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Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI – Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd. is expected to report moderate improvement in its consolidated top line for the June quarter as operations of its wholly-owned luxury car subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc. continue their gradual recovery. Its consolidated bottom line, however, is expected to fall sharply on year, given the potentially modest growth in revenues and higher costs.

 

The Nexon maker is projected to report a consolidated net profit of INR 12.54 billion for the June quarter, down over 51% on year, according to the average of estimates from nine brokerages which vary quite widely. The highest estimate for the net profit is INR 19.58 billion from ICICI Securities Ltd. and the lowest is INR 6.66 billion from HDFC Securities Ltd. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. remains the outlier as it expects the carmaker to report a loss of INR 1.18 billion for the quarter.

 

Tata Motors PV's revenues for the June quarter are expected to be INR 925.70 billion, up 6% on year, according to the average of 10 estimates. Projections for the carmaker's revenues range from a high of INR 949.84 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. to a low of INR 911.45 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

JLR WOES

Jaguar Land Rover accounts for nearly 80% of the company's consolidated revenues. In the June quarter, JLR recorded wholesale sales of 79,300 units, down 9% on year, while its retail sales slumped 15% to 80,000 units. The wholesale sales were affected by weakness in China, Europe, and other markets. Sales of Range Rover, Range Rover Sport, and Defender--among the more premium models sold by the company--formed around 81% of its overall dispatches mix, up from 77% in the year-ago quarter.

 

Just as the company was recovering from a major cyber incident in late August last year, its sales were hit by temporary supply constraints, including a fire at a key component supplier at the start of the June quarter, as well as market disruptions stemming from the war in West Asia. The company is also in the midst of a planned wind-down of outgoing Jaguar models ahead of the launch of the Jaguar Type 01.

 

RESILIENT DOMESTIC SALES

The domestic business of Tata Motors PV, which includes sales of models such as the Nexon, Punch, and Harrier, continued to thrive in the June quarter. The company registered wholesale sales of 182,574 cars in the reporting period, up 46% on year. While its domestic sales grew 45% to 180,166 units, exports jumped to 2,408 units from 970 units a year ago. Revenues of the domestic passenger vehicle business are expected to rise sharply because of a healthy increase in wholesale despatches and a 16-18% on-year increase in average selling price of the company's cars because of a higher mix of electric vehicles and premium models, according to Kotak Securities Ltd. Tata Motors had increased prices by 0.5% in April, followed by an additional 1.5% hike in July.

 

"While supply constraints impacted Sierra volumes during the quarter, customer interest and booking momentum remain robust. Corrective measures are currently underway to further augment production from select vendors in line with demand and this will progressively enable us to accelerate deliveries from Q2 (September quarter) onward," Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Shailesh Chandra had said in July.

 

New product launches have helped Tata Motors PV regain lost ground in market share in India over the last year. The company had a retail market share of 14.11% as of Jul. 31--the second best after Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.--up from 12.28% a year ago.

 

The company's consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the June quarter are pegged at INR 64.24 billion, down around 15%, according to the average of seven estimates. The lowest estimate is INR 51.41 billion from YES Securities and the highest is INR 72.61 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

 

Analysts expect the company's consolidated EBITDA margin to fall because of negative operating leverage, raw material pressures, and the appreciation of the pound against the dollar, which will be partly offset by higher-priced car models in the sales mix. Tata Motors had reported a consolidated EBITDA margin of 8.6% in the year-ago quarter and 12.8% in the March quarter. Motilal Oswal expects this to contract sharply to 5.7% for the reporting quarter, as JLR faced supply constraints, on top of a rise in commodity prices.

 

Tata Motors PV will disclose its earnings for the June quarter Thursday. Wednesday, its shares ended at INR 343 apiece on the National Stock Exchange, down 1.3% from Tuesday. The stock is up around 3% since the company reported its results for the March quarter on May 13. Of the 10 research reports on the company available with Informist, four have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 410 per share, which is 18% higher than Wednesday's closing price. Three brokerages have a "hold" recommendation on the stock with a target price of INR 374. Three others have a "sell" call on the stock with an average target price of INR 347.

 

Following are the Apr-Jun earnings estimates, in INR billion, for Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles from 10 brokerages, in descending order of net profit estimate and a net loss estimate:

 

Brokerage	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
ICICI Securities Ltd.	931.35	19.58	69.12
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	922.85	19.39	72.61
Kotak Securities Ltd.	932.00	15.73	64.00
Nomura Equity Research	912.80	13.35	59.17
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	929.71	13.02	68.21
360 ONE Capital Market Pvt. Ltd.	912.09	9.17	N.A.
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	949.84	8.02	65.19
YES Securities (India) Ltd.	911.45	7.95	51.41
HDFC Securities Ltd.	920.50	6.66	N.A.
Average	924.73	12.54	64.24
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	934.36	-1.18	52.86

 

End

 

Edited by Shubhayan Bhattacharya

 

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