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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 22, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a two-month low against the dollar Wednesday as crude oil prices rose above $94 a barrel after the US and Iran failed to return to the negotiating table and the Iranian-backed Houthi group threatened to block shipping through the Red Sea to US ally Saudi Arabia, dealers said. Active dollar purchases by importers weighed on the rupee. However, the RBI's presence in the market limited the rupee's depreciation. 

 

"Demand (for dollars) was there only because of the geopolitical uncertainty. There was aggressive buying by oil importers because crude oil shot up by over $4 (a barrel) in a day," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

 

The Indian currency fell sharply to 96.5650 per dollar on Wednesday, down 0.4% from Tuesday's close of 96.2350 on Tuesday. The rupee traded in a range of 33 paise during the day. The Indian unit emerged as the worst-performing currency among its Asian peers, which fell 0.1-0.3% against the dollar Wednesday. The rupee was also the worst-performing currency in July, having depreciated more than 2%.  

 

The rupee began the day on a weaker note as crude oil prices shot up as the US and Iran continued intensive attacks. US President Donald Trump threatened to attack a suspected Iranian nuclear site called Pickaxe Mountain "pretty soon, and very heavily", while Tehran launched more retaliatory attacks on US allies Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan even as mediators stepped up efforts to end hostilities in West Asia.

 

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington was willing to negotiate to end the war, but Iran was not "serious" about talks. Brent crude futures for September delivery rose to a six-week high of $94.75 a barrel at 1530 IST, from $91.01 a barrel Tuesday. Currently, crude oil prices are over 30% higher than the pre-war levels. 

 

Meanwhile, the rupee came under further pressure as banks rushed to purchase the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, fearing further depreciation, dealers said. "The overall sentiment in the market was negative, with elevated crude oil prices, so the importers were buying in panic mode," the dealer said. The rupee plunged by nearly 25 paise during the day due to aggressive bidding by importers.

 

However, the losses for the Indian unit were limited as the RBI stepped in with dollar sales through public-sector banks. "The RBI was there at multiple levels, but their dollar sales were not very aggressive. It was like they didn't want to sell dollars and let the market forces define the rupee," a dealer at a private sector bank said.
 

The rupee received some support in early trade as banks likely sold dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. The dollar inflows gathered pace after the RBI and the government announced a slew of measures to attract foreign inflows. Foreign portfolio investors have made net investments of $3.09 billion so far in July, the highest foreign fund inflows since the war began. Most of these inflows have gone into domestic equities. On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.8% and 0.9% lower, respectively.

 

The dollar index remained firm above 101, putting further pressure on the rupee. The market remained cautious ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeting. Investors had scaled back expectations of a Fed rate hike at the July meeting, but continued to assess the escalation in the US-Iran war, which could shape the central bank's monetary policy decisions. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 101.16, compared with 101.19 on Tuesday.  

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.5650	96.3425	96.2500	96.5800	96.2350
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	284.83	282.83	285.03	282.83	280.33

 

FORWARDS 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across tenures as the rupee's sharp fall prompted banks to buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who feared further depreciation of the rupee amid escalating hostilities between the US and Iran, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee premium hit a one-month high of 2.94% or 285.03 paise during the day. 

 

A rise in US Treasury yields put pressure on forward premiums. At 1530 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.63%, broadly steady against Tuesday. The 10-year US Treasury hit a two-month high of 4.65% during the day as a surge in crude oil prices stoked concern that inflationary pressures will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.93%, higher than Tuesday's close of 2.91%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 284.83 paise, against 280.33 paise Tuesday.  

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movements in crude oil prices amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. Most dealers expect the Indian unit to remain under pressure until Brent crude prices stay over $90 per barrel. "We will soon touch 97 (a dollar) also, if crude keeps rising like this," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The Indian currency will also continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said. Traders remain cautious ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee, which is expected to provide clearer direction for the dollar index.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid looming uncertainties related to the war in West Asia, exerting pressure on the Indian unit. However, market participants expect the RBI to step in through dollar sales if the Indian unit comes under pressure, as has been the case recently. Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. 

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.60 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 96.30-96.70 against the dollar Thursday.

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 India Rupee - World FX: Dlr steady as mkt remains cautious ahead of Fed meet

 

	AT 1415 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3378	1.3395	1.3370	1.3376
EUR/USD	1.1410	1.1419	1.1398	1.1400
NZD/USD	0.5818	0.5833	0.5813	0.5826
AUD/USD	0.6997	0.7012	0.6990	0.6998
USD/JPY	163.0150	163.2240	162.6720	163.1630
USD/CAD	1.4093	1.4112	1.4083	1.4108
EUR/JPY	186.0070	186.1953	185.7310	185.9900
CHF/USD	1.2318	1.2325	1.2294	1.2297
EUR/CHF	0.9263	0.9275	0.9261	0.9264

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index remained firm above 101 as the market remains cautious ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeting, due Monday. Investors had scaled back expectations of the Fed's rate hike at the July meeting, but traders continue to assess escalation in the US-Iran war, which could shape monetary policy decisions. At 1400 IST, the dollar index was at 101.16, against 101.19 Tuesday. 

 

A sharp rise in crude oil prices also weighed heavily on major currencies. At 1400 IST, Brent crude oil for September delivery was at $93.93 a barrel, up from $91.01 Tuesday. Brent crude rose to a six-week high as the US and Iran refrained from returning to the table for negotiations and intensified attacks. 

 

The euro fell marginally to $1.141 Wednesday. The pound sterling also fell 0.2% to $1.338 Wednesday as the UK's headline annual inflation eased in June, but core annual inflation came in higher than estimated. The core consumer price index rose 2.6% year-on-year in June, surpassing the consensus estimate of a 2.5% rise. 

 

The Japanese yen extended losses for the fourth consecutive day Wednesday after it fell past 163 for the first time since 1986. The Canadian dollar was down sharply by 0.3% to $1.34 a dollar. The Swedish Krona and Swiss franc fell 0.2?ch on Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India rupee: Weakens on surge in dollar demand from oil companies

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.5375	96.3425	96.2600	96.5500	96.2350

 

MUMBAI – The rupee continued to weaken against the dollar as a surge in crude oil prices prompted dollar-buying by importers. "Oilers (oil marketing companies) are very active in the market," a dealer from a foreign bank said. The rupee was supported as nationalised banks sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India. However, the intervention "was not very aggressive," dealers noted. 

 

The rupee got some relief early Wednesday due to inflows from foreign portfolio investors and nationalised banks. However, the inflows from foreign currency non-resident deposits were low, a dealer from a foreign bank said. Support for the Indian currency was quickly offset as demand from oil importers surged on fear of oil prices rising further. 

 

Crude oil prices surged to $94.03 per barrel from $91.01 Tuesday as the conflict between Iran and the US intensified with no signs of de-escalation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio Wednesday said the US was still willing to negotiate an end to the Iran crisis, but Iran was not serious about talks, as the intensifying conflict disrupted energy supplies from the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia. In the Strait of Hormuz, only three commodity vessels were observed transiting on Tuesday, Kpler data showed. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.25 and 96.60 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.55 a dollar. (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Premiums up; importers buy forward dollars as crude spikes

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.5225	96.3425	96.2600	96.5350	96.2350
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	284.33	282.83	284.73	282.83	280.33

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across tenures as the rupee's sharp fall prompted banks to buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear further depreciation of the rupee amid escalating hostilities between the US and Iran, dealers said. "Heavy bids had to come today as crude oil crossed $90 (a barrel) and there is no sign of any sides backing out now," a dealer at a foreign bank said. The one-year dollar-rupee premium hit a one-month high of 2.94% or 284.73 paise during the day. 

 

The Indian unit was under pressure, falling 1.9% against the dollar so far this month, due to a jump in crude oil prices, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India has been actively selling dollars in the spot market, preventing further losses for the local unit, they said. 

 

A rise in US Treasury yields also put pressure on forward premiums. At 1330 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.64%, against 4.63% Tuesday. The 10-year US Treasury hit a two-month high of 4.65% during the day as a surge in crude oil prices stoked concern that inflationary pressures will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee will hold its next policy meeting on Monday. 

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.93%, higher than Tuesday's close of 2.91%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 284.33 paise, against 280.33 paise Tuesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Slumps as crude oil above $92/bbl; RBI's dlr sales limit fall

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.5000	96.3425	96.2600	96.5325	96.2350

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar as banks bought dollars actively for importers, who feared that the rise in crude oil prices could weaken the Indian unit further, dealers said. "Importers were buying aggressively today. Oil prices shot up after the US and Iran shunned negotiations and intensified attacks. Importers were bidding on every dips (of dollar-rupee) fearing that crude may rise again," a dealer at a private sector bank said.    

 

However, the fall of the rupee was limited as state-owned banks sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India at 96.50 per dollar, they said. However, the intervention was not very aggressive in nature. "They have tried to protect 96.50 levels, but the bidding is very heavy. If rupee breaches 96.50 (a dollar), the next level to look at is 96.65," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The rupee was under pressure as crude oil prices crossed $92 a barrel for the first time in six weeks as the US and Iran refrained from returning to the table for negotiations and intensified attacks. The Iran-backed Houthi group threatened to block US ally Saudi Arabia's shipping through the Red Sea, which will likely impact global oil supplies that have already been disrupted by the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. At 1230 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $92.14 a barrel, up from $91.01 Tuesday. Brent crude oil prices rose over 31% from July's low of $70.14 a barrel.

 

Many dealers expect the rupee to get some relief from the foreign fund inflows into equities, which alone strengthened the rupee by over 20 paise Tuesday. The dollar inflows started coming in after the RBI and the government announced a slew of measures to make Indian markets more attractive. Foreign portfolio investors have net invested $3.09 billion so far in July, the highest foreign fund inflows since the war started. Of this, most of the investments were in domestic equities. 

 

A sharp fall in domestic equities also weighed on the rupee. At 1230 IST, Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.9% and 1%, respectively. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.25 and 96.60 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.55 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India rupee: Falls sharply as oil surges amid escalation in W Asia tensions

 

	AT 1207 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.4800	96.3425	96.2600	96.4950	96.2350

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply Wednesday as oil importers bought dollars amid a surge in oil prices due to continued escalation in the conflict in West Asia. At 1137 IST, the rupee traded at 96.48 per dollar, down 0.25% from 96.24 Tuesday.

 

The intensified geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices and energy supply disruptions have weighed the rupee down. Dealers noted that the rise in oil prices boosted the demand for dollars from importers in the market, further adding pressure on the rupee. However, the rupee was supported as nationalised banks sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India Wednesday. 

 

The Indian currency rose Tuesday as foreign investors sold dollars through foreign banks. However, crude oil prices extended their gains and more oil importers bought dollars. "Buying is there as oil prices are high today," a dealer from brokerage firm said. 

 

Crude oil prices rose to the highest level in six weeks Wednesday as fears of further energy supply disruptions intensified due to continued retaliatory attacks between the US and Iran and the threat of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Houthis. At 1038, Brent crude oil for September delivery rose 1.3% to $92.27 per barrel from $91.01 Tuesday. 

 

Two oil tankers carrying crude oil from Saudi Arabia bound for China and India reversed course in the Red Sea and headed toward the Suez Tuesday after threats from the Iran-aligned Houthis, Reuters reported Wednesday. US forces launched attacks on targets in the south and west of Iran overnight and Iran targeted US military facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. 

 

The dollar index remained steady Wednesday as investors shifted to the safe-haven greenback amid rising tensions in West Asia, which weighed on the Indian unit. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.25 and 96.55 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.50 a dollar. (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 22

 

MUMBAI – At 1110 IST, the rupee was at 96.4500 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 96.3425 a dollar, against the previous close of 96.2350. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.60	96.50	96.25	96.15
Private-sector bank	96.60	96.50	96.20	96.10
Private-sector bank	96.70	96.60	96.25	96.15
Foreign bank	96.75	96.65	96.35	96.25
Brokerage firm	96.65	96.55	96.25	96.15
Brokerage firm	96.70	96.50	96.30	96.10

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Down slightly as crude crosses $92/bbl, FX inflows limit fall

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.3200	96.3425	96.2600	96.3550	96.2350

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly in early trade on Wednesday as crude oil prices crossed $92 a barrel for the first time in six weeks after the US intensified its attack on Iran. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were at $92.14 a barrel, up from $91.01 Tuesday.

 

The Iran-backed Houthi group threatened to block US ally Saudi Arabia's shipping through the Red Sea, which will further impact global oil supplies that have already been disrupted by the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said he was not interested in resuming negotiations with Iran. Brent crude oil prices rose 4.5% this week and over 31% from July's low of $70.14 a barrel.

 

Banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows, which helped limit the fall of the Indian unit, dealers said. "Yesterday, FIIs were also on the buy side in equity. Today, also inflows are there. I think inflows and FII will play a crucial role in the rupee movement," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

Dealers said banks also bought dollars on behalf of importers, amid uncertainty about the war in West Asia, which put further pressure on the Indian unit. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.20 and 96.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.35 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 22

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.65	96.30
Public-sector bank	96.55	96.15
Private-sector bank	96.50	96.20
Private-sector bank	96.60	96.20
Foreign bank	96.60	96.20
Brokerage firm	96.65	96.20
Brokerage firm	96.65	96.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall on surge in oil prices as war escalates

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell as continued escalation in the West Asia war pushed oil prices to their highest levels in six weeks and as dollar index stayed above 100. Crude oil prices rose over 1% Wednesday to the highest levels since Jun. 11 on fears of worsening energy supply disruptions due to more retaliatory attacks between the US and Iran and the threat of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Houthis. 

 

The dollar index remained steady Wednesday as investors shifted to the safe-haven greenback amid rising tensions in West Asia. However, the greenback was weighed down as investors scaled back expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve at the July meeting, which is due next week. 

 

The Japanese yen crossed the 163 mark for the first time since December 1986 and continued to weaken against the dollar. The finance ministry reported Wednesday that the country's trade deficit widened in June as a weaker yen and higher oil prices inflated the cost of imports.

 

Japan's trade deficit expanded to 406.9 billion yen on an unadjusted basis from a revised 391.8 billion yen in May, the ministry said. It missed the Street's estimate of 120 billion yen deficit by a wide margin. The value of imports rose 25.4% in June from a year ago, while the value of exports rose 19.3%.

 

The South Korean won rose slightly to 1,479.4 per dollar Wednesday from 1,480.1 Tuesday as the won's trading volume rose since 24-hour trading began two weeks ago, driven by foreigners offloading shares of local chipmakers. The won's trading volume rose to an average of about $18.6 billion in spot trading, according to a Bloomberg report. 

 

The Philippine peso declined to its lowest levels since late April as a surge in crude oil prices and the risk of El Nio on agricultural production weighed the currency down. The country relies heavily on imports for its oil requirements and the surge in oil prices has threatened to widen its current account deficit. The peso traded slightly lower at 61.74 per dollar Wednesday, against 61.70 Tuesday. 

 

The Thai baht fell 0.2% to 33.75 per dollar Wednesday from 32.33 Tuesday as intensified geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and strength in the dollar weighed down the currency. 

 

The Chinese yuan fell to its lowest level this week and traded at 6.77 per dollar Wednesday, down 0.18% from 6.76 Tuesday. (Janaki Venugopalan)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 96.5650

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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