India Rupee Review
Tad up on fall in crude as US-Iran war pause holds
This story was originally published at 18:30 IST on 28 July 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Tuesday, Jul. 28, 2026
By Divya Moolayattil
MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly and remained at a two-week high against the dollar as crude oil prices continued to fall for the third day after the US and Iran kept their truce for a second day, dealers said. The Reserve Bank of India's mild intervention and foreign fund inflows also supported the Indian currency.
"Market was cautious about US and Iran stand-off, but that sustained Tuesday as well, bringing in more confidence among investors. We saw rupee moved exactly when oil fell to $85 a barrel," a dealer at a public-sector bank said.
The rupee settled at 95.8525 a dollar Tuesday, up nearly 0.1% from Monday's close. The rupee moved in a narrow range of 22 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies traded on a mixed note against the dollar, with the South Korean won emerging as the best performer while the Indonesian rupiah was the worst.
The rupee opened 15 paise higher as crude oil eased in early trade, falling further from a two-month-high hit last week after the US and Iran halted strikes to pave the way for further negotiations. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for September delivery was at $85.88 a barrel, down from $88.36 Monday and $96.78 Friday.
US President Donald Trump late Monday said there was "a good chance" a new round of diplomacy with Iran could yield a breakthrough but warned he would quickly resume air strikes paused over the weekend if that did not happen. Meanwhile, Oman presented a proposal to Iran for joint management of the Strait of Hormuz with "voluntary fees" that would ensure Tehran does not exercise sole control over the vital waterway.
Dealers said banks sold dollars for the RBI at multiple levels in early trade and the Indian currency soon hit a high of 95.6350 a dollar. "We could see some selling of nationalised banks, but later there were genuine flows, mostly from foreign banks," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.
The rupee was also supported by banks' dollar sales linked to foreign fund inflows, likely for a slew of initial public offerings that are lined up for the week. Among the major firms whose public issues open this week are Manipal Health Enterprises, Juniper Green Energy, and MV Electrosystems, which together plan to raise more than INR 113.3 billion.
The market also remained positive as RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra Monday said recent measures to attract foreign capital had garnered strong response from investors with banks mobilising nearly $32 billion, largely through foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits, while government securities have attracted more than $7 billion in foreign inflows. This is a sharp rise from $20.72 billion gathered as on Jul. 18.
Meanwhile, banks also bought dollars for importers, who noted a lower dollar-rupee level, which weighed on the Indian currency. The rupee reversed slightly from a high of 95.6350 due to importers' buying pressure but dealers said the bidding was not very aggressive. "Importers accumulated dollars in panic when oil rose above $100 (a barrel) during last week's escalation. So now, the bidding has reduced," a dealer at a foreign bank said.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 95.8525 | 95.7600 | 95.6350 | 95.8600 | 95.9100 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 269.14 | 267.95 |
270.05 |
265.77 | 269.23 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was broadly steady as banks sold forward dollars for foreign portfolio investors and likely for the RBI. The dollar sales were offset by banks' dollars purchases for oil importers. The RBI sold forward dollars to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said.
Banks also sold forward dollars for foreign portfolio investors, likely due to the slew of initial public offerings lined up in the week and for investment in Indian government bonds, which also weighed on forward premiums, they said.
The fall in forward premiums was limited as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the lower dollar-rupee forward premiums, dealers said. However, they also said there wasn't much volume in the market Tuesday.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.81%, unchanged from Monday's close of 2.81%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 269.14 paise, down marginally from 269.23 paise Monday.
OUTLOOK
Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from the movement in crude oil prices amid developments in the war in West Asia. Brent crude oil price retreated from the high of $100 a barrel hit last week, which improved sentiment for the domestic currency by reducing concern over India's import bill and inflation outlook.
The domestic currency will also continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index, dealers said. Traders remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, which is expected to provide a clearer direction for the dollar index. The FOMC is expected to hold rates at this meeting.
Traders will also keep a close watch on the RBI's intervention strategy, which will decide the direction of the local unit. Market participants expect the RBI to step in with dollar sales if the rupee comes under extreme pressure, something the central bank has already been doing. Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid the uncertainty stemming from the war in West Asia, exerting pressure on the Indian currency.
Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. Dealers see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 95.50 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.50–96.00 against the dollar Wednesday.
India Rupee - World FX: Dollar steadies; market awaits Fed's policy meeting
| AT 1326 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3295 | 1.3305 | 1.3286 | 1.3293 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1366 | 1.1381 | 1.1362 | 1.1373 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5772 | 0.5778 | 0.5762 | 0.5763 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6969 | 0.6996 | 0.6963 | 0.6990 |
| USD/JPY | 163.7790 | 163.8400 | 163.6720 | 163.7310 |
| USD/CAD | 1.4117 | 1.4129 | 1.4111 | 1.4122 |
| EUR/JPY | 186.1640 | 186.3100 | 186.0490 | 186.1900 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2198 | 1.2220 | 1.2195 | 1.2207 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9318 | 0.9321 | 0.9310 | 0.9314 |
| Dollar Index | 101.5260 | 101.5730 | 101.4340 | 101.5130 |
MUMBAI – The dollar index held firm at 101.51 Tuesday ahead of the US Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting, which begins later Tuesday. The index hovered near a one-month high but was weighed down by easing demand for the safe-haven currency amid renewed hopes of negotiations between the US and Iran and expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the near term. According to the CME FedWatch tool, about 66% of investors expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged, while nearly 34% expect at least a 25-basis-point rate hike. However, markets are pricing in an 81% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting.
The euro remained steady against the dollar ahead of flash second-quarter GDP, July economic sentiment and consumer confidence, flash inflation, and June unemployment data, which would help investors gauge the inflation risks amid the war in West Asia. ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimi said Monday that the central bank will have to raise interest rates at least one more time as part of its measured adjustment to inflation risks. The Swiss franc and Swedish krona rose slightly.
The British pound rose slightly against the dollar ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. Investors widely expect the central bank to hold the interest rate at 3.75%. The currency was supported as oil prices fell below $90 per barrel, easing inflation pressure.
The Japanese yen rose slightly but remained near a 40-year low ahead of the Bank of Japan's two-day monetary policy meeting, starting Thursday. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged while maintaining a cautious stance on inflation. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's fiscal plan to cut the country's sales tax on food risks soured investor sentiment and weighed the yen and government bonds down.
The Australian dollar fell 0.3% as Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock warned that underlying inflation remained too high and a further slowdown in domestic demand may be required to tame prices. The RBA governor also noted that the key uncertainty was whether the three rate hikes already delivered this year were enough to return inflation to its 2%-3% target band. The Canadian dollar rose 0.1%. (Janaki Venugopalan)
India Rupee: 1-year premium down at 3-week low as banks sell fwd dollars
| AT 1340 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 95.8250 | 95.7600 | 95.6350 | 95.8425 | 95.9100 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 268.14 | 267.95 | 269.73 | 265.77 | 269.23 |
MUMBAI – The one-year dollar rupee forward premium fell for the third consecutive day to a three-week low as banks sold forward dollars for foreign portfolio investors and likely for the Reserve Bank of India. The RBI sold forward dollars to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said.
Dealers said public-sector banks sold greenbacks for the RBI in early trade, which helped the rupee appreciate further. However, the intervention was very mild in nature. The RBI had stepped in aggressively in the market on Monday, selling over $2 billion, which led to a sharp rise of the Indian unit.
Banks also sold forward dollars for foreign portfolio investors likely for a slew of initial public offerings lined up for this week, they said. "FPIs are in the forward market to hedge their position. They will exit the market someday, right..so they are mitigating currency risk," a dealer at a foreign bank said.
However, dealers also said there wasn't much volume in the market Tuesday. "Most of the intervention happened yesterday, and we could see the impact of it in the forwards market. Today there are very few deals happening, there isn't much volume," the dealer said.
The fall in forward premiums was limited as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting a lower-dollar rupee forward premiums, said dealers.
At 1340 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80%, lower than Monday's close of 2.81%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 268.14 paise, against 269.23 paise Monday. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Erases some gains on importer dollar demand; FX inflows support
| AT 1203 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 95.79750 | 95.7600 | 95.62500 | 95.84250 | 95.91000 |
MUMBAI – The rupee erased some gains during the day as banks bought dollars actively for importers, especially oil marketing companies, dealers said. However, foreign investors' dollar sales through banks helped counter importers' buying pressure, which kept the rupee range bound.
The Indian currency was further supported as traders were seen placing short dollar bets as they expect the rupee to rise further.
Banks also bought dollars for oil importers, which weighed on the Indian unit. "There is not much happening in the fixing market, only quarter and par-quarter bets," a dealer from a foreign bank said.
The market sentiment for the rupee has improved due to strong intervention from the RBI and optimism surrounding inflows from foreign currency non-resident deposits. "Flows through the FCNR deposits are coming in, which has supported the rupee. FCNR(B) deposits and other dollar inflows altogether, there is roughly $32 billion coming in," a dealer from a foreign bank said.
The rupee appreciated 0.7% Monday following "aggressive" intervention from the Reserve Bank of India to support the local currency due to uncertainties surrounding the West Asia war.
The dealers also speculated that the central bank could have sold more than $2 billion dollars in the spot market through nationalised banks Monday. "RBI yesterday sold around one-and-a-half to two billion (dollars) through nationalised banks, but it could be more, as there was around $2.012 billion earlier in the day," a dealer from foreign bank said. The RBI has been seen heavily participating in the dollar sale through public sector banks over the last week as oil prices breached $100 per barrel due to over two weeks of retaliatory attacks between the US and Iran.
Crude oil prices fell below $90 per barrel level Tuesday on renewed hopes of diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the US, easing pressure on the Indian currency. At 1108 IST, Brent crude oil for September delivery was $87.18 a barrel, down from $88.36 Monday.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.50 and 95.90 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.50 a dollar. (Janaki Venugopalan)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most steady as crude falls; Taiwan dollar down most
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies remained steady as oil prices continued to fall for the third consecutive day on renewed hopes of peace negotiations between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump said Monday that the US was having "good talks" with Iran and that there was a chance of a peace deal. However, he warned that US attacks would resume if the negotiations failed to deliver. Brent crude oil was down nearly 2% at $86.63 per barrel at 0830 IST. Brent crude oil hit $101 a barrel last week after the US and Iran extended the war in the Red Sea.
The Japanese yen remained flat and above a 40-year low at 163.75 against the dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan's two-day monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled to start Thursday. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged while maintaining a cautious stance on inflation. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's fiscal plan to cut the country's sales tax on food risks soured investor sentiment and weighed the yen and government bonds down.
The South Korean won remained steady Tuesday at 1,464.80 against the US dollar following its previous decline Monday due to heavy foreign selling of local stocks. The Philippine peso remained steady at 61.63 per dollar.
The Malaysian ringgit rose slightly for the second consecutive day at 4.08 a dollar ahead of the Negri Sembilan state election in the country. The Singapore dollar held steady at 1.292 per dollar Tuesday following the intervention by Singapore's central bank Monday. Singapore's central bank tightened monetary policy for a second straight meeting Monday as it expects the West Asia war to raise inflationary pressures for longer than expected.
The Taiwan dollar fell sharply by 0.4% to 32.41 against the dollar as trader sentiment went against the currency following the fall in local Taiwan stocks due to semiconductor stock sell-offs in Japan and South Korea. The Taiwan dollar was most hit among Asian peers in early trade Tuesday. The Chinese yuan fell 0.19% to 6.77 per dollar Tuesday from 6.75 Monday. (Janaki Venugopalan)
India Rupee: Up sharply on fall in crude as US-Iran war pause sustains
| AT 0930 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 95.6500 | 95.7600 | 95.6350 | 95.7625 | 95.9100 |
MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar in early trade as crude oil prices remained lower after it fell over 13% in just two days following the pause in the US-Iran war. At 0900 IST, Brent crude oil for September delivery was $86.89 a barrel, down from $88.36 Monday.
"The dollar-rupee saw a gap-down opening because of oil prices. They have come down sharply from last week's level. The market was slightly jittery yesterday about the US-Iran hold off, but it sustained, which gave the market confidence today," a dealer at a public sector bank.
Dealers expect banks to continue to buy dollars on behalf of importers at every dip in dollar-rupee levels, which will put pressure on the Indian unit during the day.
The market also remained positive as RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said Monday that recent measures to attract foreign capital had garnered a strong investor response, with banks mobilising nearly $32 billion, largely through Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits, while government securities have attracted more than $7 billion in foreign inflows. This is a sharp rise from $20.72 billion gathered as on Jul. 18.
Banks are also expected to sell dollars linked to foreign fund inflows amid a slew of initial public offerings lined up for this week. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.60 and 95.95 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.60 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 28
MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| Private-sector bank | 96.15 | 95.80 |
| Private-sector bank | 96.20 | 95.70 |
| Private-sector bank | 96.08 | 95.68 |
| Foreign bank | 96.10 | 95.70 |
| Foreign bank | 95.95 | 95.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 96.20 | 95.70 |
| Brokerage firm | 96.08 | 95.68 |
(Divya Moolayattil)
End
US$1 = INR 95.8525
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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