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Informist, Friday, Aug. 7, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – Jump in the price of Brent crude oil notwithstanding, the rupee ended broadly steady against the dollar Friday, thanks to the Reserve Bank of India's persistent intervention through dollar sales, dealers said. The Indian unit was also weighed by dollar purchases on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, they said. 

 

"RBI held the line for the rupee around 95.28 for the entire day. Otherwise, we were easily looking at beyond 95.50 levels," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. After moving in a tight range of nine paise during the day, the Indian unit settled at 95.2075 a dollar, largely steady from 95.2200 on Thursday. The Indian currency appreciated almost 0.2% against the dollar this week. 

 

The rupee started the day slightly weaker against the dollar as the price of Brent crude oil rose on reports that Iran was considering a bill to ban US and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz.

 

At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil futures for October delivery were at $82.23 a barrel, down from $82.49 Thursday but up from $79.45 Wednesday. It rose to $84.40 during the day. 

 

The losses for the Indian unit were limited at opening as the RBI likely intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said. "We were looking at 94.40 around levels in the morning, but opening was completely different," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. The rupee had opened at 95.2750 a dollar. "I was not expecting the RBI to come at these levels. But looks like 96.00 is not a possibility in the near future."

 

Shortly after opening, the central bank likely stepped in through dollar sales in the spot market as well, dealers said. The RBI likely sold around $1 billion in the spot market Friday, according to some dealers. 

 

"I feel like RBI is intervening at random levels now to keep the market unpredictable," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. "They just want to keep the rupee stable now. No one-sided positions are being allowed to build up."

 

Strong foreign inflows owing to the central bank's foreign capital measures, particularly the foreign currency non-resident deposit window, have added to the RBI's capacity to intervene, dealers said. Foreign fund inflows into the schemes announced by the RBI in June touched $40.82 billion as of Jul. 31, of which $36.73 came from FCNR (B) deposits.

 

Banks bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who feared the Indian unit would weaken further amid uncertainty around the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said. 

 

A broadly strong dollar index owing to safe-haven demand from investors awaiting details of the proposed deal to end the ‌war in West Asia and ahead of Friday's monthly US jobs report also weighed on the local unit, dealers said. US nonfarm payrolls are projected to rise by 80,000 in July after an increase of 57,000 in June, according to a Reuters poll. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 99.91 against 99.96 on Thursday and 99.69 Wednesday. The index hit a high of 100.0 during the day. 

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. Friday, the Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.6% and 0.3% lower, respectively. 

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2075	95.27500	95.1900	95.2825	95.2200
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	262.90	264.90	266.40	262.88	262.06

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly Friday after falling for four consecutive sessions as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the rupee following the sharp overnight rise in crude oil prices, dealers said.

 

Importers also bought dollars for forward delivery, noting lower premium levels, they said. The one-year forward premium fell 15 basis points this week. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.76%, up from 2.75% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 262.90 paise, up slightly from 262.06 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

Monday, the rupee is likely to track movement in crude oil prices amid developments in West Asia, dealers said. Market participants will also keep an eye on potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. 

 

The domestic currency will also continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index after the release of the US jobs data, they said. Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which will weigh on the rupee.

 

The RBI is likely to continue to intervene if the rupee comes under extreme pressure. "One can't really bet on where the RBI will come, but looks like they will come every time there is large movement (in the rupee)," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. 

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.30 per dollar, a break of which may drag the rupee to 95.50. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.00–95.50 against the dollar Monday.

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India Rupee: Premium up on importer demand, RBI forward dlr sales speculated

 

	AT 1342 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2650	95.27500	95.1900	95.2825	95.2200
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	265.00	264.90	266.40	264.80	262.06

 

MUMBAI – The dollar-rupee forward premium rose across tenures Friday after falling for four consecutive days as banks bought dollars for importers following the sharp overnight rise in crude oil prices. "The forward premiums are going up because oil prices have gone up now and importers will be hedging in forward," a dealer from a foreign bank said.

 

The dollar liquidity in the forward market was low Friday and market activity was also low. "Nothing large as of now, but we expect some inflows from the IPOs to come in," the foreign bank dealer said. "There were inflows at 95.50 from FCNR deposits and flows from the market yesterday but were largely offset by oil importer buying dollars and the inflows get swapped with RBI around this time, so the dollar liquidity will be lower in the forward market," the dealer added. 

 

The spot rupee held steady at 95.25 per dollar as the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars in the spot market through nationalised banks to support the Indian currency after the sharp overnight rise in crude oil prices. Some dealers also speculated that the RBI intervened in the offshore and onshore non-deliverable markets early Friday. "There is heavy intervention by the RBI across the board. They are selling dollars through nationalised banks in the NDF, onshore and futures (markets) as well. The rupee pre-market was at 95.40, and then it opened at 95.20," a dealer from a foreign bank said.

 

Dealers noted the rupee would stay around the same level as the bets from importers reduced after the RBI intervention. "The market was shorting yesterday, but now with the dollar index weighing on the rupee, they won't stand against the dollar, now is their chance to go long and run away from the short position," a dealer at another foreign bank said.

 

The rupee was weighed down as crude oil prices rose by over $3 per barrel due to uncertainties over a diplomatic resolution in West Asia and in the process erased most of their gains from the start of the week. At 1421 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $83.23 a barrel against $82.49 Thursday.

 

At 1430 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.78%, up from 2.75% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 264.50 paise, up slightly from 262.06 paise Thursday.(Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Steady as likely RBI intervention offsets jump in crude prices

 

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	AT 1140 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2400	95.2750	95.2400	95.2825	95.2200

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was broadly steady against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars to offset the impact of a jump in prices of Brent crude, dealers said. State-owned banks likely sold dollars on behalf of the central bank around 95.28 a dollar, they said.

 

"RBI has been very persistent around 95.28 (a dollar). It is a bit surprising," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "It will be interesting to see if they hold the level for the entire day." Earlier in the day, the central bank also likely intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, according to dealers. 

 

Brent crude oil futures rose on reports that Iran was considering a bill to ban US and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz. At 1140 IST, Brent crude oil futures for October delivery were at $83.62 a barrel, up from $82.49 Thursday and $79.45 Wednesday. It rose to $84.44 during the day. 

 

Further, the Indian unit was weighed by dollar purchases from some state-owned banks ahead of the daily reference rate fixing, dealers said. Some banks also bought dollars on behalf of importers, who feared further weakness in the Indian unit, they said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.10 and 95.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.30 a dollar. (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Aug 7

 

MUMBAI – At 1110 IST, the rupee was at 95.2725 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.2750 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.2200. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.50	95.30	95.15	95.00
Private-sector bank	-	95.50	95.00	-
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.50	95.10	95.00
Brokerage firm	-	95.50	94.75	-

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Tad down as crude up; RBI's likely dlr sales in NDF limit fall

 

--Dealers: RBI's likely dlr sales in offshore NDF mkt limit rupee's losses 

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2600	95.2750	95.2500	95.2825	95.2200

 

India Rupee: Tad down as crude up; RBI's likely dlr sales in NDF limit fall

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar despite a sharp rise in crude oil prices as the Reserve Bank of India likely intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said. The Indian unit was trading around 95.40 a dollar in the offshore NDF market at least 10 minutes before it opened in the spot market at 95.2750, thanks to the RBI, dealers said. 

 

"RBI is clearly trying to curb excess volatility," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I am expecting them (RBI) to come in spot too. I am expecting rupee to hold around 95.30-95.35."

 

The Indian unit was weighed by a jump in price of Brent crude oil owing to concerns around the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil futures settled almost 3% higher on Thursday and over 1% in early trade Friday as report said Iran reviewed a bill to ban the US and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil futures for October delivery was $83.47 a barrel, up from $82.49 Thursday and $79.45 Wednesday. It rose to $83.86 during early trade. 

 

During the day, dealers expect importers to purchase the greenback, fearing further weakness of the Indian unit. However, they expect the central bank to intervene through dollar sales in the spot market as well, limiting sharp losses for the Indian unit. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.10 and 95.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.30 a dollar. (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most steady as oil rises by over $3 per barrel

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were steady Friday as crude oil prices rose by over $3 per barrel on uncertainties over West Asia after reports that a parliamentary committee in Iran is reviewing a preliminary bill ‌that would bar ships from the US, Israel, and other "hostile" nations from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The draft bill proposes fines of up to 20% of a ship's ‌cargo value for violations of the proposed restrictions. At 0846 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $83.32 a barrel against $82.49 Tuesday.

 

The Japanese yen held steady at 158.37 against the dollar Friday as it erased most of its gains from the coordinated yen-buying intervention by the US and Japan. The yen remained well off its 40-year low of around 164 per dollar, but a wide interest-rate gap with the US, high national debt, and the war in West Asia continued to weigh down the currency. The Japanese consumer spending fell for a seventh straight month to 3.3% on year in June as it underperformed compared to the street estimate of a rise of 1%.

 

The South Korean won rose marginally to 1,420.03 per dollar Friday from 1,422.61 Thursday and remained near a record high as exporters converted dollar earnings into the local currency. Korea's semiconductor exports have supported the currency as chipmakers sold dollars in the market even as the local stock market saw a sell-off. The Taiwan dollar edged up for the fourth consecutive day Friday to 32.212 per dollar from 32.235 Thursday. 

 

The Philippine peso fell for the second consecutive day as rising oil prices weighed the currency down. The peso fell marginally to 60.95 per dollar Friday from 60.78 Thursday. The Thai baht and Chinese yuan held steady Friday at 33.11 and 6.75 per dollar, respectively. (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 7

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.50	95.15
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.15
Private-sector bank	95.45	95.10
Brokerage firm	95.50	95.00
Brokerage firm	95.55	95.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.21

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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