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Informist, Friday, Oct. 24, 2025

 

By Rati Chaphekar

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased all its gains and ended steady against the dollar Friday as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. The Indian unit was earlier supported by foreign fund inflows and optimism around the India-US trade deal negotiations, they said.

 

"Inflows were the main driver for the rupee today, but then there is a lot of demand (for dollars) in the market too," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "If inflows continue at this pace, 87.50 will break in the next few days."

 

After touching a high of 87.6250 a dollar, the domestic currency ended the day at 87.8450 a dollar, broadly unchanged from its previous close of 87.8400. The Indian unit traded in a range of 23 paise during the day.

 

The rupee started the day higher against the dollar owing to risk-on sentiment among investors amid growing hope of a trade deal between India and the US. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal Thursday said discussions between India and the US regarding the proposed trade deal were "moving forward". He expressed optimism about the deal, saying that both countries would strive to reach a fair and balanced agreement soon and added that he hoped for the trade deal with the US to materialise in the "near future", according to media reports. 

 

The US had slapped an additional 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods, on top of a 25% reciprocal tariff, citing New Delhi's continued purchases of Russian crude oil. 

 

The uptick in the Indian unit was also supported as some foreign banks sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors, looking to invest in Indian markets. Some foreign fund inflows were likely into an Indian corporate, they said. After seeing net outflows for the last three months, FPI inflows have made a come back this month. So far in October, FPIs have net infused $3.16 billion into Indian markets. 

 

The rupee was also anchored by expectations that the Reserve Bank of India will continue to protect the 88-per-dollar mark through dollar sales, as has been the case in the recent days. The continuous dollar sales by the central bank has led to traders being hesitant about taking large positions, drying up volumes in the currency market. "The market is in a wait and watch mode," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Every day we see selling (of dollars) by nationalised banks in more or less quantity. It becomes difficult to build any position in such a situation when chances of profit-making are slim."   

 

However, the domestic currency gave up gains as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers and oil marketing companies, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels. The Indian currency was also weighed by a rise in the dollar index ahead of key US inflation data, which has already been delayed for a week amid the government shutdown. The data is unlikely to deter the US Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates next week, but may influence its policy decision in December. 

 

A poll by The Wall Street Journal forecast the US inflation print to come at 3.1% on year, up from 2.9% in August. Core inflation is expected to remain at 3.1%. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.00, up from 98.92 Thursday and 98.88 Wednesday. 

 

During the last few hours of trade, the Indian unit was also weighed by fading expectations of a near-term breathrough in India-US trade deal talks after Goyal Friday said that India will not sign an imbalanced trade deal with the US only to avoid tariffs in the short term, as trade deals have long-term consequences. "We don't do deals in a hurry," Goyal said.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	87.8450	87.7850	87.6250	87.8525	87.8400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	201.37	202.37	203.80	201.15	202.28

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium ended largely steady Friday as traders exercised caution ahead of the release of the key US inflation data, later in the day, dealers said.

 

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year US yield moving back above the 4% level, ahead of the inflation data, which weighed on the forward premiums, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.01% Thursday from 3.97% Wednesday. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.29%, against the previous close of 2.30%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 201.37 paise, against 202.28 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index after the release of the key US inflation data, dealers said. The local unit may also track movement of other Asian currencies, they said.

 

Traders will also closely watch out for any development on the India-US trade deal. Media reports post market hours said, citing sources, that India and the US are close to reaching a trade deal, and the engagements are going well. 

 

"The rupee looks in a comfortable position right now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Even if the trade deal happens, I don't think rupee will appreciate more than 87.50 a dollar as too much apreciation will not help exporters."

 

Market participants expect the RBI to continue intervening through dollar sales to prevent the Indian unit from falling below 88-per-dollar, they said. "The RBI had intervened heavily last week. The protection of 88 is sort of a follow up support for rupee," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "This should continue for a while."

 

Dealers also expect importers to continue buying dollars, to make the most of the recent appreciation in the rupee, which would exert pressure on the local unit. The rupee is expected to move in a range of 87.50 to 88.00 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 87.60 per dollar, they said.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index up ahead of US CPI data; yen falls 0.2%

 

	AT 1440 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3316	1.3334	1.3301	1.3324
EUR/USD	1.1609	1.1629	1.1601	1.1614
NZD/USD	0.5742	0.5758	0.5741	0.5749
AUD/USD	0.6494	0.6517	0.6493	0.6510
USD/JPY	152.9370	153.0620	152.4820	152.5270
USD/CAD	1.4022	1.4029	1.3975	1.3989
EUR/JPY	177.5410	177.7050	177.2090	177.1620
CHF/USD	1.2563	1.2585	1.2552	1.2568
EUR/CHF	0.9238	0.9248	0.9230	0.9236

 

India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index up ahead of US CPI data; yen falls 0.2%

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose slightly ahead of key US inflation data later in the day. The inflation print has already been delayed for a week due to the government shutdown. The data is unlikely to deter the US Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates next week, but may influence its policy decision in December.

 

A poll by The Wall Street Journal sees US inflation for September at 3.1% on year, up from 2.9% in August. Core inflation is expected to remain at 3.1%. At 1440 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.03, up from 98.92 Thursday and 98.88 Wednesday.

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.2% against the greenback even after data Friday showed Japan's core consumer prices rose 2.9% on year in September, staying above the central bank's 2.0% target and keeping alive expectations of a near-term interest rate hike. The data will be among the factors the Bank of Japan will scrutinise at its two-day meeting next week, when the board will debate whether to keep interest rates steady at 0.5% and issue fresh quarterly growth and price forecasts.

 

The pound sterling was steady against the greenback. Bank of England policymaker Swati Dhingra Thursday said higher US tariffs on imports are weighing on growth in the UK and are likely to lead to downward pressure on inflation over the medium term. Dhingra also said that excessively high interest rates could cause longer-term inflation problems by limiting investment in new production capacities and improvements in productivity. The Swiss franc was also steady against the dollar.

 

The euro fell 0.1% against the greenback even after data Friday showed Euro zone business activity unexpectedly grew at a faster pace in October. The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite purchasing managers' index rose to 52.2 in October from 51.2 in September, marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion and reaching a 17-month high and against expectations of a dip to 51.0 by a Reuters poll.

 

Moreover, Germany's private sector recorded its strongest growth in nearly two-and-a-half years in October, buoyed by a robust rise in services activity. The HCOB preliminary German flash composite PMI rose to 53.8 in October from 52.0 in September, marking the fastest growth since May 2023 and surpassing analysts' expectations of 51.5.

 

Tracking the rise in the dollar index, Australian dollar fell 0.1% against the greenback while the New Zealand dollar was steady.  (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Forward premium steady on caution ahead of US inflation data

 

	AT 1350 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	87.7850	87.7850	87.6300	87.8425	87.8400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	201.37	202.37	203.80	201.15	202.28

 

India Rupee: Forward premium steady on caution ahead of US inflation data

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium was largely steady Friday as traders exercised caution ahead of the release of the key US inflation data, later in the day, dealers said. "The rate cut (in the US) this month is certain, but the picture on the future rate cuts is still a bit hazy," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "If rate cut expectations change drastically, forward premiums will be skewed."

 

The US CPI likely rose 0.4% last month after advancing by the same margin in August, a Reuters poll said. The CPI is estimated to have increased 3.1% on year after advancing 2.9% in August. The inflation data is more than a week late due to the US government shutdown. While the print may not hinder the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates next week by 25 basis points, it could provide cues on what the central bank might do in its December meeting.

 

US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year US yield moving back above the 4% level, ahead of the inflation data, which weighed on the forward premiums, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.01% Thursday from 3.97% Wednesday. Forwards of a currency pair are reflective of the interest rate differential between the two countries.

 

At 1350 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.29%, against the previous close of 2.30%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 201.37 paise, against 202.28 paise Thursday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Pares gains as importers buy dollars; foreign inflows support

 

	AT 1310 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	87.7300	87.7850	87.6300	87.8425	87.8400

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased some of its early gains against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. The Indian unit rose to a near two-month high earlier in the day owing to foreign fund inflows and optimism related to an India-US trade deal, they said. 

 

Banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar/rupee rupee levels, dealers said. "We are seeing good bids (dollar buying) around 87.65-87.70," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Importers are obviously booking these levels." 

 

The Indian unit rose sharply as foreign banks sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors looking to invest in Indian markets, dealers said. Some foreign fund inflows were likely into an Indian corporate, they said.     

 

Further, hope of a trade deal between India and the US coming through increased after Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal Thursday said discussions regarding the proposed trade deal were "moving forward". He expressed optimism about the deal, saying that both countries would strive to reach a fair and balanced agreement soon and hoped that the trade deal with the US would materialise in the "near future", according to media reports. 

 

Market participants now await key US inflation data later in the day. The data has already been delayed for a week amid the US government shutdown and is unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates next week, but may influence its policy decision in December. At 1310 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.02, up from 98.92 Thursday and 98.88 Wednesday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.50 and 88.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 87.60. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Oct 24

 

MUMBAI – At 1135 IST, the rupee was at 87.7050 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 87.7850 a dollar, against the previous close of 87.8400 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	88.20	88.00	87.50	87.20
Private-sector bank	88.40	88.30	87.50	87.00
Brokerage firm	88.25	88.00	87.50	87.20

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Sharply up on hope of India-US trade deal, likely FX inflows

 

	AT 0955 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	87.6375	87.7850	87.6300	87.8425	87.8400

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar Friday owing to positive risk sentiment among investors amid growing hope of a trade deal between India and the US, dealers said. "Yesterday's (Thursday) sentiment is continuing in the market today (Friday)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "(Piyush) Goyal's comments on trade deal have also added to the optimism."

 

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal Thursday said discussions between India and the US regarding the proposed trade deal were "moving forward". He expressed optimism about the deal, saying that both countries would strive to reach a fair and balanced agreement soon and added that he hoped for the trade deal with the US to materialise in the "near future", according to media reports. 

 

Some foreign banks sold dollars, likely for foreign fund inflows into Indian markets, which also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. However, banks stepped in to buy dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, noting the relatively lower dollar/rupee levels, which limited gains for the Indian currency, dealers said.

 

The dollar index rose ahead of key US inflation data, which has already been delayed for a week amid the government shutdown, exerting some downward pressure on the rupee, dealers said. The data is unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates next week, but may influence its policy decision in December. At 0955 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.00, up from 98.92 Thursday and 98.88 Wednesday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 87.50 and 88.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 87.60. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed ahead of US inflation data Fri; yuan steady

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar Friday ahead of the release of key US inflation data later in the day, which has already been delayed for a week due to the US government shutdown. The data is unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates next week, but might influence the Fed's policy decision in December.

 

The dollar index rose in early trade. At 0855 IST, the index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.04, up from 98.92 Thursday and 98.88 Wednesday. The Philippine peso, the Indonesian rupiah, and the Malaysian ringgit traded steady against the dollar.

 

The Chinese yuan also traded steady against the greenback ahead of US President Donald Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week as part of a trip to Asia for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Summit. Before that, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is set to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer from Friday, as the world's two largest economies try to ease an unexpected flare-up in trade tensions ahead of a key leaders' summit.

 

The Taiwan dollar fell 0.1% against the greenback even after Economic Affairs Minister Kung Ming-hsin Thursday said Taiwan's economy could grow more than 3% next year as the demand for artificial intelligence applications continues at a rapid clip, offering a rosier outlook than previous forecasts. The Thai baht fell 0.1% against the greenback.

 

The South Korean won rose 0.2% against the dollar after the country's central bank said Thursday that the economy is estimated to have grown around 1% in the third quarter on the back of reviving consumption and strong exports. Official data on the third-quarter GDP is expected to be released next week. (Rati Chaphekar)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Oct 24

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	87.95	87.55
Private-sector bank	87.95	87.75
Private-sector bank	87.95	87.65
Brokerage firm	88.00	87.60
Brokerage firm	87.95	87.65
Brokerage firm	87.92	87.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Rati Chaphekar)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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