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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025

 

By Pallavi Singhal

 

NEW DELHI – The government is likely to release the first advance estimates for the kharif season 2025-26 (Jul-Jun) in the week after Diwali, according to a senior official of the agriculture ministry. The release of the data is delayed as the Centre has been holding consultations with states that have seen heavy rains in the monsoon season, to assess the damages and to get more accurate production numbers, the official said. Usually, the ministry releases the first advance estimate of production for kharif crops in September or October.

 

"Several states have witnessed heavy rains towards the end of the monsoon season. This has helped some crops, and may have damaged others," the official mentioned above said. Asked to specify which crops could have benefitted and which could have sufferedf from the rains, the official said, "Late sown paddy in some areas will benefit from these rains. However, crops such as tur, soybean will see losses," the official said. 

 

The market keenly awaits the government's advance estimates of kharif crops as these help in assessing whether the estimated production is sufficient to cater to the needs of the population, taking policy decisions to regulate market fluctuations, evaluating public distribution, influencing export and import policies, and setting the minimum support prices. India's major kharif crops are paddy, maize, tur, moong, urad, soybean, groundnut, cotton, sugarcane, and jute.

 

Despite likely damages, experts expect the production of most crops to be better or on par with last year on the back of ample rainfall and a rise in overall acreage seen this year. India received 937.2 millimetres of rainfall in the southwest monsoon season so far, 8?ove the normal of 868.6 millimetres. This led to an increase in acreage, which was up 0.6% on year by the end of the sowing period on Oct. 3.

 

According to the official, another worrying factor for the ministry has been a significant rise in maize acreage, which has replaced other crucial crops. "We do not have a problem with farmers sowing the crops and fetching good money for them. But it is concerning how quickly maize acreage has replaced other crucial crops such as soybean and pulses. Another problematic factor has been a rise in prices of maize despite record acreage and a fall in prices of soybean and pulses even though acreage and thus output is seen falling."

 

Acreage of maize has risen 12.6% to 9.5 million hectares this year, while that of soybean has dipped to 12.0 million hectares from nearly 13.0 million hectares a year ago.

 

India's foodgrain production has seen a steady increase over the past four years. In 2021-22, the foodgrain output was 315.7 million tonnes. This went up to a record 329.7 million tonnes in 2022-23. The upward trend continued in 2023-24, with a record foodgrain production of 332.3 million tonnes, an increase of 2.6 million tonnes from the previous year. The number is seen rising even further, as foodgrain output for 2024-25 is estimated at a record 353.9 million tonnes.  End

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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