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Informist, Thursday, Jul. 23, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee reversed its rise and closed steady against the dollar Thursday as banks bought the greenback for importers with Brent crude oil going past $98 a barrel for the first time since Jun. 3, dealers said. However, mild intervention by the Reserve Bank of India made sure the rupee did not fall, they said.

 

"The RBI ensured that the rupee moved sideways. It's like they want to just pass the day without much volatility. But the buying demand was so high that they couldn't keep the rupee (USD/INR) below 96.50," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

The rupee moved in a narrow range of 12 paise throughout the day and settled at 96.5725 a dollar, nearly unchanged from 96.5650 per dollar Wednesday. Other Asian currencies were also broadly steady. Bucking the trend, South Korean won rose sharply by 0.5% from its previous close.

 

The rupee began the day on a slightly positive note as the RBI sold dollars to prevent a sharp depreciation amid rising hostilities in West Asia. The RBI sold dollars around the 96.50 and 96.55 per-dollar levels throughout the day, dealers said. "The objective of the RBI's dollar sales was just to protect 96.60 (a dollar) level," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. "Now they will not come in aggressively as global factors are on the negative side. Even if they intervene heavily, the rupee will depreciate because crude crossed 98 ($/barrel)."

 

The underlying sentiment of the rupee remained weak as the price of crude oil spiked after Iranian-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi Arabian ships in the Red Sea and Iran hit one ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump warned that US forces would bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant every time Iran hit a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose to $98.66 a barrel, up from $94.07 Wednesday. Brent crude oil price has risen $10 a barrel this week and over 35% from the pre-war levels.

 

The rupee has depreciated 2% this month to be the worst-performing currency in Asia as a spike in crude oil offset the gains in June from the slew of measures announced by  the RBI and the government to attract foreign inflows.

 

Banks bought dollars actively for importers, especially oil marketing companies, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices, which put pressure on the Indian currency. Dealers said importers were buying on every dip in the dollar-rupee level. They see this continuing as long as crude oil prices remain high.

 

The dollar index also firmed up, putting further pressure on the rupee. At 1530 IST, the index was 101.16, from 101.14 Wednesday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.5725	96.4900	96.4500	96.5750	96.5650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	286.00	284.50	286.50	284.50	284.83

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures Thursday as the sharp rise in crude oil prices prompted banks to purchase dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear a further weakening of the domestic currency, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to its highest level since Jun. 2 at 2.96% or 286 paise.

 

However, a rise in US Treasury yields weighed on the forward premiums, as per some dealers. US Treasury yields rose as the attacks by the US and Iran intensified, with both sides showing no sign of backing down. At 1530 IST, the 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.68% from 4.66% Wednesday.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.96%, up from 2.93% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 286.00 paise, up from 284.83 paise at close Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

Friday, the rupee will continue to take cues from the developments in West Asia, which are currently driving crude oil prices. A sharp rise in Brent crude to $98 per barrel has increased concern about India's import bill and inflation outlook.

 

The domestic currency will also continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index, dealers said. Traders remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeeting next week, which is expected to provide clearer direction for the dollar index. Markets also expect strong intervention by the Japanese central bank after the yen fell to a 40-year low this week. Any action by the Bank of Japan could change the direction of the dollar index.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid the uncertainty stemming from the war in West Asia, exerting pressure on the Indian currency. However, market participants expect the RBI to step in through dollar sales, as it has been doing. Some dealers expect the RBI's intervention to be mild, but others said the central bank could come in heavily Friday to push the rupee higher to create a buffer against volatility over the weekend.

 

Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.70 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 96.35-96.75 against the dollar Friday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar steady; eyes on Fed meet, West Asia war

 

	AT 1400 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3363	1.3394	1.3361	1.3374
EUR/USD	1.1409	1.1436	1.1406	1.1407
NZD/USD	0.5794	0.5823	0.5794	0.5812
AUD/USD	0.6999	0.7021	0.6987	0.6990
USD/JPY	163.4190	163.4260	163.0010	163.1180
USD/CAD	1.4076	1.4090	1.4057	1.4080
EUR/JPY	186.4410	186.6650	186.0400	186.0200
CHF/USD	1.2266	1.2301	1.2260	1.2275
EUR/CHF	0.9301	0.9316	0.9291	0.9291

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index was steady near 101.00 in the early European trade on Thursday. However, a slight reversal from July's high of 101.59 might be limited due to a flare-up between the US and Iran. At 1400 IST, the index was 101.19 from 101.14 Wednesday. Traders also remained cautious ahead of Monday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which is expected to provide clearer direction for the dollar index.

 

Iran Wednesday hit a ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian-backed Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia's oil tankers in the Red Sea. US President Donald Trump warned that US forces would bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant every time Iran hit a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices extended gains for the fifth consecutive day, with Brent crude for September delivery rising over 2% to hit $96 a barrel, the highest level since Jun. 8.

 

The euro rose slightly to $1.142 Thursday ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision, due later in the day. The ECB is largely expected to keep rates on hold, but markets are pricing in chances of a 25 basis-point rate hike in September. Investors will keep a watch on the ECB's comments on the renewed rise in oil prices on the escalation in the US-Iran war.

 

The pound sterling also rose marginally at $1.338 Thursday. The Japanese yen was steady against the dollar at 163.03 a greenback Thursday after falling for four consecutive days. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara and Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama warned that authorities are ready to take action in the currency market if necessary after the yen hit the lowest levels since December 1986 Wednesday. 

 

The Australian dollar was broadly steady at 1.428 a dollar Thursday as the country's unemployment rate stayed at 4.4% in June, flat against the previous month and in line with market estimates. Swedish krona rose 0.4% from the previous close and Swiss franc was steady Thursday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums up as importers buy fwd dlr amid jump in crude oil

 

	AT 1235 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.5350	96.4900	96.4500	96.5525	96.5650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	286.00	284.50	286.00	284.50	284.83

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures Thursday as the sharp rise in crude oil prices prompted banks to purchase dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear further weakness of the Indian unit, dealers said. The Indian unit has fallen almost 2% against the dollar so far this month and hit a two-month low of 96.5400 a dollar at 1315 IST as Brent crude oil prices surged above $95 per barrel amid escalating hostilities between the US and Iran.

 

The central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market Thursday, which kept the rupee from falling, dealers said. However, the RBI most likely did not conduct buy-sell swaps to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, they said. "The RBI is making sure the rupee is moving sideways. But its intervention is very mild, just giving liquidity in the market, but they are not doing any buy-sell swap so far in forwards," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

However, a rise in US Treasury yields weighed on the forward premiums, as per some dealers. US Treasury yields rose on Wednesday as the strikes between the US and Iran intensified, with the two sides showing no signs of backing out. At 1339 IST, the 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.67% from 4.66% Wednesday.    

 

At 1300 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.96%, up from 2.93% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 286.00 paise, higher than 284.83 paise at close Wednesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Erases most gains on importers' demand; RBI's dlr sales support

 

	AT 1200 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.5400	96.4900	96.4500	96.5525	96.5650

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most gains against the dollar as banks bought the greenback actively for importers, especially oil marketing companies, dealers said. Oil importers were actively bidding in the market as crude oil prices spiked after the US and Iran continued with intensive attacks for the 12th consecutive night, they added.  

 

However, dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India through public sector banks made sure the Indian unit did not fall, even as the intervention was not very aggressive in nature. Dealers expect the rupee to trade in a narrow band as the central bank may counter dollar demand throughout the day. "The RBI is selling now, but buying pressure is too much that they are struggling to keep the rupee below 96.50 (a dollar)," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The local unit's underlying sentiment remained weak as crude oil prices hit $96 a barrel after Iran hit a ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi Arabia ships in the Red Sea. US President Donald Trump warned that the US forces would bomb an Iranian bridge or power plant every time Iran hit a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. At 1200 IST, Brent crude oil futures for September delivery rose to $96.06 a barrel, up from $94.07 Wednesday. Brent crude oil prices were at the highest level since Jun. 8 and have risen nearly 30% since the war started.

 

The dollar index retreated slightly, but remained above 101 as the market was cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on Monday, which could provide the next major directional trigger for the rupee. At 1200 IST, the dollar index was 101.00, down from 101.14 Wednesday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.35 and 96.65 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.60 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Steady on RBI intervention; importers' dollar purchase weighs

 

	AT 1225 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.5375	96.4900	96.5525	96.4500	96.5650

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady at 96.54 against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars through public sector banks Thursday to prevent the Indian currency from depreciating further due to rising oil prices, according to dealers. "There is heavy intervention at 96.53 to 96.55 levels," a dealer said. Some inflows from foreign banks also supported the Indian currency.

 

Rising oil prices due to continued escalation in the West Asia war have weighed down the rupee to its lowest levels in more than two months, as it has prompted increased dollar buying by importers. Dealers noted that there were dollar bids from oil importers Thursday, but at lower levels. "No panic buying as such is seen," a dealer from a brokerage firm said.

 

Crude oil prices rose for the fifth consecutive day and breached the $96-per-barrel mark Thursday as attacks by the US and Iran on each other continued, with no signs of negotiations. The Iran-aligned Houthis from Yemen said Thursday that they have struck two oil tankers from Saudi Arabia as part of a naval blockade. The US launched attacks on Iran for the 12th consecutive night as US President Donald Trump said the US would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant every time Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. At 1142 IST, Brent Crude oil for September delivery was at $96.1 per barrel, up 2% from $94.07 on Wednesday.  (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Up as dealers speculate dlr sales for RBI; jump in crude weighs

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.4775	96.4900	96.4600	96.5100	96.5650

 

MUMBAI – The rupee inched up against the dollar in early trade Thursday as dealers speculated that public sector banks sold dollars, likely for the Reserve Bank of India. "The rupee is just around 5 paise upside. PSUs are selling now, but it is difficult to predict if it's for the RBI, because there is only slight movement," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

However, the underlying sentiment for the rupee stayed weak as crude oil prices jumped after the US and Iran intensified attacks, with both sides refusing to return to the negotiating table. Oil prices extended gains for the fifth consecutive day, with Brent crude for September delivery rising over 2% to $96 a barrel, the highest level since Jun. 8. Brent crude gained about $10 a barrel over the past week after a series of sharp increases. The cost of Brent crude is up 30% since the start of the war. 

 

"Now, it all depends on RBI's resolve to defend the rupee along with the movement in crude oil prices. But if crude sustains over 100 then it will be difficult for the RBI to defend 97 (a dollar)," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. 

 

Dealers expect banks to actively buy dollars on behalf of importers during the day, amid uncertainty over the war in West Asia, which will weigh on the Indian unit. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.30 and 96.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 96.40 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 23

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.82	96.42
Private-sector bank	96.75	96.45
Private-sector bank	96.70	96.40
Private-sector bank	96.75	96.45
Foreign bank	96.80	96.40
Brokerage firm	96.80	96.30
Brokerage firm	96.73	96.23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; oil prices at $96/bbl a drag

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note early Thursday. A jump in crude oil prices due to continued escalation in the West Asia war weighed on currencies. Crude oil prices rose to $96.02 per barrel Thursday, hitting the highest level in more than six weeks as the US carried out attacks on Iran for the 12th consecutive night and Yemen's Houthis targeted oil tankers in the Red Sea.

 

The Japanese yen was steady against the dollar Thursday after falling for four consecutive days. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara and Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama warned that authorities are ready to take action in the currency market if necessary after the yen hit the lowest levels since December 1986 Wednesday. "Our policy remains completely unchanged: We will take appropriate and bold action at any time, should the need arise," Satsuki Katayama told media Wednesday. The yen traded flat at 163.1 per dollar.

 

The investors weighed the odds of faster rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan is reported to be open to raising interest rates at a faster pace than market expectations as the yen's continued weakness would add to a higher inflation risk, according to media reports. The central bank is largely expected to hold the interest rate steady at its July policy meeting and hike rates in December. 

 

The South Korean won rose 0.63% to 1,467.28 per dollar Thursday from 1,476.52 Wednesday as South Korea's GDP rose 0.6% in the April-June period from the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, driven by a boom in semiconductor exports. The Taiwan dollar also led the gains among Asian currencies, rising 0.29% to 32.29 per dollar Thursday from 32.38 Wednesday as selling pressure from foreign investors eased.

 

The Philippine peso remained at its lowest level since Jun. 5 for the third consecutive day. The peso traded at 61.74 per dollar. The country's heavy reliance on oil imports pulled down the peso as oil prices continued to surge. The currency was further weighed down as the country reported a $2 billion deficit in March from a surplus of $3.1 billion in February due to rising oil prices and the risk of El Nino on its agricultural production. 

 

The Thai Baht steadied at 33.74 per dollar Thursday as intensified geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and strength in the dollar weighed down the currency. The Chinese yuan fell slightly to 6.77 Thursday against the dollar.  (Janaki Venugopalan)  End

 

US$1 = INR 96.5725

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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