More Stories

Informist, Friday, Jul. 31, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose to a three-week high against the dollar Friday as weakness in the greenback kept market sentiment positive, dealers said. The Reserve Bank of India's dollar sales, coupled with foreign fund inflows and stable crude oil prices despite the escalation of tensions in West Asia, supported the rupee. However, dollar demand from importers capped the local currency's gains during the day.

 

"The sentiment for the rupee has turned bullish now, because of dollar inflows and RBI's continuous support. The fall in the dollar today added to the merry now," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

The rupee settled at 95.3800 a dollar Friday, 0.3% higher than its previous close. Most other Asian currencies rose 0.2-0.4%, with the Indonesian rupiah emerging as the best performer, followed by the Philippine peso. Bucking the trend, the South Korean won fell 1% Friday. The rupee appreciated over 1% this week even as the US and Iran resumed attacks, sending crude oil prices higher.

 

The rupee started the day on a positive note as the dollar index remained weak at a six-week low Friday. The greenback was under pressure as the US Federal Reserve's Chair Kevin Warsh provided very little guidance on the path forward to bring inflation down to its target, while keeping interest rates unchanged. The dollar index rose during the day. At 1530 IST, the index was at 100.19, up from 99.97 Thursday, but sharply down from 100.80 Wednesday.

 

The Indian unit also got support as banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of foreign portfolio investors. FPIs have net bought shares worth $500.68 million on Thursday. FPIs have invested $4.14 billion in the Indian market so far this month. "Sustained FII buying over the past few sessions continued to boost sentiment in the domestic financial markets, further underpinning the rupee. As a result, the rupee has appreciated by around 1.25% during the week, making it one of the stronger-performing Asian currencies," Jateen Trivedi, VP and research analyst - commodity and currency, LKP Securities said in a note. The Nifty 50 and the Sensex ended 0.3% and 0.2% higher, respectively, Friday.

 

Dollar inflows through Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits have given the RBI muscle to intervene in the market and decide the direction of the rupee, dealers said. They said that the RBI's mild dollar sales on Friday propped up the rupee, along with other supporting factors. 

 

Traders also refrained from taking speculative bets, aware that the RBI has received substantial inflows through FCNR(B) deposits, they said. As of Jul. 24, banks have mobilised nearly $32 billion from the measures announced by the RBI to attract foreign capital inflows, up from $20.72 billion raised as of Jul. 18. 

 

Dealers said importers have reduced their dollar purchases, anticipating further appreciation of the Indian rupee. Importers have cut down their buying as they expect the rupee to reach 95.00 by next week, if there's no major escalation in the war. 

 

Crude oil prices also remained steady despite an escalation in the war in West Asia, easing concerns over India's import bill and providing strong support to the domestic currency. Iran targeted US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain early Friday after US forces bombed a building on Iran's Qeshm Island. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $89.79 a barrel, up from $89.03 Thursday. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3800	95.3850	95.2675	95.4675	95.6800
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	276.09	273.00	277.83	272.21	274.67

 

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures Friday as banks purchased dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said. 

 

However, dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, which put downward pressure on forward premiums. Dealers said the RBI likely sold dollars for near-term forwards. The one-month and two-month dollar rupee premiums fell slightly, while forward premiums for the rest of tenures remained high. 

 

Banks also sold forward dollars linked to foreign fund inflows, which limited gains in forward premiums. "There has been a good amount of inflows for two days. So, they are hedging in futures," the dealer said.  

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.91%, up from 2.87% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 276.09 paise, up from 274.67 paise at close Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee is likely to track crude oil prices amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. Dealers said the rupee's rise will not sustain if tension escalates in West Asia. The domestic currency will also take cues from movement in the dollar index as investors await US economic data, which is due late Monday. 

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which will weigh on the rupee. However, they also expect the RBI to sell dollars to support Indian unit if it comes under pressure. Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. 

 

Dealers see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 95.20 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.20–95.50 against the dollar Monday.

---

 India Rupee - World FX: Dlr remains weak near 100; yen jumps on intervention

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3464	1.3471	1.3436	1.3459
EUR/USD	1.1520	1.1533	1.1505	1.1524
NZD/USD	0.5885	0.5889	0.5863	0.5870
AUD/USD	0.7042	0.7045	0.7020	0.7020
USD/JPY	158.9130	160.8760	158.5480	159.6370
USD/CAD	1.4006	1.4023	1.4003	1.4011
EUR/JPY	183.0710	185.1740	182.7220	183.9750
CHF/USD	1.2401	1.2425	1.2371	1.2401
EUR/CHF	0.9288	0.9304	0.9280	0.9285

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index went below 100 Friday, sliding for the fourth straight session. The dollar index hit a six-week low of 99.85 Thursday after the Japanese yen jumped 3% to a two-month high on likely intervention by the Bank of Japan. The dollar also weakened owing to lack of forward guidance from US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh on how the central bank will bring inflation to heel. At 1441 IST, the dollar index was at 99.92, up slightly from 99.968 Thursday but down sharply from 100.80 Wednesday. 

 

The euro fell slightly to $1.1514 but hovered near its highest level since June 16, supported by stronger-than-expected eurozone economic data. The bloc's economy expanded by 0.4% in the second quarter of the year, surpassing forecasts of 0.2% and marking its fastest growth since early 2025.

 

The pound sterling remained at $1.34 Friday, its highest level since Jul. 20, after the Bank of England voted 6-3 to keep the bank rate unchanged at 3.75% Thursday. The central bank said the impact of higher energy prices remains uncertain and warned that inflation is likely to rise later this year.

 

The BoJ kept interest rates steady Friday but warned for the first time that underlying inflation could exceed its target, signalling further rate hikes in the wake of the government's yen-buying intervention. The Japanese yen fell to 160.03 a dollar after it had jumped 3% to around 158 Thursday.

 

The Canadian dollar was marginally lower and the Swiss franc fell 0.3% against the greenback.  (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: 1-year premium at 1-week high as importers buy forward dollars

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4150	95.3850	95.2675	95.4300	95.6800
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	276.41	273.00	276.42	272.21	274.67

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures Friday as banks purchased dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said. "There is not much liquidity in the market, so even few transactions are moving the market now," a dealer at a foreign bank said. The one-year dollar rupee forward premium hit a one-week high of 2.90% or 276.41 paise. 

 

However, dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, which put pressure on forward premiums. Dealers said the RBI likely sold dollars for near-term forwards. The one-month and two-month dollar rupee premiums fell slightly, while forward premiums for the rest of tenures remained high. 

 

Banks also sold forward dollars linked to foreign fund inflows, which limited gains in forward premiums. "There has been a good amount of inflows for two days. So, they are hedging in futures," the dealer said.  

 

However, a fall in US Treasury yields supported the forward premiums, as per some dealers. US Treasury yields fell on Friday as crude oil prices remained lower despite escalations in West Asia. At 1358 IST, the 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.65% from 4.67% Thursday.    

 

At 1400 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.89%, up from 2.87% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 276.41 paise, higher than 274.67 paise at close Thursday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Remains at 3-week high on weak dollar, fall in crude oil price

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4150	95.3850	95.2675	95.4300	95.6800

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply and hit a three-week high as the dollar index remained weak at a six-week low Friday. The greenback was also under pressure as the US Federal Reserve's Chair provided very little guidance on the path forward to bring inflation down to its target, while keeping interest rates unchanged. 

 

The Indian unit got support as banks sold dollars, likely for foreign portfolio investors. FPIs bought $485.15 million of shares on Thursday. FPIs have invested $4.17 billion in the Indian market so far this month. "For two days there has been huge FII inflows. Around $1 billion was invested in equities," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Dealers speculate that mild RBI dollar sales have propped up the rupee, along with other supporting factors. They said the Reserve Bank of India has supported the rupee this week, with the Indian unit appreciating over 1% this week. 

 

Traders are currently refraining from making speculative bets, aware that the RBI has received substantial inflows through Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits, they said. As of Jul. 24, banks have mobilised nearly $32 billion from the measures announced by the RBI to attract foreign capital inflows, up from $20.72 billion raised as of Jul. 18. 

 

Many dealers said importers have reduced their dollar purchases, anticipating further appreciation of the Indian rupee. "There are only a few bids currently, so even a small transaction is moving the market," he said. However, a few other dealers said that importers are bidding actively, which weighed on the rupee and kept it range bound. 

 

Crude oil prices also edged lower despite an escalation in the war in West Asia, which kept market sentiment positive. Iran targeted US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain early Friday after US forces bombed a building on Iran's Qeshm Island. At 1300 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $88.24 a barrel, down from $89.03 Thursday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.30 and 95.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.30 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil) 

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 31

 

MUMBAI – At 1121 IST, the rupee was at 95.4075 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.3850 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.6800. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.55	95.45	95.25	95.15
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.50	95.20	95.05
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.50	95.30	95.20
Private-sector bank	95.65	95.55	95.25	95.15
Foreign bank	95.55	95.45	95.30	95.10
Brokerage firm	95.75	95.65	95.25	95.15

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Jumps on weak dlr, FX inflows; RBI's dlr sales speculated

 

	AT 0930  IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3725	95.3850	95.2675	95.3975	95.6800

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply in early trade as the dollar remained weak on Friday. The dollar index hit a six-week low of 99.85 Thursday after the Japanese yen jumped 3% to a two-month-high Thursday on likely intervention by the Bank of Japan. The dollar also weakened due to lack of comments from US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on how the central bank will bring inflation to target levels. At 0930 IST, the dollar index was at 100.17, slightly higher than 99.96 Thursday, but sharply down from 100.80 Wednesday. 

Dealers speculate banks sold dollars for the Reserve Bank of India, which supported the Indian unit. "RBI is there with the tide. But not much support is required considering there are some inflows in equities and pick up in FCNR deposits," a dealer at a public sector bank said. Banks also sold dollars linked to foreign fund inflows, supporting the rupee further. 

 

Crude oil prices also edged lower despite escalation in the war in West Asia, which kept market sentiment positive. Iran targeted US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain early Friday after US forces bombed a building on Iran's Qeshm Island. Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $87.67 a barrel, down from $89.03 Thursday. 

 

Banks bought dollars for importers actively amid month-end payment obligations, which put pressure on the Indian unit. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.20 and 95.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.30 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil) 

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; South Korean won falls most

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies were mixed in early trade Friday. A weak dollar and a drop in crude oil prices, despite escalation in the war in West Asia, kept sentiment in the market slightly positive. The dollar index retreated from higher levels of above 101 seen during the week as the Japanese yen rose sharply amid likely intervention by the Bank of Japan.

 

Iran targeted US bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain early Friday after US forces bombed a building on Iran's Qeshm Island. Crude oil prices remained below $90 a barrel and did not react much to the recent escalation in West Asia. At 0830 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $88 a barrel, down from $89.03 Thursday. However, Brent crude oil is on track to post an increase of 25% this month. 

 

The South Korean won snapped three consecutive days of gains and fell 1.1% from 1437.58 a dollar Friday. The won had hit a nine-month high of 1,416 a dollar Thursday, likely due to intervention by foreign exchange authorities. The Thai baht also fell 0.3% to 32.39 a dollar. Bucking the trend, the Philippine peso rose 0.3% to 61.33 a dollar due to improving risk sentiment and hawkish signals from the central bank. 

 

Meanwhile, the Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan were broadly steady against the dollar on Friday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 31

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.35
Private-sector bank	95.70	95.30
Private-sector bank	95.70	95.20
Foreign bank	95.75	95.35
Brokerage firm	95.75	95.20
Brokerage firm	95.75	95.35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.3800

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 /+91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.