Growth Estimate
India GDP growth likely slowed to 7.5% in Q3 from 8.2% in Q2, says BofA
This story was originally published at 18:35 IST on 18 February 2026
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MUMBAI – The Indian economy likely grew 7.5% in the December quarter, slower than the six-quarter high growth of 8.2% in the September quarter, according to BofA Securities India. Gross value added growth in the December quarter is likely to be higher than GDP growth based on high frequency data, BofA economists Rahul Bajoria and Smriti Mehra said in a report Wednesday.
Gross value added growth for the December quarter is expected to be around 8.0%, slightly slower than the eight-quarter high pace of 8.1% in the previous quarter. Net taxes minus subsidies will decline materially in growth, as the goods and services tax cuts impact net collections, Bajoria and Mehra said.
BofA's GDP growth estimate for the December quarter is based on "our old trackers for the GDP data that we deployed for the series with the base year 2011-12". The December GDP data, which will be released on Feb. 27 with the second advance estimate for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), will be based on the new series with FY23 as the base year. The old national accounts series had FY12 as the base year.
The new GDP series will include data from new sources such as GST filings, e-Vahan data, and payment transactions. "New national income estimates may have variances," BofA said.
The Economic Survey for FY26 said the GDP growth in the December quarter is seen at 7?sed on a nowcast model developed by the economic division in the Department of Economic Affairs. Indicators show strengthening economic momentum in recent months of the back of government reforms, the survey had said.
The Economic Survey has projected India's real GDP growth in FY27 at 6.8-7.2%, lower than the 7.4% growth estimated for FY26 in the government's first advance estimate. End
Reported by Shubham Rana
Edited by Ashish Shirke
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