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Informist, Monday, Jun. 15, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at an over-five-week high against the dollar as crude oil prices dropped sharply after the US and Iran reached an agreement that could end the war in West Asia and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. However, the rupee retreated considerably from the day's high as banks bought dollars for importers, they said.

 

"The rupee had risen around 60 paise in early trade, almost two months' premium. It's a good level, why wouldn't importers buy (dollars)?" a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "With more clarity on the details of the US-Iran deal, importers will bid agressively."

 

After rising to 94.4525 a dollar in early trade, the rupee went on to settle at 94.7100 a dollar, up 0.4% from Friday's close. The Indian currency moved in a range of 32 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies rose 0.2-1.2% against the dollar Monday, with the Indonesian rupiah being the best performer.

 

The rupee opened on a strong note Monday as Brent crude oil price hit its lowest level in over three months after the warring nations agreed to suspend hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon. US President Donald Trump Monday said he had authorised "the immediate removal of the US naval blockade" on Iranian ports. "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" he said in a social media post. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil price for August delivery was $83.06 a barrel, down from $87.33 Friday and $90.38 Thursday. 

 

Traders trimmed their long dollar positions, expecting the rupee to appreciate further amid positive sentiment in the market following the peace deal, dealers said. Dealers expect the rupee to rise to 94.10 a dollar by the end of the week once the US and Iran sign the peace deal Friday.

 

A sharp rise in domestic equities also supported the local unit, dealers said. Monday, the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex each ended 1% higher. A fall in the dollar index as safe-haven demand faded also boosted the local unit, dealers said.

 

Recently, the Indian currency has also found support from a slew of measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India to attract dollar inflows. Of the many measures, the RBI's swap facility for banks to raise fresh foreign currency non-resident deposits is expected to draw around $43 billion in inflows, according to an Informist Poll. Dealers said the rupee could appreciate to 92.00 by September if anticipated foreign inflows arrive and the war in West Asia ends.

 

"However, we are yet to see if banks will give leverage on loans. In 2013, many banks had given leverage, which attracted inflows of nearly $34 billion. Also, inflows are mostly expected in debt market, and equities may still see outflows. The equity market must give high returns and improve their earnings to bring confidence in foreign portfolio investors," a dealer at a public-sector bank said.

 

Meanwhile, India's goods trade deficit rose over 25% on year to $28.21 billion in May, which weighed on the market sentiment and, thereby, on the rupee. However, the deficit was slightly lower than $28.38 billion in April.

 

Dealers said importers bought dollars to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, as they were cautious and uncertain about the sustainability of the peace deal. "Compared to other days, they (importers) were less, because there are 4 days for signing, anything can happen in between," a dealer at a foreign bank said. He expects importers to buy dollars more actively if there is not much clarity on details of the peace deal. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7100	94.6800	94.4525	94.7700	95.1100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	267.21	261.86	267.21	261.86	269.89

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended lower as traders sold forward dollars, fearing that the rupee may appreciate further amid positive sentiment in the market following the peace deal, dealers said. However, the fall in premiums was limited by banks buying dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said. 

 

Further, US Treasury yields fell after the US-Iran deal, which also limited the fall in premiums, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.45%, down from 4.48% Friday. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.82%, down from 2.84% at Friday's close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 267.21 paise, against Friday's close of 269.89 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

Tuesday, the rupee will take cues from movement in crude oil prices amid developments related to the peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said.

 

"Trend for the rupee looks upward if the deal is implemented to satisfaction without any problems emanating from the three nations US, Iran, and Israel," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. "Still, five days to go for the deal to be signed in Switzerland and in the meanwhile we will have to keep a watch on how the markets behave due to uncertainty that could come out of the deal."

 

The Indian currency is also likely to take cues from movement in the price of gold and the dollar index, dealers said. "Many are selling dollars and buying gold, so gold prices need to be watched," a dealer at a foreign bank said.  

 

Dealers expect importers to continue to buy dollars till there is clarity on details of the peace deal, weighing on the Indian currency. They see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 94.40 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.40-94.80 against the dollar Tuesday.  

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India Rupee: World FX: Dollar dn as safe-haven demand fades on US-Iran deal

 

	AT 1440 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3432	1.3461	1.3413	1.3408
EUR/USD	1.1609	1.1622	1.1577	1.1572
NZD/USD	0.5850	0.5864	0.5831	0.5828
AUD/USD	0.7075	0.7088	0.7044	0.7042
USD/JPY	160.0940	160.2300	159.7380	160.2380
USD/CAD	1.3968	1.3988	1.3951	1.3993
EUR/JPY	185.8710	185.9570	183.9796	185.4700
CHF/USD	1.2615	1.2618	1.2556	1.2536
EUR/CHF	0.9202	0.9220	0.9201	0.9230

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index fell Monday as its safe-haven demand faded after the US and Iran announced a peace deal that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. At 1440 IST, the dollar index was at 99.52, down from 99.81 Friday. The index touched a 10-day low of 99.38 Monday. 

 

The dollar was also under pressure as crude oil prices dropped back to early March levels and equities around the world rallied amid positive sentiment in the market. Brent crude August futures fell to $82.59 per barrel at 1440 IST from $87.33 per barrel on Friday. 

 

The euro rose 0.3% against the dollar as German wholesale selling prices in May fell 0.6% from the previous month, lower that market expectation of a 0.8?ll. The wholesale selling prices for May rose 5.9% year-on-year. 

 

The pound sterling rose 0.3% against the dollar Monday. The Japanese yen rose marginally against the dollar. The Australian dollar rose 0.6%, the most among major currencies Monday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premium down as traders sell forward dlrs, fearing rupee's rise

 

	AT 1414 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.6650	94.6800	94.5775	94.7650	95.1100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	265.21	261.86	265.71	261.86	269.89

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell as traders sold forward dollars, fearing that the rupee may appreciate further amid positive sentiment in the market, dealers said. The market remained positive as crude oil prices fell sharply after the US and Iran reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

 

The rupee jumped to 94.4525 a dollar in early trade as crude oil prices dropped to an over three-month low on hopes that the war will end after the deal is signed on Friday, dealers said. Brent crude August futures fell to $83.58 per barrel at 1353 IST from $87.33 per barrel on Friday.

 

However, losses in premiums were limited as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said. "The rupee opened gap down, around 60 paise – which is around two months forward premium. Why wouldn't importers buy at this level then? I expect more importers to come and buy further," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Further, US Treasury yields fell amid the US-Iran agreement, which also limited losses for forwards, dealers said. At 1353 IST, the US Treasury yield was at 4.44%, up from 4.48% Friday. 

 

At 1353 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80%, against Friday's close of 2.84%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 265.21 paise, against Friday's close of 269.89 paise.

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India Rupee: Pares some gains as importers buy dollars; fall in oil supports

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7350	94.6800	94.5775	94.7650	95.1100

 

MUMBAI – The rupee pared some early gains against the dollar as banks bought dollars for importers, noting relatively low dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. "The buying (of dollars) is there today, but not very aggressive," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "Deal is not signed yet. Anything can happen in a week, so the market is cautious."

 

The rupee gained as traders sold long dollar positions on hope that the Indian unit will strengthen further after the US and Iran sign a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Investors' hope of dollar inflows into the market, owing to the measures rolled out by the Reserve Bank of India also boosted the Indian unit, dealers said. "The dollar inflows due to FCNR deposit rates revision will start coming in by July, so the impact from the measures will only show once the flows begin to materialise," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The rupee touched a high of 94.4525 a dollar in early trade Monday as Brent crude oil prices dropped to an over three-month low, owing to the peace deal between the US and Iran. The deal included reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, suspension of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, and an end to the US's naval blockade on Iranian ports. Brent crude oil prices for August futures fell to $83.50 per barrel at 1200 IST from $87.33 per barrel on Friday and $90.38 Thursday. 

 

A few dealers speculated that state-owned banks sold dollars in early trade, likely to the Reserve Bank of India, which supported the rupee further. A sharp rise in domestic equities also boosted the Indian currency, according to dealers. At 1209 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 1.3?ch. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.35-94.90. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.90 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 15

 

MUMBAI – At 1100 IST, the rupee was at 94.5500 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.6800 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.1100. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.05	94.80	94.35	94.20
Private-sector bank	94.80	94.70	94.30	94.20
Foreign bank	95.00	94.80	94.30	94.15
Brokerage firm	94.80	94.75	94.35	94.20
Brokerage firm	94.95	94.85	94.35	94.05

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Jumps on fall in crude oil as US, Iran reach peace deal

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.6000	94.6800	94.5775	94.7350	95.1100

 

MUMBAI – The rupee jumped against the dollar in early trade as crude oil prices fall sharply, owing to an agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fully for global trade. In a post on Truth Social on Monday, US President Donald Trump said, "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!."  

 

An Iranian official said in a statement that the deal with the US includes the immediate suspension of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and an end to the US's naval blockade on Iranian ports. Brent crude oil prices for August futures fell to an over-three-month low of $83.35 per barrel at 0915 IST from $87.33 per barrel on Friday and $90.38 Thursday. The rupee gained, following a rise in Asian currencies due to positive sentiment in the market as both warring nations reached an agreement to end the war that started four months back. "This is very positive news for the market, but a deal has not been signed yet, so the market will be cautious," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

A sharp rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0915 IST, the Sensex and the Nifty 50 were up 1.5?ch. Selling by foreign portfolio investors has scaled down significantly amid the Reserve Bank of India's measures to attract dollar inflows. FPIs bought $166.08 million in the Indian market on Jun. 11 compared to sales of $37.66 million and $181.75 million on Jun. 10 and Jun. 9, respectively. 

 

However, market participants expect gains for the Indian currency to be limited, as importers may buy dollars, given the relatively low dollar-rupee levels.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.35-94.85. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.35 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 15

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	94.90	94.40
Private-sector bank	95.20	94.70
Private-sector bank	95.00	94.50
Private-sector bank	95.00	94.30
Private-sector bank	95.15	94.50
Foreign bank	95.20	94.55
Brokerage firm	95.30	94.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Rise as crude drops after US, Iran reach peace deal

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies rose sharply in early trade Monday as oil prices dropped after the US and Iran reached a peace deal, which will be signed on Friday. The deal includes the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a third of global oil. "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow," US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social Monday.

 

Brent crude oil prices for August delivery fell to an over-three-month low of $83.95 a barrel from $87.33 Friday. An Iranian official said the deal with the US includes the immediate suspension of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, and an end to the US's naval blockade on Iranian ports. Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif said the peace deal would be signed in Switzerland on Friday.

 

Asian stocks also rose sharply, with the Nikkei 225 gaining 5% in early trade, as both warring countries reached a peace deal. 

 

The South Korean won rose 0.3% to 1517.74 a dollar from 1517.89 Friday as crude oil fell sharply. The won touched a 15-day low of 1503.50 Monday. The Philippine peso rose marginally to 60.68 a dollar from 60.72 Friday. The Chinese yuan inched higher to 6.75 a dollar from 6.76 a dollar Friday. 

 

The Thai baht rose sharply to 32.54 from 32.68 a dollar Friday. The bhat rose the most among Asian peers. The Taiwan dollar was up 0.3% at 31.52 from 31.61 a dollar Friday.  (Divya Moolayattil)  End

 

US$1 = INR 94.7100

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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