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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026

 

By Pratyush Kumar

 

NEW DELHI – InterGlobe Aviation Ltd., the operator of IndiGo airline, is expected to report a sharply higher net loss with its profits affected by high fuel prices due to the war in West Asia and cancellations that offset the benefits of airport fee rationalisation, brokerages tracking the company said. The loss will widen to almost five times the loss the company had reported in the trailing quarter.

 

InterGlobe Aviation is estimated to report a net loss of INR 18.46 billion for the September quarter, according to the average of estimates from nine brokerages. This will be sharply higher than the loss of INR 3.82 billion it reported for the June quarter. The highest estimate for the net loss is INR 30.73 billion from Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 981 million from Prabhudas Lilladher Ltd. This will be the third consecutive quarterly net loss the company will report after the war in West Asia started.

 

Only one brokerage, Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd., expects InterGlobe Aviation to report a net profit. It expects the company to post a net profit of INR 8.56 billion on revenues of INR 241.91 billion for the quarter. Elara also estimates the company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, and rental at INR 45.04 billion. The profit figure comes on the back of a low foreign exchange loss and a rise in airfares during the quarter, Elara said.

 

InterGlobe's net revenue from operations for the September quarter is estimated to rise over 23% on year to INR 229 billion, according to the average of estimates. The highest estimate for the company's revenue is INR 234.5 billion from Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. and the lowest is INR 222.13 billion from Equirus.

 

The aviation sector has faced a challenging September quarter due to weak passenger volumes and elevated fuel and operating costs, Equirus said. Airlines are trying to offset this impact by cutting flying capacity, raise fares, and raising fuel surcharges, the brokerage said. These measures are likely to support the margin slightly instead of fully offsetting cost pressures, Equirus added.

 

Indigo's yield--the average fare paid by a passenger to fly one kilometre--has likely risen 25% on year to INR 5.70, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. said. This was likely supported by a rise in fuel surcharge and higher airfares after the war in West Asia. However, the sharp increase in crude oil prices and jet fuel cracks are expected to keep the fuel cost per average seat kilometre elevated at INR 2.45, up 70% on year. The company is expected to have faced a foreign exchange loss of INR 13 billion in the September quarter, Emkay added.

 

About 43.5% of InterGlobe Aviation's revenue for the September quarter is expected to have gone into fuel costs due to higher aviation turbine fuel prices, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said. The company's management is adopting a measured approach to offset the impact from the seasonal lull and focus on cost efficiency, the brokerage added.

 

The company's EBITDAR, which is EBITDA plus rental, for the September quarter is expected at INR 18.64 billion, up over 67% on year from INR 11.14 billion, according to the average of seven estimates. The highest estimate for EBITDAR is INR 31.23 billion from Emkay Global and the lowest is INR 6.33 billion from Equirus.

 

LOAD FACTOR

Equirus expects InterGlobe Aviation's load factor in the September quarter at 80.8%, down 174 bps on year, because of a subdued demand. Load factor is the percentage of an airline's available seats that are occupied by paying customers. IndiGo's load factor is expected to decline 200 basis points on year to 81%, Kotak Securities said.

 

In an analysts' call after the June earnings, the company management had guided that the load factor is likely to remain flat-to-slightly down in the September quarter. IndiGo has a 65% share of the domestic aviation market. As on Mar. 31, the airline had over 440 aircraft in its fleet and operated over 2,200 flights daily to 141 destinations.

 

Investors will watch out for the impact of fuel costs, fuel surcharge adjustments, growth in international passenger traffic, grounded aircraft, and the leadership transition to the new chief executive officer, Equirus said.
 

InterGlobe Aviation will report its September quarter earnings Thursday.  At 1313 IST, shares of the company traded up almost 2% at INR 4,682 apiece on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is down 6% since the company announced its June quarter earnings on Jul. 23. Of the 11 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 5,865 per share. This is roughly 25% higher than the current market price. One brokerage has a "sell" call at a price of INR 4,100 apiece and another has advised a "hold" at a target price of INR 4,520 apiece.

 

Following are the earnings estimates for InterGlobe Aviation for the September quarter from nine brokerages, in the descending order of the net loss estimates, in INR million:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net Loss	EBITDAR
Equirus Securities Pvt. Ltd.	222,133	30,728	6,330
360 ONE Capital Market Pvt. Ltd.	223,023	29,330	--
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	230,100	24,896	15,458
Kotak Securities Ltd.	233,087	22,285	11,570
Nomura Equity Research	229,700	20,500	14,400
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	234,499	18,148	31,225
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	234,261	13,715	26,377
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd.	226,513	5,518	--
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	227,652	981	25,085
Average	228,996	18,456	18,635

 

End

 

Edited by Biswadip Mitra

 

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