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Informist, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI – Hyundai Motor India Ltd. is poised to report a year-on-year fall in its consolidated net profit for the third consecutive quarter as higher costs likely ate into its profitability for the September quarter, according to analysts. A combination of healthy growth in car despatches, an increase in the average selling price of its cars, and a low base are expected to lift the carmaker's top-line growth into the double-digit category for the first time in nine quarters, according to data available with Informist.

 

The company's consolidated net profit for the September quarter is expected to fall 21% on year to INR 12.41 billion, according to the average of 12 estimates. The highest estimate for net profit is INR 13 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 12.13 billion by Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.

 

Hyundai Motor is projected to report a consolidated revenue of INR 204.65 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, which would translate into a year-on-year gain of 17%, according to the average of estimates. The highest forecast for the carmaker's consolidated top line is INR 207.89 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. and the lowest expectation is INR 202.22 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. Hyundai Motor's top line has fallen year-on-year in four out of the last eight quarters.

 

The carmaker sold 219,100 cars in India and overseas in the September quarter, up 15% on year and 23% on quarter. Like most automakers, Hyundai Motor's despatches for the reporting period benefited from a low base as customers had delayed their purchases in anticipation of lower goods and services tax rates.

 

"We expect revenues to increase by 17% on a YoY basis, led by increase in volumes and 2-3% YoY increase in ASPs (average selling price) due to a richer product mix (higher mix of Creta and exports)," Kotak Securities Ltd. said. Most analysts expect the average selling price of Hyundai Motor's cars to improve 1-3% on year for the reporting quarter.

 

"Blended ASPs (average selling prices) are expected to increase 3.1% YoY, 2.3% QoQ, supported by recent price hikes and a favourable product mix. Higher share of export volumes and favourable FX movement will support ASPs," Asit C. Mehta Financial Services Ltd. said. The favourable foreign exchange movement would be because of the company's exports.

 

The Gurugram-based automotive giant is currently undertaking a slew of measures such as increasing manufacturing capacities and launching multiple new cars in key segments and across powertrains in a bid to regain its lost status as India's second-biggest passenger vehicle maker. The company ended 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) with a wholesale market share of 12.4%, down from the peak of almost 18% last seen in FY20.

 

Despite having hot-selling sports utility vehicle Creta in its stable, the company has gradually lost its spot to peers such as Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd. and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. It had a retail market share of 11.75% as of Sept. 30, down slightly on-year. Analysts now expect the company's growth to accelerate Oct-Mar onwards because of new model launches, rising contribution of exports to the overall sales pie, and margin recovery.

 

"Hyundai is well positioned for a sustained recovery in domestic market share, supported by an aggressive product pipeline, improving capacity utilisation and the ramp-up of its Pune facility. We expect market share gains, volume recovery, premiumisation and operating leverage to drive 16?rnings CAGR (compound annual growth rate) over FY26–FY28E, aligning with our structural volume-to-earnings conversion theme," Systematix said.

 

Analysts expect Hyundai Motor's consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the September quarter INR 19.96 billion, down 18% on year. The highest projection for the carmaker's consolidated EBITDA is INR 20.65 billion by Asit C. Mehta and the lowest INR 19.50 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.

 

Analysts expect Hyundai Motor's EBITDA margin to decline 386-440 basis points on year for the reporting quarter. "We expect EBITDA margin to decline by 420 bps on a YoY basis to 9.7% in Q2FY27 mainly due to commodity headwinds, higher cost related to start-up of new Pune plant, and higher discounts, partly offset by operating leverage benefits, cost-reduction measures and price increases," Kotak Securities said. The company had reported an EBITDA margin of 13.9% for the year-ago quarter and 9.3% for the June quarter.

 

Hyundai Motor will disclose its financials for the September quarter on Wednesday. Investors will track the management's commentary on demand and margin outlook, along with product pipeline plans.

 

Friday, shares of Hyundai Motor ended 2.4% lower at INR 1,850 apiece on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has declined a little over 8% since its June quarter earnings were announced on Jul. 30.

 

Of the 12 research reports on the company available with Informist, 10 have a 'buy' recommendation and the remaining are split between a 'hold' and a 'sell' call. The average buy target price is INR 2,408 per share, implying an upside of about 30% on the current market price.

 

The following are the consolidated Jul-Sept earnings estimates for Hyundai Motor India Ltd. from 12 brokerages in descending order by net profit, in INR billion:

 

Brokerages	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.	205.70	13.00	20.40
Nomura Equity Research	204.58	12.74	20.23
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	207.89	12.63	20.28
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	203.96	12.49	19.78
Asit C. Mehta Financial Services Ltd.	205.50	12.44	20.65
Kotak Securities Ltd.	204.90	12.37	19.85
Antique Stock Broking Ltd.	204.40	12.28	20.03
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	202.22	12.25	19.50
ICICI Securities Ltd.	202.65	12.24	19.66
YES Securities (India) Ltd.	206.91	12.22	19.75
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	202.36	12.20	19.53
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.	204.76	12.13	19.86
Average	204.65	12.41	19.96

End

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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