Informist, Tuesday, May 11, 2021

By Apoorva Choubey 

MUMBAI – Indian drugmakers, such as Cipla Ltd and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd, stand to benefit from the expected surge in demand for ivermectin, a drug that can likely reduce the risk of contracting COVID-19. However, ramping up production of the drug quickly may turn out to be a challenge, said industry experts. 

The state of Goa has already announced that everyone above the age of 18 will be given a course of the drug, regardless of whether they are infected.

Earlier this week, researchers from Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance claimed that regular use of the oral antiparasitic drug ivermectin may significantly reduce the risk of contracting COVID-19. They have even said that the drug may help end the pandemic. 

The research, published in the May-Jun issue of the American Journal of Therapeutics, is the most comprehensive review of the available data on ivermectin taken from clinical, in vitro, animal, and real-world studies, its authors said. 

All India Institute of Medical Sciences and Indian Council of Medical Research have also recommended use of ivermectin in mild outpatient illness. 

"Ivermectin is bound to see a surge in demand as the recent study could increase confidence in a drug that several doctors were already prescribing for COVID-19," said a senior official at the Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance. The association represents 24 leading research-based pharmaceutical companies in India, which collectively account for over 57% of drug sales in the domestic market. 

The rise in sales of iverm­ectin to 940 mln rupees in 2020 from around 210 mln rupees in the year before that reflects that the demand for the drug shot up because of it being used as a treatment or precautionary measure for COVID-19, according to reports.

Aside from Cipla and Sun Pharma, which command a sizeable market share, Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd, Cadila Healthcare Ltd, Ajanta Pharma Ltd, Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd and Merck Group are the other producers of ivermectin in India.  

Ivermectin presents a huge growth opportunity for Indian drugmakers as it can quickly become a first choice option for people, given the fact that daily coronavirus case additions topped 400,000 in the last week and vaccines are in short supply, said Vishal Manchanda, an analyst at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities.   

The drug, which costs around 5-6 rupees per tablet, may see a 20-30 fold jump in demand even if one were to consider that only 15-20% of the adult population will be interested in taking it, he said. 

Despite the World Health Organization's warning against the use of ivermectin due to lack of wider safety and efficacy data, experts believe demand for the drug may continue to rise in India because public opinion seems to be in largely favour of doing whatever possible to reduce the infection risk. 

Unless state governments and Indian health ministry advise otherwise, ivermectin will probably be in huge demand, said an official at the Indian Drug Manufacturers' Association.

However, drugmakers will find it difficult to add meaningful capacity in a short time as they have already increased production of ivermectin by around 25% over the past one year and utilisation could be running high, said the industry official. 

Sourcing of a higher amount of raw materials could be challenging as some key ingredients are imported from China and companies may have to wait for a while even if they place advance orders with suppliers, said Manchanda of Nirmal Bang.  End

Edited by Shirsha Thakur

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