Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 23, 2025

MUMBAI – Global sugar consumption is projected to continue to expand over the coming decade, although the pace of growth is expected to moderate. Over the next 10 years, global sugar consumption is projected to expand by 1.2% per annum and reach 202 million tonnes by 2034, driven by population and income growth, the Food and Agriculture Organization said in a report.

"With the projected rapid growth in population and income, Asia and Africa are expected to contribute the most to the increase in global demand compared to the reference period, accounting for 64% and 29% of the world total growth, respectively," the organisation said. Dietary shifts driven by urbanisation and increasing disposable incomes are expected to be key drivers of the increase, it said.

In Asia, India is expected to contribute the most to the overall increase in sugar consumption, followed by Indonesia, Pakistan and China. Asia's least developed countries are expected to be the main drivers of the region's annual sugar demand growth of 1.5% over the next decade, it said.

In China, most of the demand growth is expected to come from smaller and less developed cities, while in larger, more developed cities, health concern and government awareness campaigns are likely to slow down the growth, the report said.

Across Africa, least developed sub-Saharan countries are expected to record the highest growth rate in per capita consumption, primarily due to projected increases in disposable income and higher spending on processed foods and beverages, it said. Growth is also expected in North Africa, according to the report.

On the contrary, in South Africa, the declining trend in per capita sugar consumption recorded in recent years–amid government measures to discourage its use, including the sugar-sweetened beverage taxation and public health campaigns–is expected to persist over the next decade. By 2034, per capita consumption is anticipated to reach 15.6 killogram in Africa and 21.2 kg in Asia, both below the projected world average of 23.1 kg per person, the report said.

Similarly, in the traditionally high consuming regions, such as the Americas, the Caribbean and European countries, which usually record the highest level of per capita sugar consumption, has shown a falling trend since 2010. With increase in awareness of their adverse health effects, the declining trend is likely to continue, although at a slower pace, according to the report

Latin America, however, is expected to account for the highest level of sugar consumption. "Over the past fifteen years, high per capita consumption levels have raised concerns about their negative health effects. In response, several countries, including Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and more recently Brazil, have introduced a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages intended to reduce soft drink intake," the report said.

Europe had the highest per capita consumption during the last decade but now gradually adopting healthier diet. Over the next 10 years, the region will experience the biggest decline in consumption among the regions covered in the report, it said. However, a slower pace of decline in comsumption is seen in Ukrain and a few other European countries. Per capita consumption levels are also projected to decline in high sugar-consuming countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

In Japan and Korea, minimal changes are expected, except for the decrease in volume caused by population decline, the organisation said.

The current production and consumption forecasts are expected to push the sugar market into a global production deficit. With lower exportable availabilities from Brazil and India more than offsetting higher shipment from Thailand, world sugar trade in 2024-25 is predicted to contract compared to the previous season. Global import demand is anticipated to decline mainly reflecting lower imports from India compared to the record 3.6 million tonnes imported last season, as well as lower imports from the US, Mexico and the European Union. End

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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