Informist, Saturday, Sep 30, 2023

--IMD: Monsoon likely to withdraw from most parts of India by Oct 15

--India rainfall in Sep 13% above normal at 190 mm

--Rainfall in central India 49% above normal at 264.8 mm in Sep

--Rainfall in south peninsula 24% above normal at 198.9 mm in Sep

--India rainfall during Jun 1-Sep 30 5.6% below normal at 820 mm

--El Nino conditions likely to continue till March

--India Oct-Dec rain seen at 88-112% of long period average

--India Oct rainfall seen 85-115% of long period average

--Oct rainfall likely to be below normal in most parts of India

MUMBAI – Rainfall over India during the northeast monsoon season (Oct-Dec) is most likely to be normal at 88-112% of the long period average, the India Meteorological Department said today. 

Rainfall is likely to be normal to above normal in many parts of the south peninsula and northwest India during Oct-Dec, the department said in its long range forecast for the upcoming northeast monsoon season. However, northeast, east-central, adjoining areas, and some areas of northwest India are likely to receive below normal rainfall during the period, it said.

In October, most parts of the country are likely to experience below normal rainfall, with the forecast for the whole country seen at 85-115% of the long period average, the bureau said. 

However, many areas of the south peninsula, northeastern parts and some pockets of northernmost regions of India are likely to receive above normal showers during October, the department said.

The southwest monsoon season, spread over June to September, draws to a close today. Rainfall over the country since Jun 1 till today was 820 mm, 5.6% below normal for the period, the agency's data showed. There were concerns that India may record deficient rainfall for the whole Jun-Sep season after precipitation was 36% lower in August. 

The weather bureau classifies monsoon rainfall over the country as "deficient" if it is below 90% of the long period average. Rainfall between 90% and 95% of the long period average is classified as "below normal", and 96-104% as "normal".

"The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions in the country, received 101% of LPA (long period average) and thus was normal," the weather agency said today. 

In September, the country received 190.0 mm rainfall, 13% above normal for the period, the department's data showed. Above normal rainfall in September somewhat made up for the deficit in August.

In central India, rainfall was 49% above normal at 264.8 mm during the month, while it was 24% higher at 198.9 mm in the southern regions. 

Precipitation was 26% lower than normal in the east and northeastern regions of the country during September, while it was 11% below normal over the northwestern parts of the country, the data showed. 

The department said El Nino conditions are currently prevailing over the country, and are likely to be present till March. Also, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which brings good for rainfall over the country, is likely to weaken by the year-end, the department said.

The bureau further said that the southwest monsoon is likely to withdraw from most parts of India by Oct 15. Earlier today, it forecast that monsoon has withdrawn from some parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, entire Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and Delhi, some parts of west Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan and some more parts of west Rajasthan. 

Conditions are likely to become favourable for monsoon withdrawal from remaining parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh in the next three to four days. It is also likely to start withdrawing from some more parts of west Madhya Pradesh, remaining parts of Rajasthan and some parts of Gujarat during the same time period, the bureau said. 

In October, above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, the department said. Furthermore, above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some areas in northeast India where normal minimum temperatures are likely during October, it added.  End

Reported by Sayantan Sarkar

Edited by Aditya Sakorkar

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