More Stories

Informist, Tuesday, Jul. 14, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell to an eight-week low against the dollar Tuesday as crude oil prices shot up after the US launched another round of attacks on Iran and reinstated the blockade on Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. Banks' dollar purchases for importers also weighed on the Indian currency. The Reserve Bank of India's dollar sales through state-owned banks limited the depreciation of the rupee, they said.  

 

"The market reacted to US-Iran war escalation news overnight," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "That's why non-deliverable forwards were high before the market opened and the rupee crossed 96.00 (a dollar) as soon as it opened. The rupee will depreciate till crude remains elevated."

 

The rupee settled at 96.2000 a dollar, 0.6% down from Monday's close. It moved in a range of 29 paise during the day. While other Asian currencies fell marginally, the rupee dropped sharply, making it the region's worst performer.

 

The rupee opened sharply lower against the dollar as crude oil prices shot up to a one-month high on escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil futures for September delivery jumped to $87.22 a barrel, up from $83.30 Monday and $76.01 Friday. At $87.22 a barrel, crude oil is up nearly 20% from its pre-war level. Crude oil prices rose nearly 13% from Monday's low of $77.28 per barrel.

 

Dealers said that once the rupee hit 96.00 a dollar, stop-losses were triggered on short dollar bets, which further aggravated the Indian currency's fall. Banks bought dollars actively for oil marketing companies and other importers, fearing further depreciation of the rupee and a rise in crude oil prices, which weakened the rupee further, they said. "Throughout the day there was buying. Crude went up by $10 a barrel in a day, so they were in buying in panic mode," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. The Indian unit has fallen 0.9% against the dollar so far this week.

 

However, the fall of the Indian unit was limited as the RBI stepped in through state-owned banks and sold dollars at around 96.15 a dollar. Although the intervention was not aggressive, the RBI made sure the rupee did not fall below 96.25 to a dollar, they said.

 

The dollar gained support from safe-haven demand and the expectation of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve by the end of the year. This, in turn, weighed on the rupee. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 101.18 from 101.27 Monday. Market participants will shift their focus to the US CPI inflation, due Wednesday, which will determine the dollar's direction. 

 

Domestic equities fell sharply Tuesday. The Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex both closed 0.7% lower, putting further pressure on the rupee.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2000	95.9450	95.9400	96.2375	95.6200
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	273.92	273.88	274.62	270.94	268.77

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures Tuesday as the rupee's sharp fall prompted banks to purchase dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who feared the Indian currency would fall further, dealers said. The central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market, which limited the rupee's fall, they said. However, the RBI likely did not conduct buy-sell swaps to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, they added.

 

A rise in US Treasury yields weighed on forward premiums, according to some dealers. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.61% Monday from 4.57% Friday.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.84%, up from 2.81% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 273.92 paise, against 268.77 paise at Monday's close.

 

OUTLOOK

Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from movement in crude oil prices amid resumed hostilities in West Asia, dealers said. They expect the rupee to remain under pressure as long as Brent crude oil price remains high. The currency is also likely to take cues from the movement in the dollar index, they said.

 

The Indian currency may continue to find support from the RBI's dollar sales through state-owned banks, dealers said. "All depends on RBI's selling, but it is difficult to predict the RBI's intervention strategy," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "The next level we can look at for active intervention is 96.50 (a dollar)." However, dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid the looming uncertainty relating to the war in West Asia, exerting more pressure on the Indian currency.

 

Dealers now see strong technical support for the rupee at 96.40 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.80-96.40 against the dollar Wednesday.

---

India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index steady ahead of US Jun CPI; euro rises

 

	AT 1600 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3377	1.3384	1.3343	1.3349
EUR/USD	1.1395	1.1406	1.1378	1.1376
NZD/USD	0.5802	0.5807	0.5749	0.5742
AUD/USD	0.6946	0.6953	0.6913	0.6916
USD/JPY	162.2070	162.4710	162.0590	162.4490
USD/CAD	1.4096	1.4155	1.4082	1.4151
EUR/JPY	184.8320	185.0900	184.7680	184.9000
CHF/USD	1.2308	1.2319	1.2268	1.2271
EUR/CHF	0.9257	0.9281	0.9256	0.9268

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index was steady ahead of the release of US CPI data for June after comments from US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller renewed bets for a rate hike by the Fed. The Fed may need to raise rates in the near term if the US gets another hot reading on core inflation, Waller said. At 1523 IST, the dollar index was at 101.11 from 101.27 Monday.

 

According to an FXStreet poll, the US headline CPI growth cooled to 3.8% on year in June from 4.2% in May, with core figures rising steadily by 2.9%. On a monthly basis, the headline inflation is seen declining by 0.1% while core figures are estimated to have remained steady at 0.2%.

 

The euro was up 0.2% against the dollar. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey voiced concern about renewed tensions in West Asia. Bailey said Tuesday that the "resumption of hostilities in the Gulf underlines instability going forward".

 

The New Zealand dollar rose 0.7% against the dollar, making it one of the region's strongest performers after Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway warned that persistent inflationary pressures and renewed tensions in West Asia could require further monetary policy tightening if businesses continued to pass on higher costs to consumers.  (Kabir Sharma)

---

India Rupee: Premiums up as importers buy fwd dlr on fear rupee may fall more

 

	AT 1235 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.1750	95.9450	95.9400	96.1850	95.6200
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	271.42	273.88	274.62	270.94	268.77

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures Tuesday as the rupee's sharp fall prompted banks to purchase dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear further weakness of the Indian unit, dealers said. The Indian unit fell almost 0.6% against the dollar to an over-seven-week low of 96.1850 a dollar Tuesday, as Brent crude oil price surged amid hostilities between the US and Iran. 

 

"We are seeing more paying happening in the near-term book and only some in the far-end", a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "So far, I don't think RBI (Reserve Bank of India) is doing buy-sell swaps." At 1235 IST, the one-month exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 3.15%, sharply up from 3.05% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 26.53 paise, against 26.40 paise on Monday. 

 

The central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market Tuesday, which limited losses for the Indian currency, dealers said. However, the RBI most likely did not conduct buy-sell swaps to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, they said. Considering spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI typically conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. 

 

However, a rise in US Treasury yields weighed on the forward premiums, as per some dealers. US Treasury yields rose on Monday as the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran came under increasing strain, with the two sides exchanging strikes. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.61% Monday from 4.57% Friday. 

 

At 1235 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.82%, a tad up from 2.81% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 271.42 paise, higher than 268.77 paise at close Monday.  (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Remains sharply dn as crude jumps; RBI intervention limits fall

 

--Dealers: Some PSU banks' dollar sales, likely for RBI, limit rupee's fall 

--Dealers: Some PSU banks selling dollars, likely for RBI, around 96.15/$1 

 

	AT 1156 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.1250	95.9450	95.9400	96.1675	95.6200

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee remained sharply lower against the dollar, below the 96.00 mark, as Brent crude price hit a one-month high as ‌the US reimposed its naval blockade of Iran and also the two countries escalated attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars through state-owned banks, they said. 

 

"The rupee is again tracking oil actively and will continue to track it if it keeps rising so much everyday," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "RBI is there holding the level but not changing (rupee's) course." At 1156 IST, Brent Crude oil price for September delivery was at $84.75 a barrel, up from $83.30 Monday and $76.01 Friday.  

 

The rupee opened at 95.9450 a dollar and quickly fell to 96.1675 a dollar, its lowest level in over seven weeks. Dealers said stop losses were triggered on short dollar bets around 96.00, which further aggravated the Indian unit's fall, they said. "People were expecting RBI to sell (dollars) at open and protect 96.00. Once that did not happen, a lot of short covering happened," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

Noting the rupee's sharp fall, banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, which further weighed on the local unit, dealers said. The Indian unit has fallen over 0.8% against the dollar so far this week. 

 

While the central bank likely sold dollars around 96.15 a dollar, the intervention so far has not been aggressive in nature, according to dealers. Market participants don't expect the RBI to intervene heavily. "RBI can't do much at a time when fundamentals are against rupee. They will let rupee move as per crude's movement," the dealer at a private-sector bank said.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.90-96.30. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.20 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 14

 

MUMBAI – At 1050 IST, the rupee was at 96.1175 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.9450 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.6200. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.50	95.20	95.75	95.65
Public-sector bank	96.40	95.20	95.80	95.60
Private-sector bank	96.45	96.25	95.80	95.70
Private-sector bank	96.55	96.25	95.85	95.75
Foreign bank	96.40	96.20	95.70	95.60
Brokerage firm	96.45	96.25	95.65	95.55
Brokerage firm	96.50	96.30	95.90	95.70

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Falls below 96/$ after 7 wks; oil rises on Iran blockade by US

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.1150	95.9450	95.9450	96.1675	95.6200

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell below 96.00 a dollar for the first time in over seven weeks as crude oil prices shot up to a one-month high amid further escalation between the US and Iran Tuesday, dealers said. The US launched another wave of missiles on Iran shortly after President Donald Trump said he would resume the blockade of Iranian ports, take control of the Strait of Hormuz, and charge 20?es for ships to transit the waterway.

 

"All factors are against the rupee now. Crude had good support at 80 ($/barrel), that breached, so the rupee was definitely going to cross 96.00 (a dollar). Even the dollar inflows may subside due to escalation in the Middle East," a dealer at a private sector bank said.  

 

At 0900 IST, Brent Crude oil prices for September delivery jumped to $84.84 a barrel, up from $83.30 Monday and $76.01 Friday. At $84.84 a barrel, crude oil is 15% higher than its pre-war level. Crude oil prices rose nearly 10% from Monday's low of $77.28 per barrel.  

 

Banks bought dollars actively for oil marketing companies and other importers, who feared further depreciation of the Indian and a sharp rise in oil prices, which weighed on the Indian unit, they said. Dealers expect the traders to take long dollar bets, which will put more pressure on the rupee. 

 

The dollar gained support from investors' safe-haven demand and the expectation of a rate hike by the end of this year to bring inflation to Fed's target rate of 2%. At 0900 IST, the dollar index was at 101.25 from 101.27 Monday. Market participants will shift their focus to the US CPI inflation due on Wednesday, which will determine the dollar's next direction. 

 

Domestic equities fell sharply Tuesday. The Nifty 50 and the Sensex were down 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively, at 0930 IST, which weighed on the Indian unit.

 

Dealers expect the equity outflow from Mylan Inc, part of a global healthcare ‌company Viatris, as it plans to sell up to 92 million shares in Indian drugmaker Biocon Ltd., worth up to $363 million, which will put further pressure on the rupee. Dealers said there could be some dollar inflows into the market from SBI Funds Management Ltd. initial public offering, which will close on Thursday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.75-96.30. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.20 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 14

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.15	95.60
Public-sector bank	96.20	95.60
Private-sector bank	96.10	95.60
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.65
Foreign bank	96.25	95.75
Brokerage firm	96.25	95.70
Brokerage firm	96.25	95.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

---

 India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as oil surges amid renewed US-Iran strikes

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies edged down against the dollar in early trade as oil prices rose to a one-month high after the US launched another round of strikes on Iran on Tuesday. The US resumed strikes hours after President Donald Trump said he would restart the naval blockade of Iran, take control of the Strait of Hormuz and charge heavy fees for ships to transit the waterway. At 0700 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery jumped to $84.11 a barrel, up from $83.30 Monday and $76.01 Friday. At $84.11 a barrel, crude oil is 15% higher than its pre-war level. 

Iranian state media reported explosions in Bandar Abbas and on Kish Island Tuesday. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates said Iran targeted two of its oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, killing an Indian crew member and injuring eight others. Tehran also attacked US military bases in Gulf countries. The US and Iran attacks signalled a return to open war in less than a month after the two sides reached a truce. 

 

The dollar index also rose sharply, partly due to safe-haven demand from renewed tensions between the US and Iran, but more importantly due to US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's hawkish comments. The Fed may need to raise rates in the near-term if it gets another hot reading on core inflation, he said. At 0700 IST, the dollar index was at 101.25 from 101.27 Monday. Market participants will shift their focus to the US CPI inflation due on Wednesday, which will determine the dollar's next direction.

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell marginally to 18126 a dollar from 18100 Monday as the greenback gained strength amid rising uncertainty over the war in West Asia. The Philippine peso was down at 61.63 a dollar from 61.57 Monday. The peso hit a five-week low as higher oil prices put renewed pressure on the currency. 

 

The Thai baht fell slightly to 33.51 from 33.48 Monday. The Taiwan dollar was broadly stable against the dollar at 32.19 Tuesday.

 
Bucking the trend, the South Korean won rose 0.3% to 1492.72 per dollar Tuesday as investors expect South Korea's central bank to raise interest rates on Thursday for the first time in more than three years as inflation remains well above its 2% target.  (Divya Moolayattil)  End

 

 

US$1 = INR 96.2000

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.