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Crisil Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi on RBI Policy
This story was originally published at 13:25 IST on 5 August 2026
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MUMBAI - Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil Ltd., said the following on the Reserve Bank of India's third bi-monthly monetary policy statement for the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) detailed Wednesday:
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stayed with consensus on rates and stance.
In terms of growth-inflation mix, there is a marginal improvement compared with the June forecast, with growth now projected to be 10 basis points higher and inflation 10 basis points lower.
While retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, moved above the 4% marker line in June, the rise was largely supply-driven, led by higher crude oil and commodity prices, and on a weak base. Core inflation remains relatively contained, suggesting that demand-side price pressures are not yet broad-based.
At the same time, India's economic growth has remained reasonably resilient, supported by healthy domestic demand and strong corporate- and banking-sector balance sheets. However, we expect growth to moderate to 6.6% from 7.7% in the previous fiscal as higher oil prices, weather-related uncertainties and a softer global environment begin to weigh on economic activity.
The key risks to monitor are the trajectory of crude oil prices and the progress of the southwest monsoon given the incipience of El Nino conditions. Global central banks also remain vigilant on inflation, with some raising interest rates and others maintaining the status quo.
At this juncture, monetary authorities would prefer to have the flexibility on policy rates based on data. End
Compiled by Nandini Sinha
Filed by Shubhayan Bhattacharya
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