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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar and Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – The rupee surged against the dollar Wednesday, posting its biggest one-day gain in over 16 weeks, as the Reserve Bank of India ramped up its support for the Indian unit drastically, dealers said. "It was just mayhem in the market today. Nobody expected this much of intervention (from RBI). It was just humungous. All longs (dollar bets) were unwound," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

On Wednesday, the rupee appreciated 0.8% against the dollar and ended at 88.0750 a dollar, its highest level since Sept. 17. It touched a high of 87.9100 a dollar, posting its biggest intraday gain since November 2022. Other Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.7% against the dollar, but the Indian currency emerged as the outperformer amongst peers. 

 

The rupee unexpectedly surged against the dollar at open as the RBI heavily intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market right before the spot market opened, dealers said. The central bank extended its intervention to the spot market as well, they said. "The volume itself was not much at the open," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "But lower importer demand (for dollars) as soon as the market opened and illiquidity in the offshore market acted as a catalyst for RBI's dollar sales."

 

The aggressive intervention by the RBI comes after it had kept the Indian unit pinned around 88.80 a dollar for the last few weeks, dealers said. The central bank's aggressive dollar sales was a shift from the sporadic and passive intervention it opted for in the recent days, dealers said.

 

Following the sharply higher opening, stop losses on long dollar bets were triggered across multiple dollar/rupee levels, which further helped the rupee to rise above the psychologically-crucial 88-per-dollar, dealers said. "Earlier, RBI was just keeping a light touch and keeping levels intact. But after today, all the speculative bets are off," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

The apex bank likely sold around $3.5 billion-$4.0 billion in the currency market on Wednesday, according to some dealers. Market participants are of the view that the central bank may have amped up its intervention to drive away traders' speculatory bets against the local unit. They also highlighted that the RBI had opted for a similar intervention strategy in February as well, when it significantly sold dollars in the spot market to boost the Indian unit. 

However, the Indian currency erased some of its early gains as banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most the appreciation in the rupee, dealers said. 

 

Following this, the Indian unit moved to the day's low of 88.3900 a dollar. However, during the last hour of the trade, the domestic currency rose further as the central bank marked its presence in the market through dollar sales again. "It was such a surprise move today," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "RBI has clearly signalled that it won't let the rupee cross 89 anytime soon."

 

Meanwhile, a news report by Bloomberg, citing a source, said the central bank is prepared to continue its market intervention until the Indian currency settles at a stronger level, which also boosted the Indian unit, according to dealers. India's central bank considers recent weakness in the rupee as driven by speculative attacks, the report said. "The Reserve Bank of India is intervening in both onshore and offshore markets after what it saw as speculative attacks by international fund managers on the rupee, the report said citing a person familiar with the central bank's thinking.  

 

The Indian unit was also supported by a fall in the dollar index after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments left the door open to a rate cut at the Fed's policy meeting this month. Powell said the US labour market remained mired in its low-hiring, low-firing doldrums through September, though the economy "may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected." 

 

Fed funds futures traders now see a 95.7% probability of the US central bank lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.80, against 99.03 Tuesday and 99.25 Monday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.0750	88.2600	87.9100	88.3900	88.7975
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	196.27	199.13	199.13	195.95	199.45

 

FORWARDS

Dollar/rupee forward premiums ended lower across most tenures as the RBI likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avoid pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in November 2026, they said.

 

The central bank had actively sold dollars for forward delivery last week as well. Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.22%, against the previous close of 2.25%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 196.27 paise, against 199.45 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. However, a lot will depend on the RBI's scale of intervention after Wednesday's heavy action, they said.

 

"At this point it's tough to predict how rupee will move from here. But I think today's intervention has increased the appreciation bias for the rupee," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to India-US trade talks. They will also monitor developments related to US-China trade tensions. Dealers also expect importers to continue buying dollars, to make the most of the appreciation in the rupee, which would exert pressure on the local unit.

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 87.90 to 88.50 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 87.90 per dollar, they said.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index down on Fed rate cut bets; yen up 0.4%

 

	AT 1515 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3351	1.3374	1.3318	1.3313
EUR/USD	1.1634	1.1645	1.1602	1.1606
NZD/USD	0.5724	0.5732	0.5706	0.5711
AUD/USD	0.6516	0.6523	0.6486	0.6484
USD/JPY	151.3910	151.8680	150.9030	151.6710
USD/CAD	1.4042	1.4048	1.4028	1.4037
EUR/JPY	176.1280	176.2890	175.4420	176.1100
CHF/USD	1.2496	1.2516	1.2475	1.2473
EUR/CHF	0.9309	0.9312	0.9294	0.9287

 

MUMBAI - The dollar index declined after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments Tuesday boosted expectations of rate cuts in the US. Powell left the door open to cutting rates at the Fed's policy meeting this month, saying the US labour market remained mired in its low-hiring, low-firing doldrums through September, though the economy "may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected." 

 

Fed funds futures traders now see a 95.7% probability of the US central bank lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 1515 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.80, against 99.03 Tuesday and 99.25 Monday. Tracking a fall in the dollar index, the Japanese yen rose 0.4% against the greenback whereas euro rose 0.3%.

 

Meanwhile, tensions between the world's two largest economies heightened after US President Donald Trump said Washington was considering terminating some trade ties with China, including in relation to cooking oil. The US and China also began charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil. All of this comes after Trump Friday announced an additional 100% tariff on China after Beijing expanded export controls on rare earths last week. 

 

The pound sterling rose 0.3% against the dollar after data Wednesday showed grocery inflation rose to 5.2% in the four weeks to Oct 5, adding to pressure on consumers already facing higher energy bills. The grocery inflation rose 4.9% in September. The Swiss franc rose 0.3% against the greenback.

 

UK's Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said she was looking at both tax rises and spending cuts for her budget on Nov. 26, confirming widely held expectations given her pledges about balancing the country's books. Economic forecasters expect Reeves will need to raise about $40.1 billion through tax increases at the budget, after the government's borrowing costs jumped by more than expected, a plan to cut welfare costs was dropped and signals that growth forecasts will need to be lowered.

 

The Australian dollar rose 0.5% against the greenback after data Tuesday showed Australian business conditions remained steady in September as improvements in sales and profits were offset by a fall in employment. The survey showed its index of business conditions was unchanged at +8 last month. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.2% against the dollar.   (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Premiums fall as RBI likely sells long-tenure forward dollars

 

	AT 1425 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.3400	88.2600	87.9100	88.3900	88.7975
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	196.77	199.13	199.13	196.45	199.45

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar/rupee forward premiums fell across most tenures as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avoid pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in November 2026, they said.

 

"With the huge intervention we saw in spot today, it was inevitable there will be receiving in forwards," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. The central bank had actively sold dollars for forward delivery last week as well.

 

After persistently selling dollars to hold the rupee around 88.80 a dollar, the RBI Wednesday ramped up its intervention and heavily sold dollars in the currency market, pushing the Indian unit above the 88-per-dollar mark, dealers said. The rupee rose to a one-month high of 87.9100 Wednesday.

 

Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. The central bank likely sold around $3 billion in the currency market Wednesday, according to some dealers. 

 

At 1420 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.22%, against the previous close of 2.25%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 196.77 paise, against 199.45 paise Tuesday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Remains sharply up but pares gains as importers buy dollars

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.3100	88.2600	87.9100	88.3375	88.7975

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained sharply higher against the dollar but erased some of its early gains as banks bought dollars for importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, dealers said.

 

The rupee surged above the 88-per-dollar mark against the dollar early Wednesday as the Reserve Bank of India heavily sold dollars in both the offshore non-deliverable forwards and spot market, dealers said. The rupee rose to a near one-month high of 87.9100 a dollar after opening. The central bank likely sold around $3 billion in the currency market on Wednesday, according to some dealers. 

 

However, dollar purcahses by importers dragged it to the day's low of 88.3900. "After the morning havoc, market has been in a wait and watch mode," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Nobody expected such appreciation, so no one is sure how long this will sustain."

The Indian unit was also supported by a fall in the dollar index after Federal Reserve Jerome Powell's comments left the door open to a rate cut at the Fed's policy meeting this month. Powell said the US labour market remained mired in its low-hiring, low-firing doldrums through September, though the economy "may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected." 

 

Fed funds futures traders now see a 95.7% probability of the US central bank lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 1400 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.80, against 99.03 Tuesday and 99.25 Monday.

 

The Indian currency was also supported by a rise in domestic equities. At 1400 IST, both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were up 0.8%. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.90 and 88.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 87.80.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Oct 15

 

MUMBAI – At 1200 IST, the rupee was at 88.3225 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 88.2600 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.7975 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	88.90	88.80	87.70	87.50
Brokerage firm	88.60	88.55	88.10	87.50
Brokerage firm	88.85	88.80	87.80	87.50

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Surges as RBI heavily intervenes via dollar sales in spot, NDF market

 

	AT 0925 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	88.2650	88.2600	87.9100	88.3375	88.7975

 

MUMBAI – The rupee surged above the 88-per-dollar mark against the dollar Wednesday as the Reserve Bank of India heavily sold dollars in both the offshore non-deliverable forwards and spot market, dealers said. The rupee rose to a near one-month high of 87.9100 a dollar after opening. 

 

"This is the most unexpected move in rupee we have seen in a long time. There is just chaos in the market," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

The aggressive intervention by the RBI came after it had kept the Indian unit pinned around 88.80 a dollar for the last few weeks. dealers said. Following the sharply higher opening at 88.2600 a dollar, stop losses on long dollar bets were triggered at multiple dollar/rupee levels, which further helped the rupee, dealers said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.90 and 88.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 87.80.  (Rati Chaphekar and Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as dollar index slips; South Korean won up 0.2%

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar Wednesday as the dollar index declined after comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Tuesday boosted expectations of a rate cut in the US this month. Powell left the door open to cutting rates at the Fed's policy meeting this month, saying the US labour market remained mired in its low-hiring, low-firing doldrums through September, though the economy "may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected."  

 

Fed funds futures traders now see a 95.7% probability of the US central bank lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 0855 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.86, against 99.03 Tuesday and 99.25 Monday.

 

However, the gains in Asian units were limited as risk appetite took a beating after tensions between the world's two largest economies escalated with US President Donald Trump saying Washington was considering terminating some trade ties with China, including in relation to cooking oil. The US and China also began charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil. All this comes after Trump Friday announced an additional 100% tariff on China after Beijing expanded export controls on rare earths last week.

 

The Chinese yuan rose 0.2% against the dollar. Data released Wednesday showed the country's consumer price index fell 0.3% on year in September, compared to a 0.2?ll estimated in a Reuters poll. It had dropped 0.4% in August. The producer price index fell 2.3% on year in September compared to a 2.9?ll in August, in line with economists' expectations.

 

The South Korean won rose 0.2% against the greenback after South Korean Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol Tuesday said it was "huge progress" that the US was not insisting that South Korea make all the $350 billion investments, promised in a trade deal reached in July, in the form of direct investment. Additionally, the country's government early Wednesday said South Korea's industry minister and chief presidential secretary for policy would travel to the US on Thursday for follow-up talks on lowering tariffs applied to the Asian country's goods.

 

The Indonesian rupiah rose 0.2% against the greenback after Indonesia's Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa Tuesday said the rupiah was likely to strengthen in the fourth quarter, with capital inflows set to increase once foreign investors see economic growth is accelerating. Purbaya said economic growth could reach 5.67% on year in the fourth quarter, up from 5.12% in the second quarter, due to new government stimulus that would be announced soon. This is higher than the 5.5% outlook the minister gave last week.

 

The Thai baht rose 0.6% against the dollar, the most among its peers. Data released Tuesday showed Thailand's foreign tourist arrivals from Jan. 1 to Oct. 12 dropped 7.54% from the year-ago period. There were 25.1 million foreign visitors during the period. Malaysia was the largest source market with 3.61 million visitors, followed by China with 3.58 million.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Oct 15

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.90	88.55
State-owned bank	88.80	88.70
Private-sector bank	88.82	88.63
Private-sector bank	88.85	88.60
Foreign bank	88.85	88.60
Brokerage firm	88.82	88.58
Brokerage firm	88.90	88.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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