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Informist, Monday, Oct. 5, 2026

 

By Somen Bose

 

MUMBAI – Brent crude oil prices are likely to remain volatile in October as renewed concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz keep the risk premium higher, while recovering Gulf crude oil supplies through alternative routes cap the upside, analysts said.

 

"Directional volatility will remain high," Amit Gupta, senior research head at Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd., said, referring to the crude oil market's uncertain direction in October. The outlook reflects the competing effects of disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf producers' efforts to keep crude moving through other channels. While the disruption has reduced barrel flows through the vital oil-shipping choke point, shipments via alternate routes that bypass the strait using pipelines and recovering Gulf exports are providing some relief to the market.

 

The October crude oil contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is seen at INR 8,150–INR 9,645 per barrel this month, according to the median of estimates from eight brokerages polled by Informist. The most-active October contract at 1545 IST was trading nearly 2% lower at INR 8,749 per barrel. The most-active December Brent crude oil contract on the Intercontinental Exchange is seen at $90.00–$109.80 per barrel this month, according to the median of estimates. Brent crude was last trading at $102.49 per barrel, marginally up from Friday's close.  

 

"Gulf supplies are recovering through alternative routes, which has eased some of the supply concern. However, the Strait of Hormuz has not reopened, and inventories have been drawn down sharply, so the market remains tight," Kotak Securities' Anindya Banerjee said. "We see Brent topping out near $110 in October, with key support at $95 and then $92," Banerjee said.

 

The market is caught between two opposing forces: the risk of further disruption to Gulf supplies and signs that exporters are finding ways to restore flows. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk because a prolonged disruption could restrict shipments from major Gulf producers.

 

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have used infrastructure that allows some crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, can move crude from its eastern oil fields to the Red Sea through its East-West pipeline, allowing oil to reach export terminals without travelling through the Strait. The UAE has a similar option through its pipeline to Fujairah. The increased use of alternative routes has helped restore some of the lost supply, although the capacity available through these routes is not enough to eliminate the waterway's importance, Kotak Securities said in a report. 

 

Brent crude futures crossed the $100-a-barrel mark in early September after an escalation in the war raised fears that disruptions could spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz. The supply risk widened further on Sept. 11, when Saudi Arabia said drones launched from Iraq had attacked its East-West oil pipeline. The 1,200-km pipeline has a capacity of around 7 million barrels per day, and its closure puts up to 4% of global oil supply at risk. The pipeline was temporarily shut following the attack, and Brent crude futures on ICE hit a near-four-month high of $109.67.

 

Saudi ‌Arabia has resumed oil tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on the East-West Pipeline. The recovery in Gulf exports has eased the immediate supply shock but has not removed the broader supply risk. Crude oil flows through the West Asian region, including transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and exports from terminals, reached about 18.3 million barrels per day on a seven-day average to Sept. 30, exceeding pre-war levels, according to Kpler data.

 

"A dark-cloud-cover candlestick pattern indicates a bearish reversal," Arthavrksh Financial Services founder Ravindra Rao said. Rao expects crude oil prices to have potentially topped out. "A close below $95 would confirm the reversal," Rao said.

 

These opposing forces are likely to keep crude prices sensitive to developments in the war in West Asia, particularly US-Iran talks and the pace at which Gulf exporters can restore shipments. Analysts expect a wide trading range for Brent in October, with the direction likely to depend on whether supply normalisation gathers pace or disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz intensify.

 

The market also faces uncertainty over the availability of refined products. China suspended fuel-product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau in early October, adding pressure to an already tight global diesel market. Russia’s restrictions on diesel exports have also compounded concerns over product availability.

 

At the same time, the Group of Seven has moved to increase oil and fuel availability through strategic stock releases. The G7 has agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and refined products from emergency reserves. The release is expected to provide additional supply to the market and could limit the impact of further disruptions. The supply response, however, is unlikely to eliminate volatility as long as the war continues and Gulf shipping security remains uncertain.

 

A sustained recovery in Gulf exports could compress the geopolitical premium in prices, while renewed disruption to Gulf production, shipping or the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent towards $115–120, Karthick Jonagadla, smallcase manager, founder and chief executive officer of Quantace Research, said. The brokerage expects crude oil prices on the domestic bourse to broadly track global prices, with movements in the rupee against the US dollar amplifying or cushioning the impact on domestic prices.

 

The following are the estimates from eight brokerages for crude oil prices in October, in alphabetical order of brokerage name:

 

 

Brokerage	ICE support ($/bbl)	ICE resistance ($/bbl)	MCX support (INR/bbl)	MCX resistance (INR/bbl)
Arthavrksh Financial Services	87	109.80	8,100	9,400
Kedia Advisory	90	114.00	7,700	9,700
Kotak Securities	92	110.00	8,300	9,600
LKP Securities	90	108.00	8,000	9,700
Nirmal Bang	--	--	8,000	9,800
Prithvi Finmart	90	112.00	8,270	9,640
Quantace Research	98	108.00	8,200	9,650
Ventura Securities	90	95.00	8,650	9,100
Median	90	109.80	8,150	9,645

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 96.29

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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