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Informist, Tuesday, Jul. 21, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI - The rupee rose sharply against the dollar as banks sold greenbacks linked to foreign inflows. Dealers said inflows were likely related to initial public offerings, foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits, and corporate inflows. However, the Indian unit remained under pressure as crude oil prices stayed firm amid rising hostilities in West Asia.

 

"There was no intervention from the RBI today. It was all genuine flows. The inflows were mainly from the US banks and FPI-heavy banks," a dealer at a foreign sector bank said. 

 

The rupee settled at 96.2350 a dollar Tuesday, erasing losses from the past week and ending 0.2% higher than its previous close. Other Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar, with the Indonesian rupiah emerging as the best performer amongst its peers, while the Philippine peso was the worst performer.  

 

The rupee opened on a slightly positive note as the market saw foreign inflows. Dealers estimated the inflows at just under $1 billion, helping the rupee unit appreciate by 28 paise on Tuesday. "There were some capital inflows, but not really sure if it was for investment in bonds or equity, but there was some good amount of inflows," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "But this is just a one-day flow. The underlying sentiment remains weak and it will fall if crude stays elevated," the dealer said. 

 

Sentiment was also helped by the Reserve Bank of India's swap facility for foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits, which attracted inflows of $17.41 billion as of Friday, according to the RBI. The amount exceeded expectations of several market participants.

 

However, the Indian unit was under pressure as crude oil prices stayed firm amid rising hostilities in West Asia. The Houthis, the Iran-backed armed faction in Yemen, imposed a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia Monday, raising the pressure on volatile global energy markets. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said Monday that Iran will pay "many times over" for the deaths of US soldiers, signalling further escalation in tensions in West Asia.

 

At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were at $89.62 a barrel, up from $89.22 Monday. Crude oil prices have surged over 23% in the last 10 days, rebounding strongly after briefly returning to pre-war levels in early July. 

 

Banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices, which limited gains of the Indian unit, they said. "The buying will be there as the crude oil prices rise. Today, the selling was as much as buying, so it did not impact much," the dealer said. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2350	96.4100	96.1300	96.4150	96.4450
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	280.33	279.64	281.03	277.83	280.67

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell as banks sold dollars for forward delivery, likely linked to foreign fund inflows, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium reversed all gains from Monday and fell to 2.88% or 277.33 paise intraday. 

 

However, the fall in premiums was limited as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. Demand from oil importers for dollars also put pressure on the rupee in the spot market. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.91%, broadly steady from Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 280.33 paise, down from 280.67 paise Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

Wednesday, the rupee will track movements in crude oil prices amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. The local unit will also track movement in the dollar index, they said. "Market participants are now focused on the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on 29 July, which is expected to provide the next major direction for the US dollar," Jateen Trivedi, vice president and research analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said in a note.

 

Market participants expect importers to continue buying dollars, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most dealers expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars if the Indian unit comes under pressure. Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. 

 

Dealers see strong support for the Indian currency at 96.50 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 96.20-96.50 against the dollar on Wednesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index steady; higher crude prices weigh

 

	AT 1423 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3432	1.3456	1.3423	1.3424
EUR/USD	1.1422	1.1429	1.1409	1.1409
NZD/USD	0.5858	0.5872	0.5835	0.5833
AUD/USD	0.7022	0.7023	0.6994	0.6993
USD/JPY	162.6850	162.6980	162.4360	162.4960
USD/CAD	1.4066	1.4084	1.4058	1.4079
EUR/JPY	185.8150	185.8609	185.4100	185.4200
CHF/USD	1.2340	1.2361	1.2331	1.2331
EUR/CHF	0.9255	0.9257	0.9245	0.9242

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index remained steady as investors scaled back expectations of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve at the July meeting, due next week. However, demand for the dollar was intact as investors took to safe-haven assets amid rising hostilities in West Asia. The US bombed Iran for a 10th consecutive night Monday. Explosions were reported in many cities in Iran, including Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island, Chabahar and Konarak. 

 

The dollar index was 100.93 at 1430 IST, down from 101.00 Monday.

 

At 1400 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $88.22 a barrel, down from $89.22 Monday. Crude oil prices have surged over 23% in the last 10 days, rebounding strongly after briefly returning to pre-war levels in early July. The renewed strikes narrowed the focus to the control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked two tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 

 

The euro was down marginally at $1.141 Tuesday. The pound sterling fell slightly to $1.34 Tuesday as the UK's unemployment rate was unchanged while wage growth held steady in the three months through May, adding to expectations that the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged next week. The unemployment rate came in at 4.9%, steady compared with the three months through April, according to data released Tuesday.

 

The Japanese yen continued its depreciating streak for the third day Tuesday and traded at 162.49 a dollar. The Canadian dollar fell 0.3% to 1.407 a dollar. The Swedish krona was marginally down and the Swiss franc fell sharply by 0.4% against the dollar Tuesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums fall as banks sell dollars for likely FX inflows

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2100	96.4100	96.2125	96.4150	96.4450
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	278.83	279.63	280.51	277.83	280.67

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell as banks sold dollars for forward delivery, likely linked to foreign fund inflows, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium reversed all gains from Monday and fell to 2.89% or 278.23 paise Tuesday. 

 

The rupee erased most losses recorded in a week in the spot market, owing to foreign fund inflows in the market and positive sentiment after FCNR (B) deposits exceeded the market expectation. Crude oil prices stayed high, 23?ove pre-war levels, as Iran attacked ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. At 1330 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were at $88.67 a barrel, down from $89.22 Wednesday. 

 

The fall in forward premiums was limited as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices, said dealers. Demand from oil importers for dollars also put pressure on the rupee in the spot market. 

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.90%, lower than Monday's close of 2.91%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 278.83 paise, against 280.67 paise Monday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Up sharply as banks sell dlrs for FX inflows; firm crude weighs

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2350	96.4100	96.2150	96.4150	96.4450

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar as banks sold greenback linked to foreign inflows. "Cash-tom is in tight range now. It seems like there is fix selling, there are some genuine inflows. But, not really sure where the inflows are from," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Few dealers said the inflows could be linked to foreign currency non-resident bank deposits, while others said it could be corporate inflows. Dealers estimate the inflows to be slightly below $1 billion, which helped the rupee strengthen by 15 paise to trade at 96.24 a dollar. 

 

The market sentiment was slightly positive as the Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank deposit scheme attracted inflows of $17.41 billion from Jun. 5 till Friday, as per the RBI data, which is more than the expectation of several market participants. More FCNR (B) inflows could have come as the sentiment prevailed in the market Tuesday, they said. 

 

However, the Indian unit was under pressure as crude oil prices stayed firm amid rising hostilities in West Asia. The Houthis, the Iran-backed armed faction in Yemen, imposed a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia Monday, raising the pressure on volatile global energy markets. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said Monday that Iran will pay "many times over" for the deaths of US soldiers, signalling further escalation in tensions in West Asia.

 

At 1232 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $88.46 a barrel, down from $89.22 Monday. Crude oil prices have surged over 23% in the last 10 days, rebounding strongly after briefly returning to pre-war levels in early July. 

 

Banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, which further put pressure on the Indian unit, they said. "There is demand for dollars, but it was countered by dollar sales in the market today," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.20 and 96.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 96.20 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 21

 

MUMBAI – At 1110 IST, the rupee was at 96.3300 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 96.4100 a dollar, against the previous close of 96.4450. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.55	96.45	96.25	96.15
Private-sector bank	96.50	96.40	96.20	96.10
Private-sector bank	96.70	96.50	96.30	96.20
Foreign bank	96.75	96.65	96.35	96.25
Brokerage firm	96.65	96.55	96.25	96.15
Brokerage firm	96.70	96.50	96.30	96.10

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:Tad up on foreign banks' dollar sales; higher crude prices weigh

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.3375	96.4100	96.3050	96.4150	96.4450

 

MUMBAI – The rupee opened slightly higher as foreign banks sold dollars, dealers said. "Some foreign banks were selling in the morning, that's why rupee (dollar-rupee) is downside. The rupee is consolidating at 96.40 levels after most of the buying happened yesterday (Monday)," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Dealers expect importers to buy dollars during the day, fearing further fall in the Indian unit and a rise in crude oil prices, which will weigh on the rupee. Importers may buy dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee. However, the RBI is likely to step in and sell dollars to curb the rupee's fall Tuesday.  

 

The rupee remains under pressure as crude oil prices stayed firm amid rising hostilities in West Asia. The US and Iran continued to carry out strikes against each other. The Iranian media reported explosions in many cities. Iran also bombed US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait and hit two tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. At 0915 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were at $88.36, down from $89.22 Monday. Brent crude oil prices are over 23% higher than the pre-war level. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.30 and 96.55 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 96.30 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most steady even as inflation, rate hike fears loom

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were steady against the dollar Tuesday as traders continued to gauge rising energy costs and inflation risks due to the continued escalation between the US and Iran. Crude oil prices fell marginally Tuesday but remained near a one-month high as reports of mediation efforts between the US and Iran offset the gains caused by continued retaliation between the two countries and threats of a naval blockade by Yemen's Houthis against Saudi Arabia. The uncertainty of de-escalation in West Asia has raised fears of inflation among Asian countries and reduced foreign inflows.

 

The Dollar Index steadied and remained near 100.98 Tuesday as traders continued to flock to the safe-haven currency amid rising escalations in West Asia. Expectations of a hike in US interest rates due to uncertainty over the West Asia war and fears of inflation due to rising energy costs weighed the greenback down. 

 

The Japanese yen remained flat at 162.49 against the dollar as traders continued to be wary of an intervention from the Bank of Japan. The South Korean won fell marginally Tuesday against the dollar to 1,479.03, but remained at its highest levels since Jul. 9 following the interest rate hike by the Bank of Korea. 

 

The Philippine peso remained flat at 61.67 Tuesday as the country recorded a balance of payments surplus of over $3 billion in June, as its cumulative external payments deficit nearly halved during the first six months of the year, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas data showed. The Thai baht remained flat Tuesday at 33.62 per dollar. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan fell 0.11% to 6.77 per dollar Tuesday from 6.64 Monday. (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 21

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.65	96.30
Public-sector bank	96.75	96.35
Private-sector bank	96.70	96.30
Private-sector bank	96.70	96.40
Brokerage firm	96.65	96.20
Brokerage firm	96.75	96.35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 96.2350

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

With inputs from Janaki Venugopalan

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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