More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended slightly higher against the dollar Thursday as the Reserve Bank of India likely intervened through dollar sales, dealers said. Growing expectations of a trade deal between the US and India in the near term, also supported the Indian unit, they said. 

 

"Some selling (of dollars) by the RBI was seen around 88.00 (a dollar) as expected," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Volumes are quite dull in the market, people are hesitating to take any position due to continuous intervention by the central bank."

 

After trading in a range of 13 paise during the day, the domestic currency ended the day at 87.8400 a dollar, up from 87.9275 a dollar Monday. 

 

The rupee started the day higher against the dollar due to positive sentiment in the market after US President Donald Trump's comments revived hopes of a trade deal between Washington and New Delhi in the near term. In a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi Tuesday, Trump's remarks suggested that New Delhi would curb its procurement of Russian energy rather than completely halting it. Trump said India would not buy "much oil from Russia." Additionally, financial newspaper The Mint reported, citing sources, that India and the US were closing in on a long-pending trade deal that could slash tariffs on Indian exports to 15–16% from 50%.  

 

These gains, however, were short-lived, as banks rushed in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels. Banks also bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies, who wanted to meet their month-end payment requirements. 

 

The rupee was also weighed by a rise in the dollar index ahead of the release of the key US inflation data on Friday. The data has already been delayed for a week because of the ongoing US government shutdown which has now entered its fourth week. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.05, up from 98.88 Wednesday and 98.95 Tuesday.

 

Meanwhile, volume in the currency market remained dull due to lack of enough traders in the dealing rooms due to the festive season. The currency market was shut Tuesday and Wednesday due to Diwali.

 

Continuing the recent trend, the central bank likely intervened in the market through dollar sales at around 87.95 a dollar, which prevented the Indian unit from testing the 88-per-dollar mark, dealers said. While the intervention was not aggressive in nature, it helped the Indian unit notch some gains as volume in the currency market was low, dealers said. "88 is the new line in sand it seems," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Even on days when there is not much pressure on the rupee, we are seeing RBI's support."

 

Some foreign banks also sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors looking to invest in the Indian equities, which provided some support to the rupee, dealers said. On Thursday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.1% and 0.2% higher, respectively.  

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	87.8400	87.8325	87.8300	87.9575	87.9275
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	202.28	200.30	203.00	200.30	200.73

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium ended at a near three-week high as US Treasury yields fell for the third consecutive session Wednesday on demand for safe-haven assets amid a government shutdown and renewed trade tensions between the US and China, dealers said. 

 

Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries. In a fresh retaliation against Beijing's latest round of rare earth export restrictions, Trump's administration is considering a plan to stop a slew of software-powered exports to China, from laptops to jet engines, Reuters reported, citing sources Thursday. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 3.97% Wednesday from 3.98% Tuesday.  

 

Market participants now await the US inflation print for September Friday, which is more than a week late due to the shutdown. The economic data may give some cues about the US Federal Reserve's future rate actions. 

 

Meanwhile, volume in the market was lower than usual due to less number of traders in the dealing rooms on account of the festive season. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.30%, against the previous close of 2.27%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 202.28 paise, against 200.73 paise Monday.  

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee will take cues from the movement of the dollar index ahead of key US inflation data, dealers said. The local unit may also track movement of other Asian currencies, they said. Traders expect the RBI to continue intervening through dollar sales to prevent the Indian unit from falling below 88-per-dollar, they said.

 

Market participants will continue to closely monitor developments related to India-US trade talks. "It all depends on the trade deal now. Some days there is positive news, while some days there is negative," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Unless there is any clarity on the India-US trade-deal front, we cannot hedge anything."

 

Dealers also expect importers to continue buying dollars, to make the most of the recent appreciation in the rupee, which would exert pressure on the local unit.

 

The rupee is expected to move in a range of 87.50 to 88.00 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 87.60 per dollar, they said.

---

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index rises ahead of US CPI data; Yen falls 0.3%

 

	AT 1445 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3349	1.3360	1.3330	1.3353
EUR/USD	1.1594	1.1615	1.1591	1.1611
NZD/USD	0.5747	0.5751	0.5725	0.5739
AUD/USD	0.6510	0.6512	0.6479	0.6490
USD/JPY	152.6120	152.6650	151.8280	151.8610
USD/CAD	1.3994	1.4005	1.3987	1.3990
EUR/JPY	176.9390	177.0250	176.2900	176.3450
CHF/USD	1.2535	1.2568	1.2527	1.2561
EUR/CHF	0.9249	0.9256	0.9240	0.9230

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose ahead of the release of the key US inflation data on Friday, dealers said. The data has already been delayed for a week because of the ongoing US government shutdown which has now entered its fourth week. 

 

Market participants await key economic data for more cues on the US Federal Reserve's future rate actions. At 1445 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.04, up from 98.88 Wednesday and 98.95 Tuesday. The euro fell 0.1% against the greenback.

 

The Japanese yen continued its downtrend, falling 0.3% against the greenback, as Sanae Takaichi, widely viewed as a fiscal and monetary dove, was elected Japan's first female prime minister on Tuesday. Investors await details related to a stimulus package by Takaichi. Reuters reported citing sources Wednesday that Takaichi was preparing an economic stimulus package that is likely to exceed last year's $92 billion to help households tackle inflation. 

 

The Australian dollar rose 0.3% against the dollar. US President Donald Trump's administration is considering a plan to stop a dizzying array of software-powered exports to China, from laptops to jet engines, to retaliate against Beijing's latest round of rare earth export restrictions, Reuters reported, citing sources Thursday. Any major development in China affects Australia because of their strong bilateral trade ties. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.1% against the greenback. 

 

The pound sterling recovered its losses from Wednesday and traded steady against the dollar. The currency had fallen 0.4% against the dollar Wednesday after the annual rate of the UK's consumer price inflation unexpectedly held steady in September, undershooting forecasts for a rise. The consumer price index remained at 3.8% for the third month running, below expectations by a Reuters poll and the Bank of England itself, which had projected a rise to 4%.

 

The Swiss franc fell 0.2% against the dollar after Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel Wednesday said that the country's inflation was likely to rise slightly in the coming quarters with economic indicators pointing to stable situation with moderate growth. However, according to minutes published Thursday, the Swiss National Bank saw no need of cutting rates and going into a negative territory further after it kept interest rate at 0% last month.  (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: 1-year forward premium hits over 2-week high as US yields fall

 

	AT 1340 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	87.8800	87.8325	87.8300	87.9575	87.9275
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	202.53	200.30	203.00	200.30	200.73

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium rose to an over two-week high as US Treasury yields fell for the third consecutive session Wednesday on demand for safe-haven assets amid a government shutdown and renewed trade tensions between the US and China, dealers said. "US yields have been falling, so some paying is coming from that. Otherwise, there is not much activity in the market," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries. In a fresh retaliation against Beijing's latest round of rare earth export restrictions, US President Donald Trump's administration is considering a plan to stop a slew of software-powered exports to China, from laptops to jet engines, Reuters reported, citing sources Thursday. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 3.97% Wednesday from 3.98% Tuesday.  

 

The US government shutdown has now moved into its 23rd day, marking the second-longest in US history. Market participants now await the US inflation print for September Friday, which is more than a week late due to the shutdown. The economic data may give some cues about the US Federal Reserve's future rate actions. 

 

Meanwhile, volume in the market was lower than usual due to lack of enough traders in the dealing rooms on account of the festive season. The currency market was shut Tuesday and Wednesday due to Diwali.

 

At 1340 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.31%, against the previous close of 2.27%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 202.53 paise, against 200.73 paise Monday.  (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Erases all gains as importers buy dollars; volume remains dull

 

	AT 1310 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	87.9300	87.8325	87.8200	87.9575	87.9275

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased all its early gains against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. Banks also bought dollars for oil marketing companies, who wanted to meet their demand for month-end payment requirements, they said.

 

Additionally, volumes in the currency markets remained dull due to lack of enough traders in the dealing rooms due to the festive season. "The continuous RBI intervention has also dried up volumes in the market," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "People are cautious about taking any positions as no one knows how long this intervention will continue."

 

After a heavy intervention last week, which led to the rupee moving above the 88-per-dollar mark, the Reserve Bank of India has been actively selling dollars, likely to prevent the Indian unit from falling beyond 88 a dollar. Some dealers speculated the central bank may have intervened through dollar sales in the spot market Thursday as well. 

 

The Indian unit opened higher against the dollar Thursday owing to growing expectations of a trade deal between the US and India, dealers said. After a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi Tuesday, Trump's remarks suggested that New Delhi would curb its procurement of Russian energy rather than completely halting it. Trump said India would not buy "much oil from Russia." Additionally, financial newspaper Mint reported, citing sources, that India and the US were closing in on a long-pending trade deal that could slash tariffs on Indian exports to 15–16% from 50%. 

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose ahead of the release of US inflation data on Friday, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. The data has already been delayed for a week because of the ongoing US government shutdown which has now entered its fourth week. At 1310 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.03, up from 98.88 Wednesday and 98.95 Tuesday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.60 and 88.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 88.00 a dollar. (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Oct 23

 

MUMBAI – At 1105 IST, the rupee was at 87.9125 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 87.8325 a dollar, against the previous close of 87.9275 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	88.15	88.10	87.85	87.80
Private-sector bank	88.40	88.30	87.50	87.00
Brokerage firm	88.25	88.00	87.50	87.20

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Pares gains as importers buy dollars; Trump's comments support

 

	AT 0945 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	87.8825	87.8325	87.8300	87.8925	87.9275

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased some of its early gains as banks bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies, who wanted to meet their month-end payment requirements, dealers said. Some importers also bought the greenback, noting the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, they said. 

 

"Looks like buying pressure (of dollars) will be there from oil importers throughout the day, a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "There is still a lot of uncertainty around the (US-India) trade deal, but the market looks optimistic."

 

The rupee opened higher against the dollar Thursday as US President Donald Trump's comments boosted hopes of a trade deal between the US and India soon, dealers said. "Reports say that there have been some good talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. "Also, November is approaching, everyone hopes a trade deal by then, that has also supported the sentiment."

In a phone call with Modi Tuesday, Trump's remarks suggested that New Delhi would curb its procurement of Russian energy rather than completely halting it. Trump said India would not buy "much oil from Russia." 

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose ahead of the release of US inflation data on Friday, weighing on the Indian unit, dealers said. The data has already been delayed for a week because of the ongoing US government shutdown which has now entered its fourth week. At 0945 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.04, up from 98.88 Wednesday and 98.95 Tuesday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.60 and 88.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 87.60. (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as dlr index rises; S Korean won down 0.3%

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell Thursday as the dollar index rose ahead of the release of US inflation data on Friday. The data has already been delayed for a week because of the ongoing US government shutdown, which has now entered its fourth week. 

 

The dollar index also rose due to weakness in the Japanese yen and the ongoing tariff war between China and the US. The yen weakened as market participants awaited a big stimulus package from new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, widely seen as favouring fiscal and monetary easing. At 0920 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.05, up from 98.88 Wednesday and 98.95 Tuesday.

 

US President Donald Trump's administration is considering a plan to stop a dizzying array of software-powered exports to China, from laptops to jet engines, to retaliate against Beijing's latest round of rare earth export restrictions, Reuters reported, citing sources Thursday. The Chinese yuan traded steady against the greenback, whereas the Taiwan dollar fell 0.1%.

 

The South Korean won fell 0.3% against the dollar. The Bank of Korea kept policy interest rates unchanged at 2.50% Thursday as a resurgence in home prices and a declining currency against the dollar reduced the scope for further easing, in line with market expectations. The median expectation is now for another cut in November and then a prolonged pause, as analysts expect policymakers to put more emphasis on managing risks related to financial stability amid an overheating housing market and uncertainty over a US trade deal.

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.3% against the greenback. Bank Indonesia unexpectedly kept key interest rates unchanged at 4.75% Wednesday, pausing after three successive cuts, as policymakers assess the impact of previous reductions. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a cut of 25 basis points. The Indonesian central bank's decision to hold rates steady was consistent with the bank's efforts to maintain rupiah stability while also working to improve monetary policy transmission, the central bank said in a statement. 

 

The Philippine peso also fell 0.3% against the greenback and the Thai baht was down 0.1?ter Bank of Thailand's officials Wednesday said the country's central bank would maintain its accommodative monetary stance to support the economy and remain ready to adjust policy settings as needed amid expectations that GDP fell in the third quarter. Bucking the trend, the Malaysian ringgit traded steady against the dollar.  (Rati Chaphekar)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Oct 23

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	88.00	87.60
State-owned bank	88.00	87.60
Private-sector bank	87.90	87.70
Foreign bank	88.20	87.60
Brokerage firm	88.00	87.62
Brokerage firm	88.00	87.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.