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Informist, Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025

 

By Taniva Singha Roy

 

MUMBAI – The spices traded on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange have largely been on the downtrend and are likely to trade sideways to down until November end despite festival demand. This can be attributed to high carry-over stock of some spices and low export demand in general, said market participants.

 

Turmeric futures are currently down because of sluggish export demand and anticipation of higher supply. The December contract of the spice, currently the most-active, Thursday was at INR 12,680 per 100 kg, down more than 9% from a year ago. The October and April contracts have been falling since June, as the new December contract was launched at lower than INR 12,000 per 100 kg that month, said Ajay Kedia, founder and director of Kedia Capital Services Pvt. Ltd. The December contract was launched at a lower price due to weak demand amid anticipation of higher supply. The October contract of turmeric is currently at INR 12,060 per 100 kg. It was around INR 14,500 per 100 kg in June.

 

Demand is poor as traders are waiting for prices to fall further because of high carryover stock, hence the downtrend will continue for some time, he said. Diwali may bring in some demand, but prices are likely to increase only slightly and for a short period of time, Kedia said. "Ahead of Diwali, turmeric prices can see support at INR 11,400 per 100 kg and resistance at INR 13,800," he added.

 

Demand from the US, a major importer, is subdued because of the trade tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump and economic uncertainties arising from their imposition. The import tariffs, which were at 10% in April were raised to 50% by August, which made Indian turmeric less attractive to US buyers, and prompted exporters to explore alternate markets, analysts said. Turmeric exports in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) are estimated at 166,000 tonnes, compared to export of 179,000 tonnes in FY25, according to SMC Global Securities.

 

In December, prices are likely to increase to INR 15,000-INR 15,500 per 100 kg because stocks will start depleting by then as exports pick up around that time. The turmeric crop in India is typically harvested between January and March. The newly harvested rhizomes then undergo a curing process such as boiling, drying, and polishing to be converted into a marketable product. The final polished product from the spring harvest is ready for market circulation by the end of 2025.

 

Around the same time, the carryover stock of 3 million bags of turmeric will start depleting as there will higher domestic demand due to the wedding season and turmeric can see some bullish trend, Kedia said. One bag is of around 60 kg.

 

Damage to the turmeric crop in several parts of the country due to late withdrawal of the monsoon season will also push prices upward. "There was quality deterioration and almost 18-20?mage to the turmeric crop in parts of Maharashtra and southern regions," Kedia said. "In the near term, traders are likely to closely monitor weather conditions across southern peninsular India," according to analysts at SMC Global. The extent of damage will only be clear after Diwali, when the weather is drier.

 

CORIANDER

The November contract of coriander on Thursday was around INR 8,484 per 100 kg, down 14% from a year ago. Prices are likely to rise to INR 10,000 per 100 kg by December, due to higher domestic demand during the wedding season, said Manish Gupta, a trader from Rajasthan.

 

"In the spot markets, coriander prices are at around INR 8,000 per kg which is likely to remain at these levels for a month as demand is subdued at the moment and then increase by around INR 1,200 per 100 kg by December," Gupta said.

 

Though both domestic buyers and exporters have adopted a cautious approach, with Diwali just around the corner, market conditions are expected to turn supportive, according to traders.

 

In FY26, coriander exports are seen around 52,000 tonnes, up 47,160 tonnes last year. During Apr-Jul, coriander exports rose 11% on year to 23,447 tonnes, according to data from the Spices Board India.

 

The acreage under coriander could fall in the upcoming rabi season as farmers in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are shifting to other crops such as mustard and wheat due to better realisation and unpredictable weather patterns, said Kedia. This could support coriander prices in the short term. Coriander is a rabi crop and is primarily sown from October to November and harvested from February to March.

 

Moreover, there is a total carryover stock of around 200,000 tonnes, which is almost half of the production of 460,000 tonnes in 2024, according to Hariprakash Sharma, commodity analyst at Igrain India. According to Sharma, coriander prices are likely to remain steady for more than a month due to low export demand, but increase by about INR 400-INR 500 per 100 kg during Nov-Dec, he added.

 

JEERA

Jeera futures have fallen sharply from last year on the NCDEX due to high carryover stocks and low export demand, analysts said. Currently, jeera futures are nearly 26% lower at INR 19,350 per 100 kg from last year.

 

Jeera is likely to trade in the INR 18,850–INR 19,550 range because demand remains sluggish and farmers continue to offload stocks that are ample, according to analysts at SMC Global Securities. Market sentiment remains bearish, with abundant supply and persistent selling expected to limit any major upside, they said.

 

There is a carryover stock of 100,000-150,000 bags, where one bag is around 40 kg, and demand from major importing countries is low. China, one of the major buyers of Indian jeera, has been out of the market. In the 2024-25 season, China's jeera output rose significantly. Estimates project a near-doubling of China's production to 55,000–60,000 tonnes, from 28,000–30,000 tonnes in the prior year. This has reduced the need for imports from India. As per commerce ministry's data, jeera exports declined drastically by 21% to 13,780 tonnes in July from 17,400 tonnes same time last year.

 

Festival demand ahead of Diwali is likely to lift prices slightly. The cut in goods and services tax rates on packed spice mixes to 5% from 18% is expected to reduce prices by 11%, which is likely to boost demand for all spices. This will also support bulk demand for jeera and other spices from the fast-moving consumer goods companies, Kedia said.

 

Increase in demand from Syria and Turkey, two major buyers of Indian jeera, will also push up prices. "But it (the demand) will only come during Jun-Jul, when the domestic availability (of jeera) in those countries falls," said Sharma.  End

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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