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Informist, Monday, Aug. 10, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended lower against the dollar Monday as the price of Brent crude oil rose and as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, the fall of the Indian currency was limited as the Reserve Bank of India intervened actively through dollar sales, a pattern seen in the past few sessions as well, they said. 

 

"The rupee was range-bound throughout the day. It was the same pattern we have been seeing since last week," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "95.30 is being protecting heavily." The Indian unit traded in a tight band of 13 paise during the day and settled at 95.3000 a dollar against 95.2075 Friday.

 

The rupee started the day broadly steady against the dollar as a rise in crude oil price neutralised the impact of a fall in the dollar index to near a two-month low, dealers said. Brent crude oil price rose amid uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Iran said Sunday a deal on new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz was close to being finalised, but reiterated that the key energy route will reopen only once the US meets other conditions. At 1530 IST, the Brent crude oil futures contract for October delivery was at $84.56 a barrel, up from $83.55 Friday and $82.49 Thursday.

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index hovered near a two-month low after data Friday showed the US economy unexpectedly ‌lost jobs in July, lowering expectations of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve next month. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 99.70 against 99.60 Friday and 99.96 Thursday. The index had fallen to a low of 99.40 Friday, its lowest level since Jun. 15.

 

As the rupee came under pressure shortly after the spot market opened, the central bank stepped in to sell dollars, dealers said. The RBI intervened actively throughout the day, with some estimating the dollar sales to be around $1 billion, same as Friday. "RBI has kept a hardstop at 95.30 for now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "RBI seems to be using the inflows it is getting from its schemes."

 

Robust foreign inflows owing to the central bank's measures to attract foreign capital, particularly the foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposit window, has increased the RBI's capacity to intervene, dealers said. Foreign fund inflows into schemes announced by the RBI in June attracted $40.82 billion from Jun. 8 to Jul. 31, of which $36.73 came through the FCNR(B) deposits concessional window.

 

Meanwhile, the Financial Express reported Monday, quoting "official sources", that the RBI may shut the concessional swap window to encourage FCNR(B) deposits as early as this week, well before its scheduled end on Sept. 30. The rupee shrugged off this news, with most market participants disagreeing with the report.

 

The Indian currency also came under pressure as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who fear a further depreciation of the rupee, dealers said. "It is a matter of time that rupee will break 95.30," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. "If crude keeps rising there is only so much RBI will defend."

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3000	95.1700	95.1700	95.3000	95.2075
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	263.67	262.10	264.42	262.06	262.90

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended slightly higher as some banks bought forward dollars for importers, fearing a further weakness in the rupee, dealers said. The volume in the forward market was lower than usual as traders exercised caution and waited for new developments related to the war in West Asia to assess the trajectory of crude oil prices, dealers said. 

 

Traders also await the US and India inflation data, due Wednesday, for more cues on the interest rate path of both economies. Economists expect India's headline inflation in July to remain steady at 4.4?spite higher food prices caused by deficient rainfall across the country, according to an Informist Poll.

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.77%, up from 2.76% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 263.67 paise, up slightly from 262.90 paise Friday.

 

OUTLOOK

Tuesday, the rupee is likely to track movement in crude oil prices and the dollar index amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. "While domestic macroeconomic fundamentals remain constructive, they are currently being overshadowed by geopolitical headwinds and dollar bargain-hunting from the traders," Dilip Parmar, research analyst at HDFC Securities, said in a note.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars fearing further weakening of the rupee, which will weigh on the Indian currency. "Importers will book all the dip (in dollar-rupee)," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. "The risk factor is still there in everyone's mind."

 

The RBI is likely to continue to intervene if the rupee comes under extreme pressure. They expect the central bank to continue protecting 95.30 a dollar, as has been the case recently. 

 

"From a technical standpoint, spot USDINR (dollar-rupee) is expected to edge higher toward 95.60, with firm support seen at 94.90," Parmar said. Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.30 per dollar, a break below which may drag the rupee to 95.50. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.00–95.50 against the dollar Tuesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar steady, US consumer inflation in focus

 

	AT 1523 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3498	1.3507	1.3483	1.3490
EUR/USD	1.1559	1.1567	1.1545	1.1559
NZD/USD	0.5895	0.5899	0.5879	0.5891
AUD/USD	0.7066	0.7074	0.7057	0.7064
USD/JPY	158.8210	158.8360	157.6900	157.8010
USD/CAD	1.3941	1.3965	1.3934	1.3953
EUR/JPY	183.5820	183.6220	182.2400	182.3800
CHF/USD	1.2376	1.2395	1.2350	1.2370
EUR/CHF	0.9340	0.9351	0.9331	0.9339
Dollar Index	99.6790	99.7280	99.6030	99.6320

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index was steady against major currencies Monday but remained near its lowest levels in nearly a month due to subdued demand. Demand fell as investors' expectations for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in the near term dampened following unexpectedly weak US nonfarm payrolls data Friday.

 

A decline in the US treasury yield following the weaker jobs report also weighed the currency down. Traders now await US consumer price index data scheduled for release Wednesday to gauge the US Federal Reserve's stance on the near-term interest rates. Rising oil prices due to continued uncertainties in West Asia supported the safe haven unit.

 

The Japanese yen fell to its lowest level since joint currency market intervention by the US and Japan on Jul. 31, as the country reported an unexpected current account deficit in June. Japan's current account was in deficit of 92.3 billion yen in June, down sharply from a surplus of 1.28 trillion yen a year ago and a Reuters' estimate 1.51 trillion yen surplus. The yen fell marginally to 158.69 a dollar Monday from 157.75 Friday, but remained above its 40-year low of 164 a dollar. 

 

Meanwhile, a summary of opinions of the Bank of Japan's July meeting Monday highlighted the growing risks of the bank falling behind the inflation curve as it showed that at least three of the board's nine members said that the central bank could raise rates quicker than its current pace of roughly two increases a year. The views from Bank of Japan's July meeting bolstered market expectations for a September rate hike.

 

The euro held steady at 0.87 against the dollar Monday, while the British sterling remained unchanged at 0.74 against the dollar as investors cautiously awaited diplomatic efforts to end the West Asia war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Swedish krona rose marginally to 9.48 a dollar Monday from 9.50 Friday and the Swiss franc held steady at 0.81 per dollar.  

 

The Australian dollar held steady at 1.41 a dollar ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decision Tuesday. The Australian central bank is widely expected to hold its rate at 4.35% for the rest of the year. The Canadian dollar was unchanged at 1.39 against the dollar.  (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: 1-yr premium tad up as importers buy fwd dollars; volume dull

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2550	95.1700	95.1700	95.2725	95.2075
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	263.67	262.10	264.42	262.06	262.90

 

MUMBAI - The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium edged up slightly for the second consecutive day as some banks bought forward dollars for importers, fearing further weakness in the rupee, dealers said.

 

The rupee fell slightly against the dollar Monday due to a rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. However, it was supported by dollar sales, likely from the Reserve Bank of India, they added. Crude oil prices rose over 5% in the last four days due to uncertainties over a diplomatic resolution in West Asia. At 1235 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $83.62 a barrel, up from $83.55 Friday and slightly down from its earlier high of $84.97.

 

Meanwhile, liquidity in the forward market was lacklustre as traders cautiously awaited new developments related to the war in West Asia to gauge the trajectory of oil prices, dealers said. "Low flow, low liquidity, the market is silent. It is a calm before the storm," a dealer from a brokerage firm said.

 

Traders also cautiously await the US and India inflation data, due Wednesday, for more cues on the interest rate path of both economies. Economists expect India's headline inflation in July to remain steady at 4.4?spite higher food prices caused by deficient rainfall across the country, according to an Informist poll. 

At 1317 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.77%, up from 2.76% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 263.67 paise, up slightly from 262.90 paise Friday.  (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee:Steady as RBI's likely dlr sales offset impact of oil price rise

 

	AT 1129 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2500	95.1700	95.1700	95.2550	95.2075

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar Monday as the Reserve Bank of India's intervention through dollar sales offset the impact of rising crude oil prices amid growing uncertainty over a diplomatic resolution to the war in West Asia, dealers said.  

 

The central bank likely sold dollars through state-owned banks around 95.25 level, dealers said. However, the intervention was not aggressive in nature, they added. 

 

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive day Monday due to uncertainty in the deal defining new shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran. At 1058 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $83.94 a barrel, up from $83.55 Friday. It rose to $84.97 a barrel earlier in the day. 

 

The rupee was also weighed down by dollar purchases on behalf of importers, who looked to hedge against the growing uncertainty and rising oil prices, dealers said. "The rupee opened around 95.18 and went to 95.24, largely because of importers and traders' demand for dollars. The rupee is depreciating as there is hedging demand from the importers," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Dealers also noted low market activity in the early trade session and expect the rupee to be range bound throughout the day. "Volumes are very low today as the triggers are offset by the weak NFP (US Nonfarm Payrolls data) leading to a low dollar index even as oil prices are high," a dealer from another foreign bank said. 

 

The Indian currency was supported by a broadly lower US dollar after investors' expectations for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in the near term were dampened due to an unexpected fall in jobs in the US in July while job gains for the previous two months were revised sharply downward. Traders now await the inflation data from the US and India, scheduled to be released Wednesday, to gauge the direction of interest rates amid rising uncertainty on the West Asia front.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.00 and 95.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.30 a dollar.  (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Aug 10

 

MUMBAI – At 1105 IST, the rupee was at 95.2200 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.1700 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.2075. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	95.30	95.25	95.00	94.90
Private-sector bank	95.40	95.25	95.05	94.90
Brokerage firm	-	95.40	94.70	-
Brokerage firm	95.50	95.30	95.10	95.00

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Tad down as crude up; RBI expected to intervene via dlr sales

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2425	95.1700	95.1700	95.2350	95.2075

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar as price of Brent crude oil rose amid uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. "The rupee is rangebound so far, but I am expecting buying (of dollars) to come at these levels," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "RBI (Reserve Bank of India) may supports rupee around these levels today as well."

 

Iran Sunday said a deal on new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz was close to finalising but reiterated the key energy route will reopen only once the US meets other conditions. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil futures for October delivery was $84.37 a barrel, up from $83.55 Friday and $82.49 Thursday.

 

However, dealers expect the RBI to intervene through dollar sales, limiting sharp losses for the Indian unit, as has been the case recently. On Friday, the central bank intervened around 95.28 a dollar actively, they said. 

 

Further, the dollar index hovered near a two-month low after data Friday showed the US economy unexpectedly ‌lost jobs in July, denting expectations of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve next month and supporting rupee. At 0930 IST, the dollar index was at 99.70 against 99.60 on Friday and 99.96 Thursday. The index fell a low of 99.40 Friday, its lowest level since Jun. 15. 

 

During the day, dealers expect importers to purchase the greenback, fearing further weakness of the Indian unit, which may weigh on the Indian unit. Meanwhile, the Financial Express reported Monday quoting "official sources" that the RBI may shut the concessional swap window to encourage FCNR(B) deposits as early as this week, well before its scheduled end on Sept. 30. Market participants, however, do not expect any impact on the rupee from this, with most disagreeing with the report. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.00 and 95.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.30 a dollar.  (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as oil rises on uncertainty in West Asia

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell Monday as crude oil prices continued to rise for the fourth consecutive day and traders cautiously looked out for new developments in the Iran-Oman deal on shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said Sunday that the deal with Oman was in its final stages but would not be finalised until the US fulfils other conditions for reopening the strait. At 0836 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $84.51 a barrel, up from $83.55 Friday.

 

The Japanese yen fell marginally to 158.26 per dollar Monday and erased most of its gains from the intervention last week as the country reported a current account deficit in June, the first in 17 months. Japan's current account deficit was at 92.3 billion yen in June, down sharply from a surplus of 1.28 trillion yen from a year ago and the Street estimate of a surplus of 1.51 trillion yen. The country's current account deficit was largely casued by a lower net balance for primary income from securities and direct investment, the primary driver of Japan's ‌current account surplus, on account of larger dividend payouts from Japanese companies to foreign investors. Rising oil import costs due to the war in West Asia also led to the country's trade deficit in June. 

 

The South Korean won led the losses among Asian units as it fell marginally to 1415.68 a dollar Monday from 1407.45 Friday. The Chinese yuan fell slightly to 6.75 a dollar Monday from 6.74 Friday. Meanwhile, the Thai baht, the Taiwan dollar, and the Philippine peso held steady Monday at 33.02, 32.20, and 60.77 a dollar respectively.  (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 10

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.30	95.00
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.10
Private-sector bank	95.25	94.90
Private-sector bank	95.25	95.05
Brokerage firm	95.50	95.00
Brokerage firm	95.44	94.94

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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