Satta bazaar bets on BJP win in Rajasthan, Cong in two central states

Informist, Thursday, Nov 30, 2023


By Vivek Kumar


MUMBAI – India's betting market, the 'satta bazaar', is abuzz with activity ahead of the results to the last set of Assembly polls before the big General Elections next summer. And the equity market is keeping a close eye.


According to market players, the satta bazaar is warming up to the view that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party may grab power from the Congress party in Rajasthan, but Congress appears to have an edge in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. In Telangana, it seems to be a toss-up between the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi and the Congress.


The counting of votes for elections to the assemblies of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram will be held on Sunday. The exit polls for the same are expected to be released after 1800 IST today, once the last vote in the current round is cast.


"Everyone's waiting with bated breath for the Assembly election results to come on Dec 3. A good indicator is the betting market (satta bazaar)," tweeted Harsh Goenka, chairman of RPG Enterprises, detailing an image with the betting market's predictions.


The market is predicting a clear majority for the Opposition BJP in the 200-seat Assembly in Rajasthan, where anti-incumbency is typically a key factor. According to a regional bookie in central India, the BJP is likely to win 116–119 seats in Rajasthan, while the Congress is seen winning 68–70 seats.


According to the betting markets, Congress could get 117–120 seats while the BJP may win 106–109 seats in Madhya Pradesh, which has 230 Assembly seats.


The Congress is likely to retain power and cross the majority mark in the 90-seat Chhattisgarh Assembly by winning 50 seats. On the other hand, the BJP is likely to win only 37 seats.


In Telangana, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi, formerly Telangana Rashtra Samithi, and the Congress are seen getting 53 seats each, while the BJP may get four.


"Currently, people are playing safe. Things (bets) are likely to pick up later in the day, after the exit polls," the bookie said.


Fund managers have factored in the BJP's victory in Rajasthan, and its taking back of power in the state is crucial to the stock market's expectation of the upcoming General Election. At the same time, a loss for the ruling BJP in Madhya Pradesh could be seen slightly negative, they said.


"It will be a shocker if the Congress retains power in Rajasthan. The market (Nifty 50) can correct 3-5% in that scenario…. The small-cap indices can correct 8-10%," said Naveen Vyas, executive director and fund manager at Microsec Wealth Management.


Priyam Shah, an investment analyst at a Boutique Wealth Management firm, also had a similar view. "(If the BJP does not win Rajasthan), it could (lead to) some fear that instead of the BJP we could have some sort of a coalition in May. But the market strongly (believes) that the BJP will win the General Elections," he said.


Over the weekend, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, addressing a global investors' forum said there was no need for foreign investors to be jittery ahead of the General Elections. India's macroeconomy was well-positioned, and the ruling BJP was set for another term in power, she had said.   


Typically, investors become anxious ahead of national elections due to uncertainty over policies.  End

With inputs from Apoorva Choubey

Edited by Ranjana Chauhan


For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.


Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd, a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt Ltd.


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