Informist, Thursday, May 25, 2023
MUMBAI – India is likely to produce a record 330.5 mln tn food grain in the current crop year ending June, according to the third advance estimate released by the farm ministry today. Production of food grain is seen nearly 5% higher on year.
In its second advance estimate released in February, the government had pegged food grain output for 2022-23 (Jul-Jun) at 323.5 mln tn.
In 2022-23, the country is likely to see bumper rice and wheat output. Wheat production is seen at 112.7 mln tn this year against 107.7 mln tn in 2021-22, according to the data. The wheat estimate is slightly higher than the government's second advance estimate for the crop at 112.2 mln tn.
India is seen harvesting 135.5 mln tn of rice against 129.5 mln tn estimated for the previous year. In the previous estimate, rice output was pegged at 130.8 mln tn.
According to the estimates, pulses output is seen at 27.5 mln tn in the ongoing crop year, as against 27.3 mln tn in the previous year.
Chana output for 2022-23 is pegged at 13.5 mln tn largely unchanged from 2021-22. Tur output is seen at 3.4 mln tn compared with 4.2 mln tn in the final estimate of last year.
Wheat output in 2022-23 (Jul-Jun) is seen at a new record high, which is set to surpass the previous high of 109.6 mln tn achieved in 2020-21, according to the farm ministry data.
Estimate for sugarcane has also been raised from the second advance estimate released in February. It is also set to touch a new record high in 2022-23 (Jul-Jun), and the estimate is 12.5% higher than last year's output.
As for the next crop season, which is 2023-24 (Jul-Jun), forecasts of setting in of the El Nino climate pattern and the likely hit on monsoon rains in India this year have raised concern that India's food grain output may be affected.
Crops such as sugarcane and rice are heavily dependent on water.
Last month, the India Meteorological Department forecast normal rains during the Jun-Sep southwest monsoon season at 96% of the long-period average, but also said that the El Nino phenomenon may develop in July. El Nino, an abnormal warming of surface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, is usually linked to lower rainfall in India. The emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may, however, offset some of the El Nino impact, the IMD said.
The following table details the third and the second advance production estimates for key crops in 2022-23 and the final estimates for 2021–22 crops. The table also details changes in percentage terms of third advance estimates and last year's output (values in mln tn):
Crop | 2022-23 (Jul-Jun) Third Estimate | 2022-23 (Jul-Jun) Second Estimate | 2021-22 (Jul-Jun) Final Estimate | Change from 2021-22 (in %) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rice | 135.5 | 130.8 | 129.5 | 4.6 |
| Wheat | 112.7 | 112.2 | 107.7 | 4.6 |
| Bajra | 11.2 | 9.78 | 9.8 | 14.3 |
| Maize | 35.9 | 34.6 | 33.7 | 6.5 |
| TOTAL CEREALS | 303 | 295.7 | 288.3 | 5.1 |
| Tur | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | (-)19.0 |
| Chana | 13.5 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 0.0 |
| Urad | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | (-)7.1 |
| Moong | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 15.6 |
| Masur | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 23.1 |
| TOTAL PULSES | 27.5 | 27.8 | 27.3 | 0.7 |
| TOTAL FOODGRAIN | 330.5 | 323.5 | 315.6 | 4.7 |
| Groundnut | 10.3 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 2.0 |
| Soybean | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15.4 |
| Mustard | 12.5 | 12.8 | 12 | 4.2 |
| TOTAL OILSEEDS | 41 | 40 | 38 | 7.9 |
| Sugarcane | 494.2 | 468.8 | 439.4 | 12.5 |
| Cotton* | 34.3 | 33.7 | 31.1 | 10.3 |
| Jute** | 9.1 | 9.7 | 9.8 | (-)7.1 |
*Cotton is in bales (1 cotton bale = 170 kg)
**Jute is in bales (1 jute bale = 180 kg)
End
Reported by Sayantan Sarkar
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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