at 82.7000 a dollar, little changed from Monday's close of 82.7250 a dollar, which was at a one-month low.
The rupee had opened steady against the US currency, but fell shortly after to the day's low of 82.7950 as the dollar index was firm near a one-month high it hit on Monday after stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data surprised the markets, dealers said.
The dollar appreciated against major currencies as the US non-farm payroll rose by 517,000 in January, which was the highest in six months. It was also much higher than the forecast of an increase of 185,000 as per a poll by Reuters.
The strong labour market data led to expectations that the US Federal Reserve may stay hawkish for a longer period than earlier expected.
Fed fund futures are now pricing in the target rate to peak at above 5.1% in June or July as the central bank officials had previously predicted, and then to decline to 4.83% in December.
At 1626 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.57 as against 103.62 on Monday. It was at 102.92 on Friday. The index touched a one-month high of 103.77 on Monday.
The Indian unit recouped losses and rose to the day's high of 82.6300 a dollar as banks stepped in to sell the US currency at around 82.70 a dollar for exporters who wanted to take advantage of relatively higher dollar/rupee levels.
"After touching 82.79-82.80 (a dollar), it (rupee) came off lows. Exporters are selling (dollars) as these are good levels for them," a dealer with a private bank said.
However, dealers said, some state-owned banks stepped in to buy the US currency on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, which weighed on the local unit.
Crude oil prices rose today as concerns over supply rose after an earthquake caused a major export terminal in Ceyhan, Turkey to close and a field in the North Sea to shut unexpectedly.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, which is the world's top oil exporter, raised prices of crude oil for the Asia region for the first time in six months on hopes of demand recovery from China.
At 1628 IST, the April contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $82.54 a barrel against $80.99 a bbl on Monday. It was $79.94 a bbl on Friday.
Fall in domestic share indices also weighed on the rupees, dealers said. The Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.4% and 0.2% lower, respectively.
Dealers said investors were also cautious ahead of the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Wednesday. The central bank is expected to raise the policy rate by another 25 basis points.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 82.7000 | 82.6500 | 82.6300 | 82.7950 | 82.7250 |
FORWARDS
Premiums on dollar/rupee one-year forward contracts fell further today tracking a rise in US Treasury yields, dealers said.
Yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury note hit a four-week high as a stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data shocked market participants.
Premiums on forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.
Traders are now closely watching the Reserve Bank of India's policy outcome on Wednesday.
Premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract was 173.66 paise, against 176.26 paise on Monday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 2.10%, against the previous close of 2.13%.
OUTLOOK
On Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from overnight movement in the dollar index after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Economic Club of Washington later today, for further guidance on the central bank's rate hike path.
The rupee may also track overnight movement in the crude oil prices, dealers said.
Dealers said traders are also waiting for the result of MPC meeting outcome.
"Market now looks at tomorrow's monetary policy of RBI for taking a call on INR (rupee)," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.
The next technical support for rupee is pegged at 82.80 a dollar, dealers said. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 82.40-82.80 a dollar during the day, they said.
India Rupee: In narrow range; exporters' dollar sales lend support
| AT 1254 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 82.6925 | 82.6500 | 82.6300 | 82.7950 | 82.7250 |
MUMBAI – The rupee remained in a narrow range against the dollar as banks' dollar sales on behalf of exporters offset the impact of their dollar buys for importers and oil companies, dealers said.
Some public sector banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said. However, noting the higher dollar/rupee levels, some banks sold the greenback on behalf of corporates and exporters, which limited the losses for the rupee.
"As always, oilers are there, but volumes are low so it (rupee) will stay range-bound," a dealer with a state-owned bank said.
So far, the Indian unit has traded in a range of 17 paise. "There was selling (of dollars) by corporates and exporters on dips (dollar/rupee) around 82.70," a dealer with a big state-owned bank said.
Meanwhile, dealers are awaiting US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech for further guidance on the central bank's rate hike view. Powell is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of Washington at 2300 IST today.
The dollar index remained near the one-month high it touched on Monday, which also curbed the gains for the rupee, dealers said. The dollar appreciated sharply against other major currencies on Monday after stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data surprised the markets. Non-farm payrolls in the country increased by 517,000 in January, which was the highest in six months. Economists had expected a gain of 185,000, as per a Reuters poll. The data for December was also revised higher to show 260,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 223,000.
At 1254 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.52 as against 103.62 on Monday. It was at 102.92 on Friday. The index touched a one-month high of 103.77 on Monday.
Further, a fall in domestic share indices also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 1252 IST, the Nifty 50 was down 0.6% and the Sensex was down 0.7%.
Market participants are now awaiting the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee's meeting, due Wednesday, for further guidance on the Reserve Bank of India's rate hike path. Most market participants have factored in a 25-basis-point hike.
Dealers have pegged the next technical support for the rupee at 82.80 a dollar.
The unit is expected to move in the range of 82.50-82.80 a dollar, dealers said. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Down as dlr remains firm; exporters dlr sales support
| AT 0951 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 82.7375 | 82.6500 | 82.6400 | 82.7550 | 82.7250 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was slightly down against the dollar as the greenback remained steady after reaching a near one-month high on Monday, dealers said.
The dollar appreciated sharply on Monday after US non-farm payrolls data shocked the markets. Non-farm payrolls increased by 517,000 last month, the highest in six months. In a Reuters poll, economists had expected a gain of 185,000. Data for December was also revised higher to show 260,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 223,000.
At 0940 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.47 as against 103.62 on Monday. It was at 102.92 on Friday.
Some banks sold dollars for exporters which supported the rupee, dealers said.
"Exporters are selling as these are good levels, and they can book profits," a dealer with a state-owned bank said.
However, some banks may also buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies, which might weigh on the rupee, dealers said.
A continued weakening of the domestic share indices also weighed on the rupee, dealers said.
At 0939 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were both down 0.1%.
Dealers have pegged next technical support for the rupee at 82.80 a dollar.
The rupee is expected to move in the range of 82.50-82.80 a dollar, dealer said. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee - Asia FX:Mixed, dlr index at 3-wk high, local shrs gain
NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the greenback as the dollar index remained around a three-week-high it hit on Monday. Gains in local shares, however, aided some of the currencies in the region.
The dollar index stayed firm as the market now expects the US Federal Reserve to remain hawkish for a prolonged period after data showed jobs in the US increased more-than-expected in January.
Fed fund futures are now pricing in the Fed's target rate to peak at above 5.1% in June or July as Fed officials had previously projected, and then to decline to 4.83% in December.
At 0945 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.47 as against 103.62 on Monday. It was at 102.92 on Friday.
The Malaysian ringgit was down 0.9% against the greenback, and the Philippine peso and Indonesian rupiah were down 0.6% each.
However, the Asian currencies found support from a rise in the local share indices. The Asian share indices rose as traders await the policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, due on Wednesday.
The Hang Seng and Jakarta Composite Indices were both up 0.8% today.
The Chinese yuan was 0.2% higher against the US dollar after China, the world's largest outbound tourism market, reopened outbound group tour on Monday.
The Thai baht was 0.6% up against the greenback as the country's tourism sector is expected to get a boost from China resuming outbound tourism. (Ananya Chaudhuri)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 7
NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee today, as forecasted by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| Participants | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 82.90 | 82.35 |
| Foreign bank | 82.95 | 82.40 |
| Foreign bank | 82.80 | 82.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 82.85 | 82.55 |
| Brokerage firm | 83.00 | 82.50 |
(Ananya Chaudhuri)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Ashish Shirke
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2023. All rights reserved.
Informist, Tuesday, Feb 7, 2023
By Ananya Chaudhuri
NEW DELHI – The rupee ended steady against the dollar today as dollar sales by exporters offset the impact of dollar buys by oil companies and importers, dealers said.
The rupee settled at 82.7000 a dollar, little changed from Monday's close of 82.7250 a dollar, which was at a one-month low.
The rupee had opened steady against the US currency, but fell shortly after to the day's low of 82.7950 as the dollar index was firm near a one-month high it hit on Monday after stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data surprised the markets, dealers said.
The dollar appreciated against major currencies as the US non-farm payroll rose by 517,000 in January, which was the highest in six months. It was also much higher than the forecast of an increase of 185,000 as per a poll by Reuters.
The strong labour market data led to expectations that the US Federal Reserve may stay hawkish for a longer period than earlier expected.
Fed fund futures are now pricing in the target rate to peak at above 5.1% in June or July as the central bank officials had previously predicted, and then to decline to 4.83% in December.
At 1626 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.57 as against 103.62 on Monday. It was at 102.92 on Friday. The index touched a one-month high of 103.77 on Monday.
The Indian unit recouped losses and rose to the day's high of 82.6300 a dollar as banks stepped in to sell the US currency at around 82.70 a dollar for exporters who wanted to take advantage of relatively higher dollar/rupee levels.
"After touching 82.79-82.80 (a dollar), it (rupee) came off lows. Exporters are selling (dollars) as these are good levels for them," a dealer with a private bank said.
However, dealers said, some state-owned banks stepped in to buy the US currency on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, which weighed on the local unit.
Crude oil prices rose today as concerns over supply rose after an earthquake caused a major export terminal in Ceyhan, Turkey to close and a field in the North Sea to shut unexpectedly.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, which is the world's top oil exporter, raised prices of crude oil for the Asia region for the first time in six months on hopes of demand recovery from China.
At 1628 IST, the April contract of Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $82.54 a barrel against $80.99 a bbl on Monday. It was $79.94 a bbl on Friday.
Fall in domestic share indices also weighed on the rupees, dealers said. The Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.4% and 0.2% lower, respectively.
Dealers said investors were also cautious ahead of the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Wednesday. The central bank is expected to raise the policy rate by another 25 basis points.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 82.7000 | 82.6500 | 82.6300 | 82.7950 | 82.7250 |
FORWARDS
Premiums on dollar/rupee one-year forward contracts fell further today tracking a rise in US Treasury yields, dealers said.
Yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury note hit a four-week high as a stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data shocked market participants.
Premiums on forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.
Traders are now closely watching the Reserve Bank of India's policy outcome on Wednesday.
Premium on the one-year dollar/rupee contract was 173.66 paise, against 176.26 paise on Monday. On an annualised basis, the premium was at 2.10%, against the previous close of 2.13%.
OUTLOOK
On Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from overnight movement in the dollar index after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Economic Club of Washington later today, for further guidance on the central bank's rate hike path.
The rupee may also track overnight movement in the crude oil prices, dealers said.
Dealers said traders are also waiting for the result of MPC meeting outcome.
"Market now looks at tomorrow's monetary policy of RBI for taking a call on INR (rupee)," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.
The next technical support for rupee is pegged at 82.80 a dollar, dealers said. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 82.40-82.80 a dollar during the day, they said.
India Rupee: In narrow range; exporters' dollar sales lend support
| AT 1254 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 82.6925 | 82.6500 | 82.6300 | 82.7950 | 82.7250 |
MUMBAI – The rupee remained in a narrow range against the dollar as banks' dollar sales on behalf of exporters offset the impact of their dollar buys for importers and oil companies, dealers said.
Some public sector banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said. However, noting the higher dollar/rupee levels, some banks sold the greenback on behalf of corporates and exporters, which limited the losses for the rupee.
"As always, oilers are there, but volumes are low so it (rupee) will stay range-bound," a dealer with a state-owned bank said.
So far, the Indian unit has traded in a range of 17 paise. "There was selling (of dollars) by corporates and exporters on dips (dollar/rupee) around 82.70," a dealer with a big state-owned bank said.
Meanwhile, dealers are awaiting US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech for further guidance on the central bank's rate hike view. Powell is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of Washington at 2300 IST today.
The dollar index remained near the one-month high it touched on Monday, which also curbed the gains for the rupee, dealers said. The dollar appreciated sharply against other major currencies on Monday after stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data surprised the markets. Non-farm payrolls in the country increased by 517,000 in January, which was the highest in six months. Economists had expected a gain of 185,000, as per a Reuters poll. The data for December was also revised higher to show 260,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 223,000.
At 1254 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.52 as against 103.62 on Monday. It was at 102.92 on Friday. The index touched a one-month high of 103.77 on Monday.
Further, a fall in domestic share indices also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 1252 IST, the Nifty 50 was down 0.6% and the Sensex was down 0.7%.
Market participants are now awaiting the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee's meeting, due Wednesday, for further guidance on the Reserve Bank of India's rate hike path. Most market participants have factored in a 25-basis-point hike.
Dealers have pegged the next technical support for the rupee at 82.80 a dollar.
The unit is expected to move in the range of 82.50-82.80 a dollar, dealers said. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Down as dlr remains firm; exporters dlr sales support
| AT 0951 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 82.7375 | 82.6500 | 82.6400 | 82.7550 | 82.7250 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was slightly down against the dollar as the greenback remained steady after reaching a near one-month high on Monday, dealers said.
The dollar appreciated sharply on Monday after US non-farm payrolls data shocked the markets. Non-farm payrolls increased by 517,000 last month, the highest in six months. In a Reuters poll, economists had expected a gain of 185,000. Data for December was also revised higher to show 260,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 223,000.
At 0940 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.47 as against 103.62 on Monday. It was at 102.92 on Friday.
Some banks sold dollars for exporters which supported the rupee, dealers said.
"Exporters are selling as these are good levels, and they can book profits," a dealer with a state-owned bank said.
However, some banks may also buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies, which might weigh on the rupee, dealers said.
A continued weakening of the domestic share indices also weighed on the rupee, dealers said.
At 0939 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were both down 0.1%.
Dealers have pegged next technical support for the rupee at 82.80 a dollar.
The rupee is expected to move in the range of 82.50-82.80 a dollar, dealer said. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee - Asia FX:Mixed, dlr index at 3-wk high, local shrs gain
NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the greenback as the dollar index remained around a three-week-high it hit on Monday. Gains in local shares, however, aided some of the currencies in the region.
The dollar index stayed firm as the market now expects the US Federal Reserve to remain hawkish for a prolonged period after data showed jobs in the US increased more-than-expected in January.
Fed fund futures are now pricing in the Fed's target rate to peak at above 5.1% in June or July as Fed officials had previously projected, and then to decline to 4.83% in December.
At 0945 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 103.47 as against 103.62 on Monday. It was at 102.92 on Friday.
The Malaysian ringgit was down 0.9% against the greenback, and the Philippine peso and Indonesian rupiah were down 0.6% each.
However, the Asian currencies found support from a rise in the local share indices. The Asian share indices rose as traders await the policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia, due on Wednesday.
The Hang Seng and Jakarta Composite Indices were both up 0.8% today.
The Chinese yuan was 0.2% higher against the US dollar after China, the world's largest outbound tourism market, reopened outbound group tour on Monday.
The Thai baht was 0.6% up against the greenback as the country's tourism sector is expected to get a boost from China resuming outbound tourism. (Ananya Chaudhuri)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 7
NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee today, as forecasted by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| Participants | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 82.90 | 82.35 |
| Foreign bank | 82.95 | 82.40 |
| Foreign bank | 82.80 | 82.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 82.85 | 82.55 |
| Brokerage firm | 83.00 | 82.50 |
(Ananya Chaudhuri)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Ashish Shirke
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2023. All rights reserved.
