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Informist, Monday, Oct. 26, 2026

 

By Ishaan Arora

 

MUMBAI – Steel Authority of India Ltd. is likely to report a sharp on-year rise in its net profit for the September quarter driven by a sharp rise in sales realisations coupled with a relatively modest increase in sales volumes.

 

The state-owned steelmaker's standalone net profit is expected at INR 18.84 billion, up over 146% on year and up over 6% sequentially, according to the average of estimates from 14 brokerages. The highest estimate for net profit is INR 24.66 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. and the lowest is INR 9.30 billion from IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd.

 

The company's net sales are expected at INR 301.65 billion, up nearly 13% on year, and up almost 15% sequentially, according to the average of estimates. The highest estimate for net sales is INR 320.99 billion from Nuvama while Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. has the lowest estimate at INR 228.90 billion. If realised, this would mark the eighth consecutive quarter of on-year growth in net sales.

 

Nine brokerages estimate the company's sales volumes at an average of 5.1 million tonnes for the September quarter. The only outlier is Systematix estimating sales volumes at 3.6 million tonnes. In the year-ago quarter, the company's sales volume was 4.9 million tonnes. The company's net sales realisation is expected to range between INR 59,893 and INR 63,888 per tonne, according to seven brokerages. Most brokerages expect the company's realisations to rise on year but decline sequentially.

 

The company's crude steel production rose 8% on year to 1.7 million tonnes in August while hot metal production increased 9% to 1.8 million tonnes. Saleable steel production rose 1% on year to 1.7 million tonnes, according to data released by the Ministry of Steel early September.

 

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected at INR 43.83 billion, up 55% on year, and nearly 1% sequentially, according to the average of estimates from 14 brokerages. Nuvama has the highest EBITDA estimate at INR 50.50 billion while the lowest EBITDA estimate is INR 29.87 billion by IDBI Capital.

 

Six brokerages expect the EBITDA margin to rise on year to between 11.6-15.2%. In the year-ago quarter, the company's EBITDA margin was 9.5%. The company's EBITDA per tonne is expected to be INR 7,061-INR 9,698, according to estimates from 10 brokerages. In the year-ago quarter, the company's EBITDA per tonne was INR 5,142. Most brokerages expect the company's EBITDA per tonne to decline sequentially, however, on account of high coking coal costs and weakness in long steel prices.

 

The steel major signed a memorandum of understanding with Bharat Coking Coal Ltd. last month to jointly develop and operate two coal blocks in West Bengal. The agreement aims to strengthen domestic supplies of coking coal, a key raw material in making steel.

 

The company will detail its September quarter earnings Tuesday. Analysts will watch the management's updates on the outlooks for volumes, capacity expansion projects, and debt reduction given it is entering a large capital expenditure cycle.

 

Shares of the company provisionally ended more than 3% up at INR 170 on the National Stock Exchange. The shares are up more than 4% since the company

disclosed its June quarter earnings.

 

Of the 16 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a 'buy' rating for the stock with an average target price of INR 189 per share. This is 11% higher than the current market price. Four brokerages have a 'hold' rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 196 and three have a 'sell' rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 147.

 

Following are the September quarter earnings estimates for SAIL from 16 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit estimate, in INR billion:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	320.99	24.66	50.48
Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd.	322.23	23.84	49.96
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	317.26	22.73	48.79
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd.	319.38	22.50	48.70
Axis Securities Ltd.	316.30	21.56	48.02
Kotak Securities Ltd.	315.14	20.92	46.46
HDFC Securities Ltd.	314.79	20.45	44.40
Antique Stock Broking Ltd.	316.71	19.76	44.85
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	294.65	19.38	44.88
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	311.00	19.00	42.00
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	307.56	18.98	43.03
360 ONE Capital Market Pvt. Ltd.	295.20	16.55	NA
ICICI Securities Ltd.	317.05	16.54	42.26
Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd.	305.00	15.50	NA
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.	228.90	9.70	29.90
IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd.	257.96	9.30	29.87
Average	303.76	18.84	43.83

 

End

 

Edited by Megha Rawat

 

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