Cogencis, Wednesday, Feb 20
By Kaushal Verma and Sampad Nandy
NEW DELHI - India's chana output in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) is likely to fall sharply to 8.53 mln tn due to a decline in acreage, according to the average of estimates by 10 market participants polled by Cogencis.
The poll shows chana production this year may be 11.8% lower than the polled estimate for 2017-18, and 23.8% below the government's final estimate of 11.2 mln tn for last season.
Production estimates for 2018-19 ranged between 6.25 mln tn and 10.00 mln tn, while for 2017-18, they were in the range of 7.75-11.20 mln tn.
A smaller crop of chana, which accounts for roughly 40% of the country's total pulses output, could hurt India's self-sufficiency and turn the country into a net importer of pulses after a gap of two years.
"Chana output is seen falling as acreage in Maharashtra and Karnataka declined sharply due to severe water stress," said Hanish Sinha, research head at National Bulk Handling Corp.
According to data by the farm ministry, the area under chana was down 10.1% on year at 9.65 mln ha as of last week. The acreage is unlikely to increase much, as sowing is over in most parts of the country and harvest has already started in some areas in key producers Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Yield of the crop in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is also likely to take a hit this year due to several incidents of ground frost, hailstorm and heavy rains in the last few weeks, Rajasthan Khadya Padarth Vyapar Sangh President Babulal Gupta said.
Weather vagaries during the pod-filling stage could stunt growth of the plants and shrink the size of the grain, hitting overall output.
"Acreage declined as farmers shifted to other crops (like wheat) on hope of better returns, mainly in Madhya Pradesh," an official with a US-based farm business organisation said.
Prices of chana have remained below the minimum support price for almost a year, traders said. Currently, prices in the benchmark Indore market are at 4,100 per 100 kg, lower than the Centre-mandated minimum support price of 4,620 rupees for the crop harvested in 2018-19.
Intellitrade and Monetary Services head Suresh Mantri had a contrarian view to the market and said chana output would be higher this year as productivity is seen rising sharply in Madhya Pradesh--the largest producer--and Rajasthan due to good weather for most of the sowing season. He said better yield in these two states would offset the likely drop in acreage in Karnataka and Maharashtra.
Summary of the Cogencis poll on India 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) chana output:
* Range of expectations: 6.25-10.00 mln tn for 2018-19, against 7.75-11.20 mln tn for 2017-18
* Mean: 8.53 mln tn vs 9.67 mln tn
* Median: 8.88 mln tn vs 9.70 mln tn
* Mode: 8.00 mln tn vs 9.00 mln tn
The output estimates by polled entities:
| POLL PARTICIPANT | 2018-19 (in mln tn) | 2017-18 (in mln tn) |
| National Bulk Handling Corp | 9.80 | 11.20 |
| Switzerland-based multinational company | 6.00-6.50 | 7.50-8.00 |
| National Collateral Management Ltd | 7.10 | 9.90 |
| US-based farm business firm | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| Pulses body | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| All India Dal Mills Association | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| Rajasthan Khadya Padarth Vyapar Sangh | 9.50 | 10.50 |
| Kedia Commodity Comtrade | 9.75 | 10.80 |
| Intellitrade and Monetary Services | 9.60 | 9.00 |
| Angel Commodities | 8.00-8.50 | 9.50 |
End
Edited by Akshit Harsh
