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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 23, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended off its day's low against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India likely intervened through dollar sales via state-owned banks, dealers said. The RBI likely sold around $1 billion to support the rupee, some dealers said. However, the Indian unit was weighed by banks' dollar purchases on behalf of importers and a strengthening dollar. 

 

"The rupee was expected to rise because the US lifted sanctions on Iranian oil amid progress in US-Iran talks. But, buying (of dollars) came in aggressively, probably because the Strait of Hormuz opened and crude is expected to stay in same range, so there are likely more oil deals," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "There was no one on the selling side, so the RBI stepped in to give some liquidity in market." 

 

The Indian unit hit a low of 94.9200 a dollar during the day but went on to settle at 94.7350 a dollar on Tuesday, marginally down from 94.6775 a dollar on Monday. The rupee moved in the range of 28 paise during the day. Most Asian currencies were also down 0.1-0.5% against the dollar, with the Thai Baht being the worst performer. 

 

The Indian unit and other Asian currencies were under pressure as the dollar index remained strong, above the 100 mark for the fifth consecutive days, on expectation that the Federal Reserve may hike rates in September, they said. The dollar index was at 101.14 at 1530 IST, up from 101.00 Monday. Dealers said the focus of the rupee has shifted to dollar movement from crude oil prices, as geopolitical tensions have started subsiding, with both warring nations negotiating a permanent peace treaty. 

 

Crude oil prices fell Tuesday after the US lifted sanctions on Iran and issued a 60-day licence to sell its oil in international markets. This supported the Indian unit, dealers said. US Vice-President J.D. Vance said the negotiations between the US and Iran were going "very, very good." Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the US has agreed to release $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $76.80 a barrel at 1530 IST, down from $77.90 Monday. 

 

However, importers heavily bought dollars, fearing a further fall of the rupee, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. "The war news is old now and the market is moving purely due to flows. The selling has been falling for a few days and there was just heavy buying, due to which there was a sharp one-sided movement," a dealer at a public sector bank said.  

 

Meanwhile, the RBI likely sold dollars to keep the rupee from falling below 95.00 a dollar, dealers said. "The RBI was in at various levels. It came it at 94.70 (a dollar), then at 94.92 (dollar). Once the dollar inflows start coming in, the RBI can be comfortable," a dealer at private sector bank said.

 

Dealers said some banks sold dollars for exporters and foreign portfolio investors, which also limited the fall of the rupee. "One chunk of dollar inflows came into the market last week. Now, the war has subsided, so the market is waiting for the RBI to issue detailed FAQs (frequently asked questions) on Foreign Currency Non-Resident deposit scheme. Once that is out, banks can pitch their products and attract inflows," a dealer at another private sector bank said. 

 

Market participants are expecting clarity on various concerns, such as offering leverage against foreign currency non-resident bank deposits and premature closure of Non-Resident Indian deposits amid fresh FCNR (B) dollar deposits offering higher interest rates. The central bank earlier this month announced a swap facility to cover the full hedging costs for banks raising fresh three- to five-year FCNR(B) deposits till Sept. 30.

 

Domestic equities slumped Tuesday, tracking a decline in equity markets globally, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Both the Sensex and the Nifty 50 ended 1.2% lower each.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7350	94.6900	94.6400	94.9200	94.6775
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	279.00	281.00	288.00	277.50	282.32

 

 

FORWARDS 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures as dealers speculated that the RBI may have sold dollars for long-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said. 

 

However, banks purchased dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, which curbed the downward pressure on forward premiums, dealers said. The one-year forward premium rose to a high of 3.04% or 288.00 paise during the day. The fall in premium was also limited due to a decline in the 10-year US treasury yield to 4.48% at 1530 IST from 4.51% Monday. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.95% at 1530 IST, down from Monday's close of 2.98%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 279.00 paise, against 282.32 paise Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index and crude oil prices, amid evolving developments related to the US-Iran peace deal, dealers said. Investors await the US PCE inflation data and provisional purchasing managers' survey figures for May, due Thursday, for clarity on the Fed's move in the next meeting.

 

Market participants will track foreign fund inflows following a slew of measures announced by the RBI earlier this month to attract foreign capital, they said. "With risk-off sentiment prevailing, the rupee may remain volatile in the near term...the dollar movement and foreign fund flows likely to remain the key drivers," Jateen Trivedi, vice president research analyst - commodity and currency, LKP Securities, said in a note.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which will weigh on the rupee. Some dealers expect exporters to step in to sell dollars if the rupee touches 94.95 a dollar.

 

The RBI is likely to intervene as the Indian unit approaches 95.00 a dollar but not very aggressively, dealers said. They see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.00 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit to 95.30. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.50–95.00 against the dollar Wednesday.  

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr holds firm on rate hike hopes; US inflation eyed

 

	AT 1400 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3218	1.3254	1.3213	1.3245
EUR/USD	1.1406	1.1439	1.1405	1.1429
NZD/USD	0.5683	0.5716	0.5683	0.5712
AUD/USD	0.6944	0.7002	0.6943	0.7001
USD/JPY	161.4440	161.7400	161.2700	161.5020
USD/CAD	1.4179	1.4186	1.4152	1.4146
EUR/JPY	184.1530	184.8430	184.0700	184.6010
CHF/USD	1.2346	1.2380	1.2345	1.2363
EUR/CHF	0.9238	0.9250	0.9231	0.9238

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index held firm above 100 for five straight days on market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike rates in September. The dollar continued to strengthen as two major currencies in the dollar index – the euro and Japanese yen – weakened due to political turmoil and the impact of the West Asia war, respectively. The dollar index was at 101.10 at 1330 IST, up from 101.00 Monday. 

 

Investors await the US PCE inflation data and provisional purchasing managers' survey figures for May, due Thursday, for clarity on the Fed's move in the next meeting. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh had emphasised that policymakers were committed to bringing US inflation back to the 2% target.

 

The recent fall in oil prices has eased concerns over inflation. Crude oil prices fell Tuesday after the US lifted sanctions on Iran and issued a 60-day licence to sell its oil in international markets. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $77.31 a barrel, down from $77.90 Monday. Crude oil prices have plunged from May's average of $92.05 a barrel.

 

The euro was down marginally against the dollar as the Eurozone's flash Manufacturing PMI was at 51.3 in June, lower than 51.6 in May, but better than market expectation of 51.2, data released Tuesday showed. The overall business activity has improved significantly, but remained in the contraction phase.  

 

The pound sterling was steady against the dollar Tuesday as investors awaited flash estimates of UK purchasing managers' surveys on manufacturing and services sector activity later in the day. The market digested political turmoil in the UK, where Keir Starmer resigned as UK's prime minister. 

 

The Japanese yen snapped a three-day losing streak and rose marginally to 161.54 a dollar from 161.76 Monday. Markets will closely watch remarks by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at an event to be held in Tokyo on Wednesday as they speculate an additional interest rate hike later in the year to support the yen, which neared a 40-year low last week.

 

The Canadian dollar and Swiss franc rose marginally Tuesday. The Swedish krona was down 0.2% at 9.62 a dollar from 9.60 Monday. (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Premiums a tad dn on speculation of RBI's forward dollar sales

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7375	94.6900	94.7575	94.6400	94.6775
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	282.00	281.00	288.00	281.00	282.32

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell slightly across tenures as some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India may have sold dollars for long-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said. The RBI sold dollars in the spot market at around 94.70 a dollar, they said.
 

The rupee fell to a low of 94.9200 a dollar on Tuesday. However, losses for the Indian unit were limited in the spot market as the RBI intervened through dollar sales,  dealers said. "The importers were buying (dollars) continuously, with sellers taking a back foot. The RBI was just creating a new liquidity zone in the market. Once the rupee touches 94.95 (a dollar), we may see exporters selling," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Considering spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

 

However, banks purchased dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further fall of the rupee, which curbed the downward pressure on forward premiums, dealers said. The one-year forward premium rose to a high of 3.04% or 288.00 paise Tuesday.

 

The fall in premium was also limited due to a decline in the 10-year US treasury yield to 4.48% at 1300 IST from 4.51% Monday. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.97% at 1300 IST, down from Monday's close of 2.98%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 282.00 paise, against 282.32 paise Monday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Down as importers buy dollars; RBI's intervention limits fall

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7375	94.6900	94.7575	94.6400	94.6775

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar as banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers actively amid a fall in crude oil prices, dealers said. "Now that the Strait of Hormuz is open and oil prices are falling, more deals are happening, and that's probably why oilers are buying aggressively," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

However, the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars through state-owned banks, limiting further fall of the Indian unit. The RBI was selling dollars at 94.70 a dollar, dealers said.  

 

Crude oil prices fell Tuesday after the US lifted sanctions on Iran and issued a 60-day licence to sell its oil in international markets, which limited the fall of the Indian unit. US Vice-President J.D. Vance said the negotiations between the US and Iran were going "very, very good." Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the US has agreed to release $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were at $76.80 a barrel, down from $77.90 Monday. Crude oil prices have plunged from May's average of $92.05 a barrel. "The rupee was expected to rise today, considering the progress in peace talks and fall in crude. But the importers are buying at every dip, and the rupee is bouncing back," the dealer said. 

 

Meanwhile, a few dealers said the focus of the rupee has shifted to dollar movement from crude oil prices. "The war is almost over and crude will likely stay at $70-$76 (a barrel). So, the market is moving towards the dollar, expecting the rate hike as soon as this September," a dealer at another private sector bank said. Investors await the US PCE inflation data and provisional purchasing managers' survey figures for May, due Thursday, after the Federal Reserve recently signalled the possibility that its next move could be to raise interest rates. The dollar index firmed up to 101.06 from 101.00 Monday, which weighed on Indian unit. 

 

The rupee also got support from foreign banks' dollar sales for foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. However, the volume of FPI inflows has reduced significantly compared to the previous week, they said. FPIs have net invested $221 million so far in June compared to an outflow of $4.48 billion in May. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.50-94.80 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Tad down as dlr holds firm; fall in crude oil supports

 

	AT 0932 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7300	94.6900	94.7575	94.6400	94.6775

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell a tad against the dollar as the dollar held firm above 100 for five straight days on expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike rates in September, dealers said. Asian currencies also fell in early trade as the strong dollar continued to weigh. At 0900 IST, the dollar index was at 101.04, slightly higher than 100.99 Monday. 

 

However, the fall of the rupee was limited as crude oil prices remained lower amid progress in peace talks between the US and Iran. US Vice-President J.D. Vance said Iran has agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country, though this claim was disputed by Iran. The US has also allowed Iran to sell oil in the international market for 60 days, giving economic relief to Tehran. Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the US has agreed to release $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets. These positive developments kept Brent Crude oil prices for August lower at $77.56 a barrel, from $77.90 Monday. 

Dealers expect banks to buy dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation of the rupee, which will weigh further on the Indian unit. "Importers' dollar purchases to be higher today as non-deliverable forwards are on upside, which will mirror in the spot market," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

If the rupee breaches 94.90 a dollar, dealers expect exporters to step in to sell dollars, limiting further depreciation of the Indian unit. For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.50-94.80 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 23

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	94.80	94.15
Private-sector bank	94.85	94.20
Private-sector bank	94.90	94.40
Private-sector bank	94.80	94.25
Foreign bank	94.80	94.30
Brokerage firm	94.90	94.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as dlr demand offsets impact of lower crude

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell in early trade Tuesday as a fall in crude oil prices amid progress in the peace deal between the US and Iran was offset by a stronger dollar. The dollar continued to strengthen as two major currencies in the dollar index – the euro and Japanese yen – weakened due to political yyrmoil and the impact of the West Asia war, respectively. Renewed expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise its rates this year also drove the dollar rally. The dollar index was at 101.00 at 0700 IST, up from 100.99 Monday.

 

Crude oil prices were broadly steady with slight movement on the downside as talks between the US and Iran progressed well, with US Vice-President J.D. Vance describing the first round of negotiations as "very, very good", and said Iran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country, although this claim was disputed by Iran. The US also issued a 60-day licence allowing Iran to sell oil in the international market. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $77.99 a barrel at 0700 IST, slightly up from $77.90 Monday.

 

Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the US has agreed to release $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets. US President Donald Trump said that any released Iranian assets will be used to buy US produce, but Iranian official countered this, saying Tehran is not obliged to buy agricultural products from the US.

 

The South Korean won fell 0.2% to 1536.60 a dollar from 1533.37 Monday as markets continued to price in the possibility of further Fed rate tightening. The Philippine peso fell for the sixth consecutive day Tuesday to 61.22 a dollar from 60.99 Monday. The peso turned out to be the worst performer among its Asian peers this week. The Thai baht fell for five consecutive days and was down slightly at 32.96 a dollar. The Chinese yuan was also down slightly at 6.77 a dollar Tuesday.

 

The Malayasian ringgit broke a three-day losing streak and rose 0.3% to 4.13 a dollar from 4.15 Monday. The Taiwan dollar also rose marginally to 31.60 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.7350

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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