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Informist, Monday, Jul. 13, 2026

By Divya Moolayattil

MUMBAI – The Indian unit settled at a one-month low as crude oil prices shot up amid escalation in war between the US and Iran and banks' dollar purchases on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, the rupee recovered from over 7-week low against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India intervened through dollar sales via state-owned banks, dealers said.

"After breaching 95.80 (a dollar), the rupee reversed direction and was trading at 95.60 dollar for rest of the day. Only RBI can move the rupee by 20-30 paise in just 2 mins," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

The Indian unit hit a low of 95.8550 a dollar during the day but went on to settle at 95.6200 a dollar on Monday, sharply down from 95.3250 a dollar on Monday. The rupee moved in the range of 28 paise during the day. Most Asian currencies were also down 0.1-0.3% against the dollar, with the Malayasian ringgit being the worst performer, followed by Indian unit.  More

The rupee started the day on a weaker note as crude oil prices rose 4% in early trade from Friday and 11% from the pre-war level amid escalation in the war between the US and Iran. Only six vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz Sunday, which is a five-week low, media reported citing data from ship-tracking firm Kpler.

This comes after Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway and one of the biggest flashpoints in the war. Iranian state media reported explosions in several areas near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $78.15 a barrel, sharply up from $76.01 Friday.

Banks bought the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers amid concern that the Indian currency could weaken further and crude oil prices could continue rising, dealers said. "In the morning there was heavy buying, but post 1 pm (1300 IST) demand subsided. The market was not ready to cross 95.80 a dollar, because there was no conviction. And RBI was there to support," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

However, state-owned banks sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which limited the rupee's fall to a key psychological level of 96.00 a dollar. "The RBI kept the rupee behaving today. They were present at multiple levels, at around 95.70 and then at 95.80 (a dollar)," a dealer at private sector bank said. 

Dealers said some banks sold dollars during the day due to inflows from foreign funds into Indian markets and from Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Banks) deposits, which also prevented the Indian unit from falling further. Banks have mobilised nearly $10 billion so far from FCNR (B) deposits, they added. 

Foreign fund inflows have risen following the government and the RBI's announcement of a slew of measures in June to make Indian markets more attractive to foreign investors. Foreign portfolio investors became net buyers from June, the first time since the war started. This buying momentum accelerated significantly into July, with FPIs pumping $2.53 billion into Indian markets in just two weeks of the month, compared with $2.69 billion for the entire month of June. Foreign portfolio investors sold a net $21.8 billion in Indian bonds and shares in the three months through May after the war started, which is more than double the selling in 2025. 

The dollar index edged down slightly during the day, which supported the rupee, as market participants await the US consumer price index inflation data, due Wednesday. However, it stayed near 101 as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid the rapid escalation in the war between the US and Iran.

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium erased most gains as dealers speculate the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said.

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was near a three-week high of 2.87% or 274.55 paise Monday, after falling for two days straight, as banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers, fearing a sharp rise in dollar-rupee premium level amid escalations in West Asia war, they said.  

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.81%, up from 2.80% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 268.77 paise, slightly higher than 266.62 paise at close Friday.

OUTLOOK 

On Tuesday, the rupee will track movements in crude oil prices as market participants focus on negotiations between the US and Iran, dealers said. They will also track the dollar index as investors shift their focus to US CPI inflation data due Wednesday, which will determine the dollar's further direction.

"FII flows will remain another key factor, as recent improvement in foreign inflows has helped cushion the rupee's downside. If Brent crude fails to sustain above the $80–$82 per barrel zone, it could provide support to the rupee and limit further depreciation," Jateen Trivedi, vice president, research analyst - commodity and currency of LKP Securities, said.

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which will weigh on the rupee. However, they also expect the RBI to intervene if rupee fall under extreme pressure and approaches 96.00 a dollar. 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.80 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit below 96.10. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.50-95.80 against the dollar Tuesday. 

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index near 101 as US-Iran war intensifies

MUMBAI – The dollar index remained near 101 as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid the rapid escalation in the war between the US and Iran. The US military carried out another round of strikes on Iran early Monday. The US Central Command forces said the US attacks were intended to impede Iran's ability to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media reported explosions in several areas near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran launched missiles in retaliation, targeting US military bases and facilities in several Gulf states. At 1430 IST, the index was 100.88 against 101.14 Friday.

Crude oil prices also rose sharply, which weighed on currencies that rely on imported oil. At 1430 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery rose to $77.87 a barrel from $76.01 Friday. This was up nearly 9% from the pre-war levels. Market participants will keep a close watch on the US consumer price index inflation data, due Wednesday, which may provide further clarity on the US interest rate outlook and direction for the dollar. 

The euro fell sharply by 0.4% to $1.140 from $1.44 Friday as the escalating tensions boosted inflationary pressures for the eurozone. The pound sterling also fell 0.4% to $1.34 from $1.34 Friday. 

The Japanese yen erased gains it posted in the last two days and fell to 162 a dollar. The Swiss franc plunged 0.7% Monday. The Swedish krona also fell 0.6% to 9.69 a dollar Friday. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee:Premiums cut most gains on RBI fwd dlr sale; importers buy weighs

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium erased most gains as dealers speculate the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. "Supply intervention is there, but we can't say right now if the intervention is aggressive...seems like it," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

The rupee hit a low of 95.8550 a dollar in the spot market on Monday due to importers' demand for dollars, but RBI's intervention prevented rupee from falling further. 

Considering spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium neared three-week high of 2.87% or 274.55 paise Monday, after falling for two days straight, as banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers, fearing a sharp rise in dollar-rupee premium level amid escalations in West Asia war, they said. "There is good volume in the market, importers were rushing in once the rupee crossed 95.50 (a dollar)," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

At 1332 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.81%, up from 2.80% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 268.55 paise, slightly higher than 266.62 paise at close Friday. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Falls sharply on importers' demand; RBI's active dlr sales help

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar as banks bought the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers amid concerns that the Indian currency could weaken further and crude oil prices could continue rising, dealers said. "There was heavy buying, especially by oilers (oil companies), so the rupee breached 95.80 (a dollar). Right now, the deciding factor is just the oil prices," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

However, state-owned banks sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India aggressively, which limited the rupee's fall to a key psychological level of 96.00 a dollar. "Right now, RBI's hand is there at all levels, else the rupee would have gone over 95.95 already," a dealer at a private sector bank said. Dealers said they don't expect the Indian unit to touch 96.00 a dollar Monday as the RBI is likely to counter the dollar demand. 

Banks also sold dollars on behalf of exporters who wanted to capilalise on a higher dollar-rupee level, which supported the Indian unit, dealers said. Exporters started selling dollars at 95.80 a dollar. However, they are still waiting for more cues on the West Asia war front, dealers said. 

The rupee started the day on a weaker note as crude oil prices rose 4% from Friday and 11% from the pre-war level amid escalation in the war between the US and Iran. Only six vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz Sunday, which is a five-week low, media reported citing data from ship-tracking firm Kpler. Renewed strikes between the US and Iran and attacks ‌on ships in the West Asia heightened safety concerns. This comes after Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway and one of the biggest flashpoints in the war. Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $79.11 a barrel, sharply up from $76.01 Friday.

The US military carried out another round of strikes on Iran early Monday. Iranian state media reported explosions in several areas near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran launched missiles in retaliation, targeting US military bases and facilities in several Gulf states. 

Dealers said some banks sold dollars during the day due to inflows from foreign funds into Indian markets and from Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Banks) deposits, which also prevented the Indian unit from falling further. Banks have mobilised nearly $10 billion so far from FCNR (B) deposits, they added. 

Foreign fund inflows have risen following the government and the RBI's announcement of a slew of measures in June to make Indian markets more attractive to foreign investors. Foreign portfolio investors became net buyers from June, the first time since the war started. This buying momentum accelerated significantly into July, with FPIs pumping $2.53 billion into Indian markets in just two weeks of the month, compared to $2.69 billion for the entire month of June. Foreign portfolio investors sold a net $21.8 billion in Indian bonds and shares in the three months through May after the war started, which is more the double the selling in 2025. 

Market participants keep a close watch on the CPI inflation data, due later in the day, which will give cues to rupee movement. According to Informist poll, CPI inflation is seen rising to an 18-month high to 4.3% in June from 3.93% in May.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.65-95.95. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.90 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 13

MUMBAI – At 1100 IST, the rupee was at 95.7675 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.7050 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.3250. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

(Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Falls sharply as crude oil rises sharply on US-Iran escalation

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar in early trade as Brent crude oil price shot up after an escalation in attacks between the US and Iran over the weekend, dealers said. The strikes came after Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway and one of the biggest flashpoints in the war, while accusing the US of violating the ceasefire agreement. Iranian state media reported explosions in several areas near the Strait of Hormuz. At 0915 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery rose nearly 4% to $79.07 a barrel from $76.01 Friday. This was up nearly 11% from the pre-war levels. 

Banks bought dollars for importers, who feared a further fall of the rupee amid rising uncertainty over the US-Iran peace deal, which put pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. "Since 95.50 (a dollar), a key support level broke, we are already seeing importers buying in panic mode. Now, all eyes are on the RBI (Reserve Bank of India). They may come in aggressively at 95.85," a dealer at a public sector bank said.    

Dealers speculated that banks sold dollars on behalf of the RBI, which prevented the Indian unit from falling to 96.00 per dollar. "If 95.85 (a dollar) is breached, then the rupee will easily touch 96.00," the dealer said. The all-time low of the rupee is 96.96 per dollar. 

Dealers expect banks to sell dollars during the day due to inflows from foreign funds into Indian markets and from Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Banks) deposits, which will likely prevent the Indian unit from falling further, they said. Banks have mobilised nearly $10 billion so far from FCNR (B) deposits, they said. 

Foreign fund inflows have risen following the government and the RBI's June announcement of a slew of measures to make Indian markets more attractive to foreign investors. Foreign portfolio investors net invested $2.53 billion in the Indian market in just two weeks in July, compared with $2.69 billion for the entire month of June. FPIs sold a net $21.8 billion in Indian bonds and shares in the three months through May after the war started.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.40-95.80. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.85 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 13

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

(Divya Moolayattil)

India Rupee - Asia FX: Down on spike in oil as US, Iran trade strikes

MUMBAI – Asian currencies fell in early trade Monday as oil prices shot up after the US military carried out another round of strikes on Iran early Monday. The US Central Command forces said the US attacks were intended to impede Iran's ability to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian state media reported explosions in areas near the Strait of Hormuz, including Sirik, Qeshm Island, Jask, and the area west of Bandar Abbas. Iran launched missiles in retaliation, targeting US military bases and facilities in several Gulf states. 

The widespread attack came after Iran shut Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway and one of the biggest flashpoints in the war, while accusing the US of violating the ceasefire agreement. At 0700 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery rose 4% to $79.21 a barrel from $76.01 Friday. This is up nearly 11% from its prewar levels. Asian currencies are vulnerable to a rise in oil prices as most countries in the region depend heavily on crude oil imports.

The dollar index stayed above 101 Monday as investors flocked to safe-haven greenback on rising near-term uncertainty about the end of the war in West Asia. At 0700 IST, the index was 101.14, unchanged from Friday's level. 

The South Korean won fell 0.4% to 1,504.88 a dollar after jumping to 1,498.87 Friday amid dollar sales ahead of the world's second-largest memory chipmaker SK Hynix's debut in the US stock market. The won remains under pressure as foreign investors continued to exit local equities, driven by profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing. FPIs sold more than $100 billion of South Korean equities so far this year. 

The Philippine peso fell 0.2% to 61.57 a dollar from 61.48 Friday as importers continued to buy dollars aggressively. The Thai baht was down 0.3% at 33.45 a dollar as crude oil prices rose sharply. Thailand's headline inflation eased to 2.4% on year in June from 2.8% in May, remaining within the Bank of Thailand's 1–3% target range, which gave some relief to the baht.

The Chinese yuan rose marginally at 6.77 a dollar Monday. Market participants keep a close watch on a slew of Chinese economic data releases due next week, including trade data, second-quarter GDP, industrial production, retail sales, and the unemployment rate. The figures could shape expectations for the yuan's near-term direction. (Divya Moolayattil)

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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