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Informist, Monday, Jun. 22, 2026

By Arundathi A R

MUMBAI – After snapping a five-day rally on Friday, headline equity indices are expected to resume their rise Monday amid ongoing peace talks between the US and Iran, with mediators Qatar and Pakistan saying the warring countries had agreed ‌to a roadmap towards a final deal within 60 days. Easing of oil prices to below $80 a barrel is also expected to fuel market sentiment. However, concerns will persist as US President Donald Trump again threatened Iran with strikes. Major stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed in early trade.

Trump threatened Iran with strikes if it did not stop Hezbollah amid continued clashes with Israel in Lebanon. However, Iran dismissed the warning, saying it was prepared to fight, BBC reported. According to a senior US diplomat engaged in the talks, negotiations between the countries to reach a final deal to end the war are expected to continue in Switzerland, according to the BBC report.

"Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble," CNBC reported, quoting Trump in a Truth Social post, referring to Iran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. "If they don't, we'll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!"

In an interview with Fox News, Trump added he had told Iranian officials if they closed the strait, "you won't have a country", and threatened to take over the waterway, the CNBC report said. Meanwhile, at the talks in Switzerland, US Vice-President J.D. Vance said progress had been made towards ending hostilities, adding, "These things are always a little bit messy," according to the report by CNBC. "Even as Trump was threatening Iran, Vance told reporters the US president had "asked us to turn over a new leaf to transform our relationship with the people of Iran."

At 0741 IST, Brent Crude oil August futures were over 1% lower at $79.46 a barrel. The price was still 9% higher than the pre-war level of $72.87 per barrel. According to a report by DD News, the Trump administration on Sunday said Iran would once again be able to sell oil in international markets as part of an emerging diplomatic framework between Washington and Tehran.

According to broking firm Emkay Global Financial, the post-war rally is running into rough weather, and equities may pause due to multiple headwinds. "In the short term, we see markets consolidating at current levels, with some risk of a sell-off if oil crosses $85/bbl," it said in a strategy report. However, the brokerage said it would view any weakness as an entry opportunity and remain constructive on the broader market.

The US Federal Open Market Committee, which kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, and the Bank of Japan hiking rates by over 25 basis points was "incrementally negative for foreign capital flows to India, as tighter global monetary conditions lift risk aversion and reduce appetite for EM (emerging market) assets," the broking firm said in the strategy report. "In the short term, Indian yields should be relatively immune, as the RBI's aggressive rupee defense measures are expected to encourage strong capital flows through the FCNR(B) and ECB windows."

With the delayed onset of the monsoon and the El Nio expected to persist through the rest of 2026 and well into 2027, the medium-term outlook is seen as poor, said the brokerage. "This raises near-term risks to inflation and rural incomes. However, we expect the economy to weather this shock."

On Friday, foreign institutional investors and domestic investors reversed their activity. Foreign investors net bought shares worth INR 48.59 billion, while domestic investors net sold shares of INR 11.60 billion.

Along with US-Iran talks, crude oil price movements, monsoon updates, and foreign investment flows, market participants are also expected to watch the annual general meetings of Infosys, Trent, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, and Cipla, scheduled for this week.

At 0737 IST, the June futures of GIFT Nifty were at 24146, up 97.50 points or 0.4%. This was over 130 points higher than the Nifty 50's close of 24013.10 on Friday, suggesting a higher opening for Monday. The July contract of the GIFT Nifty was at 24234.50, up 62 points or 0.3%. "Going forward, we reiterate our 'buy on dips' trading approach as long as the index holds above 23750 spot level on a closing basis," Vipin Kumar, technical and derivatives analyst at Globe Capital Market, said. "A decisive close above 24200 could lead it towards 24500–24600 spot levels. The 24,600 spot level will act as a strong positional resistance, and a weekly close above it will convert the medium-term sideways trend to a bullish one."

Among Asian equity markets, Taiwan's TAIEX led the pack of gainers, and was up nearly 3%. On the other hand, the SSE Composite Index logged a loss of over 1%. US equity markets were shut on Friday for the Juneteenth holiday.  End

US$1 = INR 94.32

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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