Informist, Saturday, Aug. 9, 2025

By Rajesh Gajra

NEW DELHI – The bottom line performance of Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. for the June quarter on a year-on-year basis is likely to take a hit from a flat growth to a single digit decline in the operating profit. The top line growth is likely to have declined mainly due to a fall in volume but this will be partly offset by an increase in realisations of long steel products sales by the company. The company's volume will likely fall amid early onset of monsoon, according to analysts. Lower input cost will likely result in operating profit growth but it may be in low to mid single digits.

Jindal Steel is likely to report a nearly 18% on-year decline in consolidated net profit to INR 11.02 billion in the June quarter, according to the average of estimates by nine brokerages. In the trailing quarter, the company had reported a consolidated net loss of INR 3.39 billion. Among the net profit estimates, the lowest is INR 9.26 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities and the highest is INR 13.60 billion by the analysts at the institutional equities division of Kotak Securities.

The consolidated revenue from operations of the company is seen at INR 122.27 billion, down over 10% on year and 7.3% on quarter. The revenue estimates range from a low of INR 118.64 billion by Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers to a high of INR 125.61 billion by Kotak. Jindal Steel is expected to deliver a consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation to INR 25.66 billion, according to the average of estimates by eight brokerages.

Jindal Steel will details its June quarter earnings Tuesday. In the March quarter, the company had reported a consolidated net loss of INR 3.39 billion against a consolidated net profit of INR 9.35 billion in the year ago quarter. The company had reported a 2.3% on-year decline in its consolidated revenue to INR 131.83 billion for the March quarter. Shares of Jindal Steel have risen nearly 9% since the March quarter earnings announcement.

Brokerages expect on-year decline of 7-11% in volume for Jindal Steel due to demand weakness. Kotak estimates it to decline 6.7% on year while brokerage Anand Rathi sees it falling 11%. Net sales realisation, however, is seen rising for the company.

Due to higher contribution of long steel products in its steel portfolio, analysts at brokerage firm Anand Rathi expect Jindal Steel to benefit from higher prices compared with other products. "In Q1 FY26 (June quarter) primary long steel prices commanded an 8% premium to HRC (hot rolled coil) and hit a high of Rs 57,200 (INR 57,200) a tonne," brokerage firm Anand Rathi said in its preview report. The brokerage said domestic hot rolled coil prices rose around 7% on quarter to INR 51,965 a tonne in the June quarter on the back of the 12% provisional safeguard duty on steel products for 200 days.

Brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher expects Jindal Steel's net sales realisation to improve 3.3% on quarter on higher long steel product prices. Compared with the year-ago period, however, the steel realisations of the company would likely be down 1.1%, according to Kotak.

The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are seen declining 9.1% by Antique Stock Broking. But in terms of EBITDA per tonne, Kotak estimates it to increase 3.4% on year on the back of lower coking coal costs.

Post announcement of June quarter earnings, investors will watch for management commentary on whether it will retain its FY26 crude steel production guidance of 9-10 million tonnes and a sales volume guidance of 8.5-9.0 million tonnes. Brokerage Motilal Oswal said Jindal Steel's management commentary on pricing and domestic demand will be critical. It also expects management commentary on capital expenditure timelines to be monitored.

Friday, shares of Jindal Steel closed at INR 974.10, down 2.5%, on the National Stock Exchange. As per research reports of brokerages available with Informist, Jindal Steel's shares had 12 buy calls at an average target price of INR 1,025, two hold recommendations, and one sell call.

Following are the June quarter consolidated earnings estimates for Jindal Steel based on reports from nine brokerage firms in descending order of estimate of net profit:

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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