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EquityWireOil Stocks Outlook:Seen in range; weak rupee to act as headwind for refiners
Oil Stocks Outlook

Seen in range; weak rupee to act as headwind for refiners

This story was originally published at 20:01 IST on 19 December 2025
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Informist, Friday, Dec. 19, 2025 

 

MUMBAI – The Nifty Oil & Gas managed to end the week higher after a choppy run. The depreciation of the rupee against the dollar is set to be a headwind for downstream companies such as Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd., Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd., and Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. but positive for upstream companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd. and Oil India Ltd.


Analysts expect the current 1180-point level for the sectoral index to act as a strong support until it manages to close above 12000 points, which could then create a clear upside momentum. The Nifty Oil & Gas Friday closed nearly 0.1% higher at 11959.25 points. This week, Nifty Oil & Gas rose around 0.3%, the same as the benchmark Nifty 50.


The index is currently consolidating in a tight range on the technical charts, indicating a phase of pause after recent moves. "In Friday's session, the index managed to close above its previous swing high and also reclaimed its 20-day and 50-day SMAs (simple moving average), with RSI (relative strength index) witnessing a bullish crossover, which is a positive sign," said Vatsal Bhuva, a technical and derivatives analyst at LKP Securities. The 12000-point level is expected to act as range-bound resistance for the index, according to Bhuva.


Subdued Brent crude oil prices could pose near-term risk to ONGC and Oil India's crude realisation, said JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd. The brokerage expects slightly lower production for ONGC and Oil India based on these companies' financial results for the first half of 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) and the management's commentary. Oil marketing companies could witness a sequential recovery in their core gross refining margin to $10.7 to $12.7 billion in the December quarter, the brokerage said. 


Crude oil prices continued to face selling pressures as supply concerns overshadowed the market. This was weighed by rising production expectations from both the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the non-members of the organisation. However, geopolitical tensions, including fresh US sanctions on Venezuelan and Russian oil, provided some downside protection, said Rahul Kalantri, vice president-Commodities, Mehta Equities. "We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile with support seen at $55.15-$54.50 and resistance at $57.20-$58.00 in today's session. In rupee terms, crude oil has support at INR 5,000-INR 4,940 while resistance is at INR 5,150-INR 5,215," he said in a note.

 

 

TOP HEADLINES

* EIA says US natural gas stocks down 167 bcf in week ended Dec 12
* BPCL, Coal India to set up JV for indigenous alternative to imported gas
* India crude oil imports from Russia down in Dec so far, says Kpler
* India Apr-Nov natural gas output down 3% on year; LNG imports down 9%
* PNGRB notifies unified tariff norms; reduces tariff zones to two
* Swan Corp plans to start 5 mtpa Gujarat LNG project by mid-2026, say sources

 

Following are the resistance and support levels for the stocks for next week as per calculations by Informist based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:

 

Company Price Week-on-week
 change in % 
Resistance Support
Bharat Petroleum Corp 365.95 0.30 370.50 359.80
Hindustan Petroleum Corp 469.75 2.10 475.40 459.70
Indian Oil Corp 162.60 (-)0.70 164.50 159.50
Oil & Natural Gas Corp 232.89 (-)2.20 234.60 230.60
Oil India 405.05 0.20 412.20 396.90
Reliance Industries 1565.10 0.60 1586.60 1540.20
         
NIFTY OIL & GAS 11959.25 0.30 12035.70 11830.50
Nifty 50 25966.40 (-)0.30 26059.60 25833.80
S&P BSE Sensex 84929.36 (-)0.40 85243.10 84578.10

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 89.27

 

Reported by Adhithya Aji

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

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