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Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained under pressure and fell against the dollar Tuesday as Brent crude oil price crossed $91 per barrel for the first time in two weeks after the US and Iran failed to renew their ceasefire deal, which expired Monday, dealers said. However, dollar sales by public-sector banks on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India limited the fall of the Indian currency, they said.

 

"The market was muted, there wasn't much momentum... Importers won't jump in just because crude has risen. There is still no clarity on the war front, so they are in a wait-and-watch mode," a dealer with a state-owned bank said. 

 

The rupee settled at 95.6800 per dollar Tuesday, down from Monday's close of 95.6025 per dollar. The currency moved in a very tight range of 5 paise. Other Asian currencies were mixed against the dollar, with the South Korean won being the best performer.

 

Banks bought dollars for importers, fearing a further rise in crude oil price, which weighed on the Indian currency. However, the volumes of the dollar biddings were quite low and there wasn't much momentum in the market, dealers said.

 

Dealers said the Indian currency might have depreciated further if not for dollar sales by the RBI. The central bank has been using the dollar inflows received through the foreign currency non-resident (banks) swap window to support the rupee, they said. India's foreign-exchange reserves have surged by over $36 billion from the week ended Jun. 12, reaching $707 billion by Aug. 7. The RBI's measures to boost foreign capital inflows attracted a total of $56.85 billion between Jun. 8 and Thursday. Of this, inflows through FCNR(B) deposits amounted to $52.30 billion.

 

"RBI was seen in morning today at around 95.65," a dealer from a state-owned bank said. "They have been continuously hitting market past two weeks, around $1 billion everyday. Depreciation is inevitable, RBI is making sure it's gradual."

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6800	95.6625	95.6400	95.6850	95.6025
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	270.50	272.95	272.95	269.83	266.33

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to a two-week-high Tuesday as the sharp rise in crude oil price prompted banks to purchase dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear further weakening of the Indian currency, dealers said.

 

A rise in US Treasury yields weighed on the forward premiums, as per some dealers. US Treasury yields rose Tuesday as the US and Iran refrained from renewing their ceasefire deal after it expired Monday, raising fears of a further escalation of the war in the region. At 1630 IST, the 10-year US bond yield rose to an over two-week high of 4.75% from 4.73% Monday.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.83%, up from 2.79% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 270.50 paise, up from 266.33 paise at close Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

Wednesday, the rupee will continue to track crude oil prices amid developments in the war between the US and Iran. Dealers expect the RBI to continue with its dollar sales, keeping the Indian currency steady in the wake of rising uncertainty in West Asia.

 

Market participants will keep a close eye on the dollar index as investors continue to scale back expectations of a rate hike at the next meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee in September. "Crude oil moving towards $90 per barrel remains a key pressure point for the rupee, while market participants await the FOMC meeting minutes (due Wednesday) for fresh cues on the dollar and its impact on emerging-market currencies. The rupee is expected to trade in the 95.25–95.85 range in the near term," LKP Securities said in a note.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.65 per dollar, a break below which may drag it to 95.80. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.25–95.85 against the dollar Wednesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index rebounds on safe-haven demand as oil rises

 

	AT 1415 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3530	1.3554	1.3519	1.3539
EUR/USD	1.1574	1.1586	1.1567	1.1577
NZD/USD	0.5878	0.5909	0.5872	0.5897
AUD/USD	0.7104	0.7113	0.7095	0.7101
USD/JPY	159.6680	159.7770	159.3160	159.4180
USD/CAD	1.3869	1.3878	1.3864	1.3874
EUR/JPY	184.8130	184.9169	184.5100	184.5260
CHF/USD	1.2320	1.2341	1.2312	1.2327
EUR/CHF	0.9394	0.9397	0.9385	0.9387

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index recovered slightly and edged away from a 10-week low due to safe-haven demand after US President Donald Trump said he was not seeking an extension of the ceasefire deal with Iran, which expired Monday, leading to tension between the US and Iran and a rise in crude oil prices.

 

However, markets are no longer fully pricing in a rate hike by the year-end after the recent data. The scaling back of expectations of a rate hike sent the dollar index to a 10-week low of 99.294 Monday. Investors await minutes of the Fed's July meeting, which is scheduled for release on Wednesday, for further clues on the policy outlook. The index was at 99.65 at 1415 IST, up from 99.58 Monday.

 

The Japanese yen fell to over two-week low to 159.56 against the dollar as oil prices rose on renewed concern about US-Iran tensions. 

 

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.157 Tuesday but stayed at a two-month high hit on Monday. Investors price in roughly an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank in September. The sterling pound also fell 0.2% to $1.35 Tuesday.

 

The Australian dollar was broadly steady and remained near its strongest level since Jun. 5, while the Canadian dollar was at $1.38 per dollar Tuesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: One-year premium at two-week high as importers buy fwd dollars

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6700	95.6625	95.6400	95.6825	95.6025
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	271.00	272.95	272.95	269.98	266.33

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar rupee forward premium rose to a two-week-high Tuesday as the sharp rise in crude oil prices prompted banks to purchase dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear further weakness of the Indian unit, dealers said.

 

The Indian unit fell Tuesday as Brent crude oil prices surged above $91 per barrel amid rising tension between the US and Iran. The central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market, which kept the rupee from falling towards 95.70, dealers said. However, the RBI most likely did not conduct buy-sell swaps to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, they said.

 

A rise in US Treasury yields weighed on the forward premiums, as per some dealers. US Treasury yields rose on Tuesday as the US and Iran refrained from renewing the ceasefire deal after it expired Monday, raising fears of further escalations. At 1330 IST, the 10-year US bond yield rose to over two-week high of 4.75% from 4.73% Monday. 

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.83%, up from 2.79% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 271.00 paise, higher than 266.33 paise at close Monday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Remains down as oil above $91/bbl; RBI keeps range bound

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6725	95.6625	95.6400	95.6825	95.6025

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained at over-two-week low against the dollar Tuesday as crude oil prices rose by $3 a barrel overnight after the US and Iran failed to renew the ceasefire deal. However, the Reserve Bank of India's dollar sales through public sector banks kept the rupee range bound during the day. "There is not much volatility in the market. We can see the rupee is in a tight range, because there is RBI on the selling side," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The RBI has been intervening in the market for around two weeks, limiting sharp depreciation despite escalations and higher crude oil prices. Dealers said the RBI likely sold around $15 billion so far in August. 

 

Banks bought dollars for importers, fearing a further rise in crude oil, which weighed on the Indian unit. However, the volumes of the dollar biddings were quite low and there wasn't much momentum in the market, dealers said. "The market will not move when it is expected, because they factor in for volatility earlier," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

Meanwhile, noting the higher dollar-rupee levels, exporters stepped in with dollar sales, which also prevented a sharp fall of the rupee. "The rupee has fallen below 95.50 (per dollar) after two weeks, so this is a good level for them, that's why they are coming in," the dealer said.

 

Meanwhile, rising tensions in West Asia, as both warring countries failed to renew the ceasefire deal, sent Brent crude oil for October futures to $91.50 per barrel, up from Monday's low of $88.01. The uncertainty in the peace deal puts pressure on the Indian unit. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.60 and 95.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.70 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)  

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Aug 18

 

MUMBAI – At 1106 IST, the rupee was at 95.6700 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.6625 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.6025. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.80	95.70	95.60	95.50
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.70	95.60	95.55
Private-sector bank	95.85	95.75	95.55	95.45
Brokerage firm	95.95	95.80	95.60	95.50
Brokerage firm	95.95	95.88	95.48	95.25

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Tad down as crude rises sharply; RBI's dollar sales limit fall

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6700	95.6625	95.6400	95.6825	95.6025

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar Tuesday as crude oil prices crossed $91 per barrel for the first time in two weeks after the US and Iran failed to renew a ceasefire deal, which expired on Monday. A US official said that they will impose economic sanctions against Iran, with the aim of forcing it to surrender. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was $91.44 per barrel, up from Monday's low of $88.01 per barrel. 

 

However, public sector banks sold dollars, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, which limited the sharp fall of the Indian unit. According to the dealers, the RBI has been selling at least $1 billion every day to keep the Indian unit from falling sharply. 

 

Banks also bought dollars for importers, which weighed on the currency, they said. "The demand for dollars will always be there. Trading activity will also be there as the crude prices are up. The sentiment for the rupee will calm down when crude retreats back to 70 ($/barrel)," a dealer at a public sector bank. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move between 95.40 and 95.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.70 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 18

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.60
Private-sector bank	95.85	95.55
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.40
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.50
Brokerage firm	95.85	95.55
Brokerage firm	95.80	95.48

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; weak dlr helps but higher crude prices weigh

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note early trade Tuesday. A weaker dollar index supported, but a sharp rise in crude oil prices weighed on the regional units. Brent crude oil prices rose above $91 per barrel overnight after US President Donald Trump said he was not in a rush to renew the ceasefire deal with Iran. "They want to make a deal, but they're not going to make the kind of deal that I feel is necessary," Trump said in the Oval Office Monday.

 

The dollar remained down against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, reflecting doubts over whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. However, the index edged away from a 10-week low hit in the previous session. At 0830 IST, the index was at 99.56, down from 99.58 Monday.

 

The South Korean won rose the most among the Asian peers Tuesday. The won continued its winning streak for the third consecutive day and rose to a 10-month high Tuesday. The currency was up 0.3% to 1,410 per dollar.

 

The Taiwan dollar extended its gain for the fourth straight day and remained at an over one-month high Tuesday. The currency rose 0.2% and to 33.01 per dollar Tuesday.

 

The Malaysian ringgit traded 0.2% higher against the dollar. The Philippine peso and the Thai baht were broadly steady against the dollar Tuesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)  End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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