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Informist, Friday, Jul 12, 2024
--India Jun CPI combined inflation rate 5.08% vs 4.80% May
--Informist poll estimated India Jun CPI inflation at 4.8%
--India Jun CPI food price inflation 9.36% vs 8.69% May
--India Jun CPI rural inflation 5.66% vs 5.34% May
--India Jun CPI urban inflation 4.39% vs 4.21% May
--India Jun CPI combined index up 1.3% on month
--India Jun CPI food price index up 3.2% on month
--India Jun CPI cereals and products index up 0.7% on month
--India Jun CPI vegetable index up 14.2% on month
--India Jun CPI pulses and products index up 2.5% on month
--India Jun CPI oils and fats index up 0.9% on month
--India Jun CPI food, beverage index up 2.7% on month
--India Jun CPI housing index down 0.6% on month
--India Jun CPI clothing, footwear index up 0.3% on month
--India Jun CPI fuel and light index up 0.1% on month
--India Jun CPI miscellaneous index up 0.3% on month
--India Jun CPI core inflation 3.1% vs 3.1% May
--India Apr-Jun average CPI inflation at 4.9%
NEW DELHI – India's annual inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index rose to a four-month high of 5.08% in June from a 1-year low of 4.80% in May, data released today by the National Statistical Office showed. The rise in the headline print was mainly because of a surge in food prices during the month.
CPI inflation was above the consensus estimate. According to an Informist poll, the headline inflation rate was seen at 4.8% in June. The May CPI print was also revised higher to 4.80% from 4.75?rlier.
Sequentially, the overall index rose 1.3% in June, the biggest month-on-month rise since July 2023. The month-on-month rise in June was mainly because of a 3.2% jump in the food price index. Food inflation was 9.36% in June as compared to 8.69% in May.
The rise in food prices was led by a 14.2% month-on-month jump in vegetables, particularly tomato, onion, and potato. The tomato index surged 48.7% on month in June and the onion index was up 24.2% from the previous month. The potato index rose 12.2% in June from May.
Vegetable prices surged last month largely because of the above normal heatwave days in the country. Apart from vegetables, the pulses index also led to higher food prices in June, as it rose 2.5% from May.
The rise in food prices offset the statistical effect of a favourable base. The base effect was such that had the overall index remained unchanged from May, headline inflation would have eased to 3.7% in June.
Core inflation, which strips out fuel and food items, remained at 3.1% for the second consecutive month in June.
"While the food inflation risks will continue to dominate in near term, we expect the better sowing patterns and spatial distribution of rains to eventually ease the price pressures beyond these volatile months," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, in a note.
With the June print, CPI inflation averaged 4.9% in Apr-Jun, the same as projected by the Reserve Bank of India. CPI inflation has now remained above the RBI's medium-term target of 4.0% for 57 consecutive months. The central bank has projected CPI inflation to moderate to 3.8% in Jul-Sep, before rising again to 4.6% in Oct-Dec and 4.5% in Jan-Mar.
"The central bank will be in no hurry to ease monetary policy given the headroom from robust growth in the backdrop of near term inflation risks," Bhardwaj said. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is next scheduled to meet on Aug 6-8.
The following table details sequential and annual increase in the main components in CPI (Combined):
| Weight | Index for June | Month-on-month change (in %) | Year-on-year change (in %) | ||
| June | May | ||||
| Cereals and products | 9.67 | 190.1 | 0.7 | 8.75 | 8.69 |
| Meat and fish | 3.61 | 234.6 | 2.0 | 5.39 | 7.28 |
| Egg | 0.43 | 190.1 | 1.9 | 3.99 | 7.68 |
| Milk and products | 6.61 | 185.4 | 0.7 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| Oils and fats | 3.56 | 160.0 | 0.9 | (-)2.68 | (-)6.71 |
| Vegetables | 6.04 | 234.2 | 14.2 | 29.32 | 27.39 |
| Pulses and products | 2.38 | 210.9 | 2.5 | 16.07 | 17.14 |
| Sugar and confectionery | 1.36 | 130.7 | 0.8 | 5.83 | 5.70 |
| Spices | 2.50 | 227.7 | 0.2 | 2.06 | 4.27 |
| Food and beverages | 45.86 | 198.4 | 2.7 | 8.36 | 7.87 |
| Pan, tobacco and intoxicants | 2.38 | 207.7 | 0.3 | 3.08 | 3.03 |
| Clothing and footwear | 6.53 | 191.9 | 0.3 | 2.73 | 2.74 |
| Housing | 10.07 | 179.1 | (-)0.6 | 2.69 | 2.56 |
| Fuel and light | 6.84 | 176.2 | 0.1 | (-)3.66 | (-)3.67 |
| Miscellaneous | 28.32 | 182.2 | 0.3 | 3.41 | 3.41 |
| General Index | 100 | 190.2 | 1.3 | 5.08 | 4.80 |
| Consumer Food Price Index | 39.06 | 198.7 | 3.2 | 9.36 | 8.69 |
| INDEX NUMBER | INFLATION RATE (%) | ||||||||||||
| Month | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |
| Jan | 185.5 | 176.5 | 165.7 | 156.3 | 150.2 | 139.6 | 5.10 | 6.52 | 6.01 | 4.06 | 7.59 | 1.97 | |
| Feb | 185.8 | 176.8 | 166.1 | 156.6 | 149.1 | 139.9 | 5.09 | 6.44 | 6.07 | 5.03 | 6.58 | 2.57 | |
| Mar | 185.8 | 177.2 | 167.7 | 156.8 | 148.6 | 140.4 | 4.85 | 5.66 | 6.95 | 5.52 | 5.84 | 2.86 | |
| Apr | 186.7 | 178.1 | 170.1 | 157.8 | 151.4# | 141.2 | 4.83 | 4.70 | 7.79 | 4.23 | 7.22# | 2.99 | |
| May | 187.7 | 179.1 | 171.7 | 160.4 | 150.9# | 142.0 | 4.80 | 4.31 | 7.04 | 6.30 | 6.27# | 3.05 | |
| Jun | 190.2* | 181.0 | 172.6 | 161.3 | 151.8 | 142.9 | 5.08* | 4.87 | 7.01 | 6.26 | 6.23 | 3.18 | |
| Jul | 186.3 | 173.4 | 162.5 | 153.9 | 144.2 | 7.44 | 6.71 | 5.59 | 6.73 | 3.15 | |||
| Aug | 186.2 | 174.3 | 162.9 | 154.7 | 145.0 | 6.83 | 7.00 | 5.30 | 6.69 | 3.28 | |||
| Sep | 184.1 | 175.3 | 163.2 | 156.4 | 145.8 | 5.02 | 7.41 | 4.35 | 7.27 | 3.99 | |||
| Oct | 185.3 | 176.7 | 165.5 | 158.4 | 147.2 | 4.87 | 6.77 | 4.48 | 7.61 | 4.62 | |||
| Nov | 186.3 | 176.5 | 166.7 | 158.9 | 148.6 | 5.55 | 5.88 | 4.91 | 6.93 | 5.54 | |||
| Dec | 185.7 | 175.7 | 166.2 | 157.3 | 150.4 | 5.69 | 5.72 | 5.66 | 4.59 | 7.35 | |||
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
"#Based on imputed data
*Provisional"
End
Reported by Shubham Rana
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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