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Informist, Thursday, Aug. 13, 2026

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has pegged global wheat supply in the marketing year 2026-27 at 1.10 billion tonnes, up by 510,000 tonnes from July's projection. The department has also raised its estimate for consumption and ending stocks, while it has lowered the projection of global wheat trade from its July estimate, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for August. 

Global wheat supplies have been revised upwards as lower production is more than offset by higher beginning stocks. The department has lowered its production estimates for the European Union, the UK, and Brazil. Production in the UK and EU has been pegged lower as the prolonged above-average temperatures during the grain-filling stage of the crop this summer have affected yields. 

The department has projected 2026-27 ending stocks to rise to 273.25 million tonnes from 272.84 million tonnes pegged in July. Ending stocks are projected higher as increases in Ukraine and Russia have more than offset reductions in Indonesia, Australia, and several other countries, the department said.

Consumption of wheat across the globe is projected at 826.27 million tonnes, up from 826.16 million tonnes seen in July, the department said. Higher feed and residual use more than offsets lower food, seed, and industrial use, it said. Feed and residual use is pegged higher in August--particularly in the EU, with more wheat used for feed consumption amid a further curtailment in corn supplies in the region.

Global wheat trade is revised downwards to 212.71 million tonnes from 213.05 million tonnes estimated in the previous month due to reductions in Russia and Ukraine, partially offset by higher exports from Canada and Kazakhstan. Exports from Russia and Ukraine have been pegged lower on logistical disruptions arising from the rise in war between the two countries in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, the department said.

For India, the department has maintained the country's wheat output projection at 121 million tonnes in 2026-27. Its forecast for domestic consumption is also held steady at 111.40 million tonnes, while ending stocks are also unchanged at 29.50 million tonnes from the previous month.

RICE 

Global rice supply in 2026-27 is projected at 735.43 million tonnes, up slightly from 735.38 million tonnes forecast in July due to higher production in the US, which is likely to more than offset a reduction in Peru, the department said. For 2026–27, the department estimates higher ending stocks and a marginal rise in consumption, while the trade projections are left unchanged. 

The department has raised the estimates of global rice production to 537.27 million tonnes from 537.18 million tonnes last month.

Global consumption of rice is left unchanged at 542.80 million tonnes from the previous month, the department said. There is a fractional rise due to increases in China, Mozambique, and the US, which is more than offsetting reductions for Peru and Guinea, it said.

The global rice trade forecast is also unchanged at 62.78 million tonnes. In 2026-27, global ending stocks are pegged higher at 192.63 million tonnes from 192.58 million tonnes estimated last month due to higher stocks in the US more than offsetting a fall in Iran, the Dominican Republic, Laos, and the Philippines, the department said.

For India, the department has forecast rice production in 2026–27 at 150.0 million tonnes, unchanged from its previous month's estimate. The estimates for the country's rice consumption are also left unchanged at 128.0 million tonnes, while ending stocks are also held steady at 51.0 million tonnes.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Himanshi Gupta

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