India Rupee Review
At 1-mo high on Trump's comments; importers' buys weigh
This story was originally published at 16:49 IST on 16 October 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025
By Rati Chaphekar
MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a one-month high against the dollar, extending its gaining streak from Wednesday, owing to increased hopes of a potential trade deal between New Delhi and Washington after US President Donald Trump's comment that India has assured it will not buy oil from Russia, dealers said. However, banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, which capped gains for the Indian unit, they said.
"The trade was very volatile at the opening, but the rupee settled at around 88.85 (a dollar) soon after," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "It was a good day for importers; a lot of dollar demand came in for profit booking."
The rupee rose to 87.6875 a dollar during the day, its highest intraday level since Aug. 29, and went on to settle at 87.8200 a dollar Thursday, against 88.0750 on Wednesday.
The rupee started the day above the 88-per-dollar mark against the dollar, for the first time in nearly a month, following Trump's comments late Wednesday. Trump said India couldn't stop oil purchases from Russia immediately, but would do so soon.
The Indian unit also got a boost as traders heavily unwound their long dollar bets after the Reserve Bank of India's aggressive intervention Wednesday to support the Indian currency, dealers said. The central bank unexpectedly ramped up its intervention through dollar sales in the currency market Wednesday, which led to the Indian unit logging its biggest intraday gain since November 2022. The central bank likely sold around $3.5 billion-$4.0 billion in the currency market Wednesday, according to dealers.
Further, the dollar index fell amid increasing trade war tensions and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, which supported the Indian unit. Fed funds futures traders now see a 95.7% probability of the US central bank lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.62, against 98.67 Wednesday and 99.03 Tuesday.
However, the Indian unit gave up some of its gains as importers rushed to buy dollars to take advantage of at the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels. Banks also bought dollars for oil marketing companies, they said. However, most traders remained cautious and refrained from placing large bets as they were uncertain about the outlook for the Indian currency after the RBI's aggressive intervention on Wednesday.
"In between the day, there were patches where both demand and supply were low," a dealer at state-owned banks said. "It looks like no one was sure of what was happening, so people were playing a cautious game."
Meanwhile, some banks sold dollars, likely for the RBI, around the day's low of 87.95 a dollar, which ensured the Indian unit stayed above the 88-per-dollar level, dealers said. "RBI has ensured the rupee stays in the 87 zone. The market would need just a positional nudge around these levels because there's a lot of uncertainty," a dealer at a foreign bank said.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 87.8200 | 87.8125 | 87.9500 | 87.6875 | 88.0750 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 196.33 | 194.13 | 197.17 | 194.13 | 196.27 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium ended higher as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the sharp appreciation in the rupee, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's forward dollar sales for long-tenure delivery limited gains for the premium, they said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in February 2027 and March 2027, they said.
The central bank unexpectedly ramped up its intervention through dollar sales in the currency market Wednesday, which led to the Indian unit logging its biggest intraday gain since November 2022. Some dealers speculated the central bank intervened through dollar sales around 87.95 on Thursday as well.
Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.24%, against the previous close of 2.22%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 196.33 paise, against 196.27 paise Wednesday.
OUTLOOK
On Friday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. However, traders will watch out for the RBI's intervention after Wednesday's heavy action, they said. "RBI has given a clear signal, it seems," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The rupee will hold 88.00 a level next week too, people will take short (dollar) positions and stop losses might get triggered at 88.15 (a dollar)."
Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to India-US trade talks. They will also monitor developments related to US-China trade tensions. Dealers also expect importers to continue buying dollars to make the most of the appreciation in the rupee, which would exert pressure on the local unit. "Honestly, the big picture for the rupee still looks a bit hazy to me. The buying pressure may come in at all times. This appreciation can be temporary unless flows are in our favour," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.
The rupee is expected to move in a range of 87.50 to 88.00 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 87.60 per dollar, they said.
India Rupee - World FX: Pound sterling up post GDP data; Australian dlr down
|
AT 1520 IST |
HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3433 | 1.3442 | 1.3396 | 1.3394 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1658 | 1.1676 | 1.1643 | 1.1643 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5743 | 0.5755 | 0.5712 | 0.5715 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6511 | 0.6516 | 0.6480 | 0.6509 |
| USD/JPY | 151.1260 | 151.3790 | 150.5150 | 151.0320 |
| USD/CAD | 1.4033 | 1.4048 | 1.4023 | 1.4038 |
| EUR/JPY | 176.1800 | 176.3750 | 175.5100 | 175.9300 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2553 | 1.2605 | 1.2538 | 1.2532 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9286 | 0.9292 | 0.9262 | 0.9269 |
MUMBAI – The pound sterling rose 0.3% against the greenback after data released Thursday showed the UK economy returned to growth in August. The UK's GDP grew 0.1% on month in August while July's print was revised to a 0.1?ll from June from the previous reading of being unchanged.
The Australian dollar fell 0.1% against the dollar after data Thursday showed Australia's unemployment rate spiked unexpectedly to a near four-year high in September. The net employment rose 14,900 in September from August, when it fell a revised 11,800. That was under market forecasts for a 20,000 gain. The economic data boosted expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in November.
Earlier in the day, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said a pickup in consumer spending and higher readings on some parts of inflation had given policymakers a pause to consider whether further interest rate cuts were needed.
The Japanese yen traded steady against the greenback. Bank of Japan's board member Naoki Tamura Thursday said the central bank should lift interest rates closer to levels deemed neutral to the economy given mounting inflationary pressures. The country's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato Wednesday said to its G7 counterparts that policymakers must be vigilant against excessively volatile and disorderly moves in the currency market.
The dollar index fell further Thursday amid escalating US-China trade tensions and growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this month, which may also aid the Indian unit, dealers said. Senior US officials Wednesday blasted China's expansion of rare earth export controls as a threat to global supply chains, but said Beijing could still change course and avoid steps by Washington to decouple from the world's second-largest economy.
At 1520 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.60, against 98.61 Wednesday and 99.03 Tuesday. The euro rose 0.1%.
The New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% against the dollar even after data Thursday showed New Zealand food prices fell 0.4% in September, while the index rose 4.1% from the same month last year. Food prices make up nearly 19% of the CPI. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Premium steady as RBI fwd dlr sales offset importers' fwd buys
| AT 1335 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 87.8600 | 87.8125 | 87.6875 | 87.9500 | 88.0750 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 195.83 | 194.13 | 197.17 | 194.13 | 196.27 |
NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium was broadly steady as the impact of importers' forward dollar purchases was offset by the Reserve Bank of India's forward dollar sales for long-tenure delivery, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in February 2027 and March 2027, they said.
"The RBI seems to be targeting the long tenure bucket now for its recieving operations," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "This shall continue for some more time and keep the levels in check."
The central bank unexpectedly ramped up its intervention through dollar sales in the currency market Wednesday, which led to the Indian unit logging its biggest intraday gain since November 2022. The central bank likely sold around $3.5 billion-$4.0 billion in the currency market Wednesday, according to dealers. Some dealers speculated the central bank intervened through dollar sales around 87.95 on Thursday as well.
Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
Meanwhile, some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the sharp appreciation in the rupee, dealers said. On Thursday, the Indian currency touched a high of 87.6875 a dollar, its highest intraday level since Aug. 29.
At 1335 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.23%, against the previous close of 2.22%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 195.83 paise, against 196.27 paise Wednesday. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Up but pares gains as banks buy dollars for importers, oil cos
| AT 1325 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 87.8975 | 87.8125 | 87.6875 | 87.9500 | 88.0750 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was sharply higher against the dollar but pared a lot of its early gains as banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies and importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The rupee opened above the 88-per-dollar mark against the dollar Thursday, for the first time in nearly a month.
The rupee surged after US President Donald Trump's comment that India has assured it will not buy oil from Russia, boosted hope of a potential trade deal between New Delhi and Washington, dealers said. "People are optimistic that a trade deal will happen soon after Trump's comments," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The current levels are very profitable for importers, especially as the rupee hovered around 88.80 (a dollar) for the past two-three weeks."
However, traders remained cautious and refrained from placing large bets as they were uncertain about the outlook of the Indian currency after the RBI's aggressive intervention on Wednesday. The central bank unexpectedly ramped up its intervention through dollar sales in the currency market Wednesday, which led to the Indian unit logging its biggest intraday gain since November 2022. The central bank likely sold around $3.5 billion-$4.0 billion in the currency market Wednesday, according to dealers.
The dollar index fell amid increasing trade war tensions and expectations of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at its October meeting, which supported the Indian unit. Fed funds futures traders now see a 95.7% probability of the US central bank lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 1325 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.60, against 98.67 Wednesday and 99.03 Tuesday.
Some dealers speculated the central bank intervened through dollar sales around 87.95 on Thursday.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.50 and 88.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 87.60. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Oct 16
MUMBAI – At 1105 IST, the rupee was at 87.8725 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 87.8125 a dollar, against the previous close of 88.0750 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | 88.00 | 87.90 | 87.75 | 87.60 |
| Private-sector bank | 88.90 | 88.80 | 87.50 | 87.30 |
| Brokerage firm | 88.00 | 87.80 | 88.50 | 87.20 |
(Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Rises above 88/$1 on Trump's comments, cutting of long dlr bets
| AT 0945 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 87.7650 | 87.8125 | 87.6875 | 87.8700 | 88.0750 |
MUMBAI – The rupee surged above the 88-a-dollar mark Thursday after US President Donald Trump's comment that India has assured it will not buy oil from Russia, boosted hope of a potential trade deal between New Delhi and Washington, dealers said. Trump said India couldn't stop oil purchases from Russia immediately, but would do so soon.
"Trump's statement has given a further push to rupee. It has led to more selling (of dollars)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "Most of the long (dollar) positions were cut after the onshore market closed yesterday (Wednesday)."
Traders heavily unwound their long dollar bets after the Reserve Bank of India's aggressive intervention to support the Indian currency Wednesday, which also aided the Indian unit, dealers said. The central bank unexpectedly ramped up its intervention through dollar sales in the currency market Wednesday, which led to the Indian unit logging its biggest intraday gain since November 2022. The central bank likely sold around $3.5 billion-$4.0 billion in the currency market Wednesday, according to dealers.
The dollar index fell amid increasing trade war tensions and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its October meeting, which supported the Indian unit. Fed funds futures traders now see a 95.7% probability of the US central bank lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 0945 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.51, against 98.67 Wednesday and 99.03 Tuesday.
Meanwhile, some banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, looking to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, which limited gains for the Indian unit, dealers said. The Indian currency touched a high of 87.6875 a dollar after opening, its highest intraday level since Aug. 29.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.50 and 88.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 87.60. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee - Asia FX:Mixed amid US-China trade tensions; South Korea won up
MUMBAI - Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar Thursday as market participants focused on developments related to the escalating trade tensions between the US and China. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blasted China's major expansion of rare earth export controls as a threat to global supply chains, but said Beijing could still change course and avoid steps by Washington to decouple from the world's second-largest economy. The Chinese yuan traded steady against the greenback while the Taiwan dollar fell 0.2%.
The dollar index fell amid increasing trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and expectations of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in its October meeting, which supported the Asian units. Fed funds futures traders now see a 95.7% probability of the US central bank lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 0930 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.51, against 98.67 Wednesday and 99.03 Tuesday.
The South Korean won rose 0.2% against the greenback after South Korea's top policy adviser Wednesday said that South Korea and the US made "meaningful progress" in negotiations over $350 billion of investments in the US that Seoul pledged in a deal reached in July to secure reduced US trade tariffs. Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Wednesday said that the US is close to finalising a trade deal with South Korea and he expects an announcement in the next 10 days.
The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.2% against the dollar after Malaysian state media Wednesday said, citing the trade minister, that the country will hold talks with the US secretary of commerce on sectoral tariffs, including on semiconductors, during a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations next week. US President Donald Trump's administration in August imposed a tariff of 19% on Malaysian exports to the US, though items like semiconductors are currently exempt pending a US national security probe.
The Thai baht rose 0.4% against the greenback even after Thailand's deputy central bank governor said the fresh flare-up in trade tensions between the US and China is a big risk to the outlook for Thailand's economic growth. The central bank expects to see growth at 2.2% this year and 1.8% in 2026 – well below the potential growth rate of 2.7%. The Philippine peso fell 0.1% against the dollar. (Rati Chaphekar)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Oct 16
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 88.20 | 87.30 |
| State-owned bank | 88.00 | 87.50 |
| Private-sector bank | 88.40 | 87.75 |
| Private-sector bank | 87.95 | 87.50 |
| Foreign bank | 88.10 | 87.40 |
| Brokerage firm | 87.90 | 87.65 |
| Brokerage firm | 87.95 | 87.34 |
| Brokerage firm | 88.00 | 87.30 |
| Brokerage firm | 87.80 | 87.50 |
(Rati Chaphekar)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Saji George Titus
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