Informist, Thursday, Sept. 11, 2025

By J. Navya Sruthi

MUMBAI – Basmati rice prices usually start falling towards the end of September, ahead of the arrival of the new crop in October. This year, however, market participants expect prices of the premium aromatic rice to increase as the recent deluge in key growing states Punjab and Haryana is expected to have damaged a substantial part of the standing crop.

"There will be a shortage of basmati rice in Punjab and Haryana compared to last year, and we can expect the uptrend in prices to start by early October," said Rahul Chauhan, director at iGrain. Devendra Vora, a wholesale dealer at the Vashi grain market in Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra, expects prices of basmati rice to go up by as much as INR 500 per 100 kilograms in the near term.

On Sept. 1, prices of 1401 and 1121 basmati rice in the Vashi market rose INR 200 to INR 7,500-INR 7,600 per 100 kg and INR 8,000-INR 8,300 per 100 kg, respectively, on concern about damage to the standing crop in Punjab and Haryana. Prices of the aromatic rice have been steady since.

Relentless rain in the past 10 days has resulted in flash floods and landslides in Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi, and Himachal Pradesh. Last week, the water level in the Yamuna river rose above the danger mark and forced the evacuation of nearly 10,000 people from low-lying areas in the national capital, Delhi.

Rainfall in northwest India was 34% above normal at 265 millimetres in August, according to the India Meteorological Department. Of the total rainfall received by the region in August, 125.4 millimetres, or more than 47% of the total, was in the final 11 days starting Aug. 21. This resulted in severe damage to infrastructure and loss of life and crops. All 23 districts in Punjab were affected, making it the state's worst floods since 1988, according to reports. Other states also reported substantial disruption and damage.

While the actual damage caused is still being assessed, the trade believes at least 30% of the standing basmati rice crop in Punjab was affected. Market participants said the arrivals of the new crop are also likely to be delayed by the rains, which will also contribute to the rise in prices. "Arrivals of basmati rice will be delayed by 15 days, and can be expected to start around mid-October," Satish Goel, president, All India Rice Exporters' Association, said.

Punjab accounted for 40% of India's rice exports of 6.07 million tonnes in the financial year 2024-25 (Apr-Mar), according to media reports. The state produced 384,000 tonnes of basmati rice on 812,000 hectares during the kharif season of the crop year 2024-25 (Jul-Jun).

The crop damage is limited to Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh, market participants said. Basmati rice grown in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh has not faced any such challenge so far, they said. So, the damage to the basmati rice crop in the flood-hit areas is unlikely to cause a shortage, Chauhan said. He said there will also be sufficient carryover stock from the kharif marketing year 2024-25 (Oct-Sept) to enable the country to meet both domestic and export demand.

According to the grain and feed annual report released by the US Department of Agriculture in April, India's basmati rice supply in 2024-25 was 12.0 million tonnes from 2.4 million hectares. Traders and industry officials are yet to give the production estimates for the current year as the damage from heavy rains is still being assessed.

Goel said there is not likely to be any issue with exports of basmati rice this year. India's exports in FY26 are expected to be unchanged from FY25 at 6.0 million tonnes, he added. End

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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