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Informist, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026

 

By Astha Oriel 

 

NEW DELHI – Cement manufacturer Dalmia Bharat Ltd. is likely to report a sharp on-year decline in consolidated net profit for the September quarter due to higher operating costs, weaker cement realisations, and regional pricing pressures, according to brokerages tracking the company. However, analysts said the company's net sales are expected to rise on year due to higher sales volume and increased demand.

 

The consolidated net profit is expected to fall nearly 51% on year and over 68% sequentially to INR 1.16 billion, and the net sales are expected to rise more than 7% on year but decline nearly 6% on quarter to INR 36.65 billion, according to the average of estimates by 17 brokerages.

 

Axis Securities Ltd. has the highest estimate for net profit at INR 4.3 billion and Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd. has the lowest estimate is INR 430 million. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. has the highest estimate for net sales at INR 38.12 billion and Antique Stock Broking Ltd. has the lowest estimate at INR 35.54 billion.

 

Kotak Securities Ltd. expects the company's cost per tonne to rise, led by higher fuel, freight and packaging costs and higher operating deleverage. In the year-ago quarter, the company's total cost per tonne was INR 3,960. Nomura Equity Research expects the company's raw material and power and fuel costs at INR 1,815 per tonne, and the freight cost at INR 1,208 per tonne. In the year-ago quarter, the company's raw material cost per tonne was INR 799, and the power and fuel costs per tonne were INR 1,017. The logistics cost in the year-ago quarter was INR 1,060 per tonne.

 

"We expect residual high-cost inventory to drive a further increase in fuel cost in 2QFY27 (Jul-Sept). Elevated peer competition could also result in higher off-market sales and lead distance, increasing freight costs amid elevated diesel prices. In contrast, packing-cost pressure is likely to remain limited, supported by softer PP/HDPE (Polypropylene or high-density polyethylene) prices during Jul–Sep '26 versus the Apr-26 peak," Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. said in a report.

 

The company's volume is expected 7.0-7.6 million tonnes, as per the estimates of 11 brokerages. In the year-ago quarter, the company's volume was 6.9 million tonnes. "Volume growth is expected to be constrained by annual maintenance shutdowns and the company's high exposure to the east, where flood-related disruptions have impacted demand, partly offset by the recently commissioned Central India plant," Nirmal Bang said. The company's net sales realisations per tonne are expected to be INR 4,995–INR 5,073, according to the estimates by eight brokerages. In the year-ago quarter, the net sales realisations per tonne were INR 4,973.

 

The company's modest realisation growth is unlikely to offset input-cost inflation, leaving the company vulnerable to margin compression despite higher cement volumes, according to brokerages. "Channel checks indicate greater pricing pressure in East and Central India, with cuts of Rs 5-7/bag versus Rs 3-5/bag pan-India. We factor in a sequential realisation decline of ~Rs 51/t and EBITDA/t of ~Rs 780, down ~Rs 279/t QoQ, amid pricing, input-cost pressure, central operation ramp-up cost and operating deleverage," Equirius Securities Pvt. Ltd. said. Nirmal Bang believes the company may have prioritised market-share retention through relatively aggressive pricing, weighing on blended realisation.

 

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to decline 18% on year and over 29% sequentially to INR 5.70 billion, according to the estimates by 15 brokerages. Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. has the highest EBITDA estimate of INR 7.3 billion, and the lowest estimate is INR 5.12 billion by Axis Securities.

 

Nine brokerages estimate the company's EBITDA margin for the September quarter at 14.0-16.2%, which is lower than 20.4% in the year-ago quarter. Eleven brokerages expect the company's EBITDA per tonne to be INR 707–INR 816, which is lower than INR 1,013 in the year-ago quarter due to higher operating costs.

 

The company will announce the September quarter results Monday. Analysts will watch the management's commentary on the asset integration, the ramp-up and capacity commercialisation of the newly acquired Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. plants, and the broader outlook on cost inflation amid higher cement prices.

 

Friday, shares of the company closed nearly 2% lower at INR 1,591.30 apiece on the National Stock Exchange. This was nearly 12.1% lower from on Jul. 24, when the company released its June quarter earnings. Of the 15 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 12 have given a 'buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 2,205 per share. This is nearly 39% higher than the current share price. Two have a 'sell' recommendation with an average target price of INR 2,058 per share, and one has a 'hold' recommendation with a target price of INR 2,000 per share.

 

Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for Dalmia Bharat from 17 brokerage firms, in descending order of net profit estimates, in INR billion:

 

Brokerages	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Axis Securities Ltd.	36.68	4.30	5.12
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.	37.80	2.20	7.30
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	38.12	1.84	6.19
Kotak Securities Ltd. (Blended)	36.97	1.48	5.72
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.	36.61	1.30	5.49
Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd.	36.83	1.30	5.67
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	37.06	1.09	5.71
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	36.20	997	5.77
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	35.99	917	5.73
Nomura Equity Research	35.84	812	5.46
Choice Equity Broking Pvt. Ltd.	36.54	582	5.47
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd.	36.50	575
Antique Stock Broking Ltd.	35.54	547	5.62
HDFC Securities Ltd.	36.77	501	5.47
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	36.36	439	5.45
ICICI Securities Ltd.	36.79	437	5.32
Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd.	36.52	430
Average	36.65	1.16	5.70

 

End

 

Edited by Himanshi Gupta

 

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