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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 14, 2026

 

--IEA: Global oil demand to fall by 80,000 bpd 2026 on Iran war 

--IEA: Global oil supply plummets 10.1 mln bpd to 97 mln bpd in March 

--IEA: OPEC, allies March output down 9.4 mln bpd on month at 42.4 mln bpd 

--IEA: Resuming flows through Hormuz strait most important for energy supply 

 

MUMBAI – The International Energy Agency has slashed its forecast for global oil demand and supply this year, and now expects both to fall due to the impact of the war in West Asia. The Paris-based intergovernmental organisation now expects global oil demand to fall by 80,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared to its previous projection of growth of 640,000 barrels per day, it said in its monthly oil market report for April.

 

The agency also expects global oil supply to fall by 1.5 million barrels per day this year, against its earlier forecast of a rise of 1.1 million barrels per day. IEA expects global oil demand to have fallen by 800,000 barrels per day on year in March; for April, it expects a drop of 2.3 million barrels per day.

 

Global oil supply plummeted by 10.1 million barrels per day to 97 million barrels per day in March, with continued attacks on energy infrastructure in West Asia and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz leading to the "largest disruption in history",the agency said. Crude oil production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies fell by 9.4 million barrels per day in March to 42.4 million barrels per day, while non-OPEC supply declined by 770,000 barrels per day to 54.7 million barrels per day.

 

"Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy," IEA said in the report. The overall loss in oil exports from West Asia has surpassed 13 million barrels per day, with the associated production curtailments and damages to energy infrastructure resulting in cumulative supply loss of over 360 million barrels in March and a projected 440 million barrels in April, IEA said.

 

"Consumers and refiners alike are tapping into oil inventories to mitigate the immediate impact of supply disruptions," it said. Global oil inventories fell by 85 million barrels in March despite an accumulation of both on-land and offshore inventories in West Asia and further builds in China. "The largest decline came from oil on water following the near halt to sailings from Gulf producers dependent on the Strait. Crude oil stocks in importing countries in Asia dropped by 31 mb( million barrels), with further declines expected in April."

 

Crude oil prices posted their highest ever monthly rise in March following the most severe oil supply shock in history, the agency said. Spot crude benchmarks and differentials soared, outpacing futures markets, as refiners scrambled to replace locked in West Asian cargoes. Physical crude oil prices surged to record levels near $150 per barrel, with the physical-futures disconnect "becoming increasingly acute".

 

At 1415 IST, the price of Brent Crude futures on the Intercontinental Exchange was 1% lower at $98.34 per barrel. The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude futures on NYMEX was down 2.5% at $96.60 per barrel.  End

 

US$1 = INR 93.38

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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