IMD sees fewer cold-wave days over most parts of India this winter

Informist, Friday, Dec 1, 2023


–IMD: Fewer cold wave days seen in east, northeast India in Dec-Feb 
–India Dec rains seen above normal at 121% of long-period avg 
–South India Dec rains seen normal at 69-131% of long-period avg 
–Fewer cold wave days seen in northwest, central India Dec-Feb 
–Above normal minimum temperature seen over most of India Dec-Feb 
–Positive Indian Ocean Dipole weakening 
–El Nino conditions to prevail through Apr-Jun 2024 
–Northwest India Nov rainfall at 14.2 mm, 17% above normal 
–Central India Nov rainfall at 21.6 mm, 54% above normal 
–East, northeast Nov rainfall at 14.2 mm, 37% below normal 
–Rain over south peninsula in Nov at 105.3 mm, 17% above normal 
–India Nov rainfall at 34.6 mm, 16% above normal 

–2023 set to be warmest year on record 

–2015-2023 warmest 9 years on record 


MUMBAI – The India Meteorological Department today said above-normal minimum temperatures are likely to prevail over most parts of the country during Dec-Feb, and that there may be fewer cold-wave days this winter.


During Dec-Feb, many parts of the country are likely to experience above normal maximum temperatures except some areas in central and neighbouring northwest India, where normal-to-below normal maximum temperatures are expected, the weather bureau said at a virtual conference.  


In addition, the presence of El Nino is likely to limit the number of cold-wave days over most parts of northwest, central, and east and northeast India this winter, the weather agency said. The IMD also said El Nino conditions are currently prevailing over the country and would continue till February.


The El Nino weather phenomenon, which is associated with lower rainfall and warmer climate in India, will also prevail through Apr-Jun, the agency said. 


For December, the weather bureau said most parts of the country are expected to experience above-normal maximum temperatures except some areas of central and north India, where normal maximum temperatures are likely. Minimum temperatures are most likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, the bureau said.  


Meanwhile, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which is usually associated with good rainfall in India, is expected to weaken and turn neutral by the end of this year, the agency said. 


Also, 2023 is set to become the warmest year in the last 174 years, from when the agency started keeping records, it said at the conference today. It added that the past nine years – from 2015 to 2023 – is likely to be the warmest period on record, according to data available with the department. 


During December, the last month of the northeast monsoon season, the south peninsular region is likely to receive normal precipitation at 69-131% of the long period average, the bureau said. Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole in December is most likely to be above normal at over 121% of the long-period average, it said. 


"The forecast (for December) suggests that above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the northwest, adjoining areas of central and east India, and some areas of extreme south peninsular India," the department said. 


Below-normal rainfall is likely over many parts of the northeast, north peninsular India, and central regions of the country in December, the bureau said. 


In November, the country received 36.4 mm of rainfall, 16% above the normal of 29.7 mm for the period, according to data by the weather bureau. Rainfall in northwest India was 17% above normal at 14.2 mm last month, while it was 54% above normal in central parts at 21.6 mm, the data showed. In south peninsula, rainfall was at 105.3 mm in November, 17% higher than the normal. 


Only east and northeast India received below normal rainfall at 14.2 mm last month, which was 37% below normal for the period, according to data from the department.  End


Reported by Sayantan Sarkar

Edited by Avishek Dutta


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