India to drive growth in global oil demand in 2022-2045, says OPEC

India to drive growth in global oil demand in 2022-2045, says OPEC

Informist, Monday, Oct 9, 2023


--OPEC global oil supply share to rise to 40% by 2045 from 34% 
--OPEC: Global oil demand seen rising to 116 mln bpd in 2045 
--OPEC: Global oil demand seen rising to 110.2 mln bpd in 2028 
--OPEC: China's oil demand seen rising by 4 mln bpd during 2022-45 
--OPEC: India's oil demand seen rising by 6.6 mln bpd during 2022-45 


MUMBAI – India is set to become the biggest contributor to growth in global oil demand between 2022 and 2045 with an expanding population and its demand for transport fuels, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said today. 


India's oil demand is expected to grow by 6.6 mln barrels per day during the next 23 years to stand at 11.7 mln bpd by 2045, the cartel said in its World Oil Outlook 2023.   


"Strong economic growth will drive demand for freight transport, leading to incremental demand for diesel in the road transportation sector," OPEC said. "It will also lead to a fast expansion of the middle class which, in combination with urbanisation and improved road infrastructure, results in a more than quadrupling of the number of passenger vehicles between 2022 and 2045 (in India)," OPEC said in the report. 


Total oil demand is forecast to grow by 16.4 mln bpd during 2022-2045 to reach a record of 116 mln bpd, the cartel said in the report. Most of this growth in demand is forecast from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development at 26 mln bpd between 2022 and 2045, according to the report. 


After India, China is likely to become the second-biggest contributor to global oil demand growth between 2022 and 2045. Demand from China is seen rising by 4 mln bpd during the period to 18.8 mln bpd, the cartel said.


For OECD countries, growth in demand is expected to contract by 9.3 mln bpd to 36.7 mln bpd by 2045, OPEC said. In 2022, demand growth was around 46 mln bpd, the cartel said. 


In the medium term, OPEC sees global oil demand rising by 10.6 mln bpd to 110.2 mln bpd by 2028, the cartel said. In the non-OECD region, demand growth in the same period is forecast at 10.1 mln bpd, while OECD is likely to clock growth of only 500,000 bpd, according to the report. 


Globally, the largest incremental demand during 2022-2045 is projected for road transportation, petrochemical and aviation sectors, OPEC said. 


It further added that the penetration of electric vehicles in India is likely to become subdued during the next 23 years, with the large majority of vehicles using internal combustion engines. "This is forecast to increase India's gasoline demand by around 1.6 mb/d over the forecast period, and further support diesel demand in road transportation," OPEC said.


In India, residential oil demand is expected to face competition in areas where access to natural gas is improved as part of the country's city gas distribution programme, the cartel said in the report. 


On the aviation front, demand for the fuel in India is expected to expand more than 6% annually.


"Another specific of the Indian oil market is the relatively high demand for the group of 'other products', such as bitumen, pet coke, lubes and waxes," OPEC said. Most of these products are likely to be used to expand the road network, as refinery fuels, and to produce energy-intensive good such as cement, aluminium and steel, it said. 


As for global oil supply from non-OECD countries, growth is seen at nearly 7 mln bpd by 2028, the cartel said. Total crude oil supply from non-OECD countries is likely to stand at 72.7 mln bpd in 2028. "Incremental supply in the US makes up nearly half of this, at 3.4 mb/d, with other major drivers being Brazil, Guyana, Canada, Qatar and Norway."


Additionally, demand for crude oil from OPEC countries is seen rising to 37.7 mln bpd by 2028, and to 46.1 mln bpd by 2045, the cartel said. In 2022, demand for crude oil from OPEC members was at 34.2 mln bpd. The increase in demand for crude from OPEC countries is expected to raise the share of global oil supply to 40% by 2045 from 34% last year, according to the report.  End


Reported by Sayantan Sarkar

Edited by Avishek Dutta


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