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Informist, Monday, Aug. 3, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most gains to end slightly higher against the dollar Monday as banks bought the greenback on behalf of importers, dealers said. Market sentiment was dented after Bloomberg Index Services deferred the inclusion of Indian government bonds in its Global Aggregate Index Friday. However, lower crude oil prices and a weaker dollar supported the Indian currency during the session. Foreign fund inflows following the Reserve Bank of India's measures to attract foreign capital also kept the market sentiment positive.

 

"Crude was down, and then there were FPI inflows coming in the morning, which took the rupee higher in the morning. Some bids (dollar) due to the negative impact of Bloomberg deferment hit the rupee today (Monday). Oil importers as well as general small-ticket buying in the market today," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

The rupee, which touched a near four-week high of 95.1100 per dollar, settled at 95.3375 a dollar Monday, broadly steady from 95.3800 Friday. The rupee moved in a range of 24 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies rose against the dollar, with the South Korean won being the best performer. Bucking the trend, the Taiwan dollar fell by 0.4% Monday.  

The rupee started the day on a positive note as crude oil prices fell to a three-week high after US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran would begin on Monday, claiming "there's a deal" on the Strait of Hormuz and the "denuclearization of Iran." Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations between Tehran and Oman on the management of the Strait of Hormuz are in their "final stages". At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was $83.81, down from $87.93 Friday. Brent crude oil had crossed $100 a barrel last week as the US and Iran traded strikes. 

 

After the rupee hit its highest level of the day, most gains were erased as the bidding for dollars rose, as Bloomberg Index Services deferred including Indian government bonds in its Global Aggregate Index, a dealer from a private sector bank said. Bloomberg's deferment weighed on market sentiment as the inclusion in the index would have led to increased foreign inflows into the debt market, boosting the Indian currency. Banks also bought dollars on behalf of importers, which weighed on the local currency.

 

The dollar index remained at over a six-week low Monday as investors' risk appetite rose after the US-Iran paused attacks, reducing the greenback's safe-haven status. The index was also weighed down by the rising Japanese yen. The Japanese yen recorded its highest level in nearly 3 months Monday following a joint intervention from Japan and the US to address recent "excessive volatility and disorderly movements" in the yen. At 1530 IST, the index was 99.83, slightly up from 99.66 Friday. 

 

Inflows from foreign currency non-resident bank deposits, overseas foreign currency borrowings by banks, and external commercial borrowings by public sector undertakings helped maintain positive sentiment in the market. Inflows into the schemes, announced by the Reserve Bank of India in June to attract foreign flows, touched $40.82 billion as of Friday, the RBI said.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3375	95.1450	95.1100	95.3500	95.3800
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	277.00	275.50	278.10	274.40	276.09

 

FORWARDS 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose slightly across tenors as banks purchased forward dollars for importers, dealers said. 

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums had fallen at the open on Monday as banks sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors amid a slew of initial public offerings lined up for the month of August. However, a fall in US Treasury yields supported the forward premiums. US Treasury yields fell on Monday as crude prices subsided and the US and Iran paused attacks to focus on negotiations. At 1530 IST, the 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.68% from 4.70% Friday.    

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was flat at 2.91%. But on an absolute basis, the premium was 277.00 paise, slightly higher than 276.09 paise at close Friday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee is likely to track movements in crude oil prices amid developments in West Asia, dealers said. The domestic currency will also continue to take cues from movements in the dollar index, they said. Traders remain cautious ahead of the announcement of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee meeting decision on Wednesday. The MPC is expected to keep interest rates on hold and maintain the neutral policy stance, owing to uncertainty over the impact of the war in West Asia and the El Nio condition on economic activity and inflation. 

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which will weigh on the rupee. They expect the RBI to intervene if the rupee comes under extreme pressure. 

 

Market participants will track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. Dealers see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 95.00 per dollar, a break of which will take the rupee to 94.80. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.00–95.40 against the dollar Tuesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr at six-wk low as oil falls on peace deal hopes

 

	AT 0300 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3459	1.3506	1.3453	1.3480
EUR/USD	1.1526	1.1559	1.1521	1.1535
NZD/USD	0.5875	0.5908	0.5873	0.5873
AUD/USD	0.7022	0.7055	0.7020	0.7017
USD/JPY	156.6650	157.8840	155.2300	157.4200
USD/CAD	1.4041	1.4044	1.4006	1.4017
EUR/JPY	180.5910	182.4758	179.3690	181.5800
CHF/USD	1.2363	1.2413	1.2353	1.2382
EUR/CHF	0.9322	0.9334	0.9303	0.9310
Dollar Index	99.7700	99.8200	99.4180	99.6590

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose slightly but remained at over a six-week low Monday as the demand for the greenback was subdued, with oil prices falling nearly $5 per barrel on renewed hopes of a peace deal between the US and Iran. The index was also weighed down by the rising Japanese yen, which has a 13.5% weight. 

 

US President Donald Trump in a statement late Saturday said that negotiations with Iran would begin on Monday afternoon and that he had called off an ‌imminent attack on Iran in hopes of quickly reaching a deal that would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and resolve the impasse over Iran's nuclear capabilities. At 0300 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $83.27 a barrel, down from $87.93 Friday.

 

The Japanese yen recorded its highest level in nearly 3 months Monday following a joint intervention from Japan and the US to address recent "excessive volatility and disorderly movements" in the yen. Japan and the US conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention and will not hesitate to take further action, Japan's finance ministry said Monday. The Japanese currency rose marginally to 156.70 per dollar Monday from 157.4 Friday. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ‌reiterated Japan's stance Sunday and urged that a Federal Reserve backstop for foreign central banks and monetary authorities be "upsized."

 

The euro remained steady at $1.153 against the dollar, edging up for the sixth consecutive day as the rise in Euro zone inflation in July bolstered expectations of another rate hike from the European Central Bank in 2026. Inflation in the 21 nations ‌sharing the euro currency, rose to 2.9% in July from 2.8% a month earlier, in line with Street expectations due to surge in oil prices caused by the West Asia war, Eurostat data showed on Friday. The Swiss franc slipped slightly to 0.8083 per dollar Monday from 0.8075 Friday and the Swedish krona remained steady at 9.5332 per dollar. 

 

The British sterling fell slightly to $1.3467 against the dollar as traders revaluated interest rate expectations after the Bank of England held the rates steady at 3.75% Thursday.

 

The Australian dollar remained steady at 1.4249 per dollar and the Canadian dollar rose marginally to 1.4043 per dollar Monday from 1.4021 Friday. (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Premiums tad up as importers buy fwd dollars; FPIs sales weigh

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3275	95.1450	95.1100	95.3425	95.3800
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	277.05	275.50	277.05	274.40	276.09

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose slightly across tenors as banks purchased dollars for importers, who noted a sharp fall in crude oil prices, dealers said. The Indian unit erased most gains in the spot market after it rose near four-week high Monday on high dollar demand following Bloomberg Index Services' deferment from including Indian government bonds in its Global Aggregate Index Friday. 

 

However, dollar-rupee forward premiums fell at the open Monday as banks sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors amid a slew of initial public offerings lined up for the month of August. Inflows in foreign currency non-resident deposits kept the market sentiment positive. Banks have attracted $40.82 billion from Jun. 8 till Friday, as per RBI data. Inflows were from foreign currency non-resident bank deposits, overseas foreign currency borrowings by banks, and external commercial borrowings by public sector undertakings. A major portion of these inflows came from FCNR(B) deposits at $36.73 billion.

 

However, a fall in US Treasury yields supported the forward premiums, as per some dealers. US Treasury yields fell on Monday as crude prices subsided and the US and Iran paused attacks to focus on negotiations. At 1330 IST, the 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.69% from 4.70% Friday.    

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was flat at 2.91%. But on an absolute basis, the premium was 277.05 paise, slightly higher than 276.09 paise at close Friday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Pares some gains as dlr demand up on no Bloomberg index addition

 

	AT 1216 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2650	95.1450	95.1100	95.2675	95.3800

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased some gains as banks bought dollars for importers and investors who pulled out funds from the Indian market after Bloomberg deferred India bonds' inclusion in flagship Global Aggregate Index Friday. "The sell off in bonds definitely impacts the rupee as well. But the overall sentiment remains positive for the rupee as crude oil prices have fallen and US-Iran work towards the peace deal," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Dealers expect the rupee to stay range bound throughout the day as traders remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision scheduled on Wednesday. The RBI is expected to keep interest rates on hold and maintain a neutral policy stance Wednesday, owing to uncertainty over the impact of the war in West Asia and the El Nino condition on economic activity and inflation. 

 

"The liquidity in the market is very thin now as they can await the RBI's comments at MPC meeting. Importers expect rupee to rise more, so they are also on wait-and-watch mode," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

The rupee hit a high of 95.1100 a dollar in early trade as crude oil prices fell sharply after US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran will resume Monday and that the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is near. At 1211 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was $83.12, down from $87.93 Friday. Brent crude oil had crossed $100 a barrel last week as the US and Iran traded attacks.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.05 and 95.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.15 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Rises sharply as oil dn; Bloomberg index inclusion delay weighs

 

	AT 1146 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2100	95.1450	95.11000	95.19000	95.6800

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose for the second consecutive day Monday and touched a four-week high ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting as crude oil prices fell sharply to their lowest in nearly three weeks. 

 

Foreign inflows from an array of initial public offerings on the national stock exchange supported the currency. However, the Indian currency was weighed down as some bids for dollars came in as Bloomberg Index Services' deferred including Indian government bonds in its Global Aggregate Index Friday, a dealer from a brokerage firm said. 

 

Bloomberg's deferment dented positive outlook in the market as the inclusion in the index would lead to increased foreign inflows into the debt market, boosting the Indian currency. The currency was also weighed down due to some oil importers buying dollars.

 

There was no activity from the central bank early Monday following weeks of intervention as the RBI was in a "wait-and-watch mode," while there was low liquidity in the market as investors awaited the RBI's monetary policy meeting, which starts Monday, a dealer from a brokerage firm said. "I think RBI will maintain status quo with the Fed keeping the rates the same and crude oil prices going down. They would likely comment on the inflation risk due to geopolitical tensions and risks from monsoon," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.05 and 95.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.05 a dollar.  (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Aug 3

 

MUMBAI – At 1057 IST, the rupee was at 95.2075 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.1450 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.3800. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.55	95.35	95.15	95.05
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.30	95.05	94.90
Private-sector bank	95.45	95.35	95.10	95.00
Foreign bank	95.45	95.35	95.10	95.00
Brokerage firm	95.60	95.45	95.15	95.05
Brokerage firm	95.55	95.45	95.15	94.95

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Nears 4-week high as crude oil falls on hopes of peace deal

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.1825	95.1450	95.1100	95.1900	95.3800

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar and neared a four-week high as crude oil fell to a three-week low below $85 a barrel after US President Donald Trump said that an agreement with Iran is imminent and that negotiations will begin on Monday.

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations between Tehran and Oman on the management of the Strait of Hormuz are in their "final stages". At 0920 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was $83.64, down from $87.93 Friday. Brent crude oil had crossed $100 a barrel last week as the US and Iran traded attacks. 

 

However, dealers said the Indian unit may not breach the 95.00 per dollar level on Monday, as investors may sell Indian government bonds after Bloomberg Index Services Ltd. deferred a decision on including Indian government securities under the fully accessible route in the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index. Bloomberg deferred the inclusion, saying recent market reforms need more time to become embedded in market practice and that it will continue to review the progress of India's market access and engage with stakeholders. 

 

Banks bought dollars for importers, which weighed on the Indian unit. However, the dollar inflows in foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits are likely to support the rupee. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.05 and 95.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.00 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most rise as oil prices fall on hope of Iran-US deal

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose Monday as oil prices fell to their lowest in nearly three weeks following US President Donald Trump's statement that negotiations with Iran would begin on Monday afternoon.

 

The US president said late Saturday on his Truth Social platform that Iran and other countries in West Asia had asked for time to complete a deal that would lead to "the Immediate, Complete and Total" reopening of the strait and "an end to Iran's nuclear threat" but that Tehran must "rapidly make a DEAL." Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi held phone calls with his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir to discuss diplomatic efforts, Iran's state media reported on Sunday. At 0809 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $83.68 a barrel, down from $87.93 Friday.

 

The Japanese yen hit its highest level in nearly 3 months following a joint intervention from Japan and the US to halt the currency from receding further from its 40-year lows. Japan and the US conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention and will not hesitate to take further action, Japan's finance ministry said Monday.

 

In its statement, Japan's finance ministry said Friday's yen-buying intervention with the US Treasury Department "countered excessive volatility and disorderly movements in the Japanese yen in recent months," and added that "the Japanese Ministry of Finance remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at the US Treasury." The Japanese currency rose to 156.45 per dollar Monday from 157.42 Friday.

 

The South Korean won led the gains among the Asian currencies as it rose 1% to 1,427.38 per dollar Monday. The heavy dollar inflows after SK Hynix converted part of the proceeds from its American depositary receipt Nasdaq offering into won strengthened the currency. The currency was further supported by dollar sales by exporters. 

 

The Philippine peso rose for the second consecutive day as S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index edged up to 51.8 in July from 50.9 in June, marking a third straight month of expansion. The Philippine peso rose marginally to 61 per dollar. The Thai baht rose slightly to 33.35 per dollar Monday from 33.39 Friday. 

 

The Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan fell slightly Monday to 32.33 and 6.75 per dollar respectively. (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 3

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.45	95.05
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.05
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.15
Foreign bank	95.50	95.15
Brokerage firm	95.45	95.05
Brokerage firm	95.35	94.95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.3375

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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