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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee inched lower against the dollar to a three-week low Wednesday as crude oil prices firmed up above $91 per barrel on rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia, dealers said. Importers' dollar purchases also kept the rupee under pressure. However, the Reserve Bank of India's mild dollar sales made sure the Indian currency did not breach 95.80 per dollar, they said.

 

"The flows were evenly matched, that's why we couldn't see much movement today (Wednesday)," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "But unlike the previous week, the RBI was not very aggressive." 

 

The rupee settled at 95.7525 per dollar Wednesday, down from Tuesday's close of 95.6800 per dollar. The currency showed a similar trend as in the previous session and moved in a tight range of 5 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies were mixed against the dollar, with the South Korean won being the best performer. 

 

The rupee opened slightly lower against the dollar as crude oil prices remained high because of the lack of efforts by the US and Iran to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said no talks are underway or scheduled with Iran. This came after both countries refrained from renewing their ceasefire deal, which expired Monday.

 

However, the impact of higher crude oil prices amid growing tension in West Asia was mostly countered by the RBI's dollar sales. Public-sector banks sold dollars at around 95.75, likely for the RBI, to limit the rupee's fall. The intervention kept the rupee range-bound. The central bank has been using the dollar inflows through the foreign currency non-resident (banks) swap window to support the rupee, they said. The RBI's measures to boost foreign capital inflows have attracted a total of $56.85 billion between Jun. 8 and Thursday. Of this, inflows through FCNR(B) deposits amounted to $52.30 billion.

 

Banks also sold dollars for exporters, noting relatively higher dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The rupee broke past the 95.50 per-dollar mark Monday after trading tightly within a 95.20–95.40 range for more than two weeks, triggering dollar sales by exporters. 

 

Banks also sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors, they said. FPIs net purchases in the Indian capital markets so far in August amount to $1.6 billion, following a calendar-year high of $4.37 billion in net inflows in July.

 

The rupee was also supported by the dollar index, which returned to a two-month low Wednesday as investors awaited the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's July policy meeting, due later in the day, for clarity on the interest-rate path in the world's largest economy. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six major peers, was down at 99.39 from 99.65 Tuesday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7525	95.7100	95.7100	95.7625	95.6800
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	272.30	269.80	272.30	268.50	270.50

 

PREMIUMS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose slightly as banks bought forward dollars for importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. 

 

However, the dollar-rupee forward premium was trading lower for most of the day because of high rupee liquidity in the market, thanks to inflows into the FCNR(B) scheme. Dealers said the inflows have remained robust with banks and non-resident Indians working to maximise foreign currency inflows ahead of the Aug. 31 deadline for the scheme's closure.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.83%, unchanged from Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 272.30 paise, up slightly from 270.50 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

Thursday, the rupee will track the dollar index as investors await the US Federal Open Market Committee minutes, due later Wednesday, for clarity on the interest rate outlook in the US. The Fed left interest rates unchanged last month, although three officials dissented in favour of a rate hike. Investors continue to scale back expectations of a rate hike at the September meeting of the FOMC.

 

The rupee will continue to track crude oil prices amid developments in the war between the US and Iran. Dealers expect the RBI to continue with its dollar sales, keeping the Indian currency steady in the wake of rising uncertainty in West Asia.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.80 per dollar, a break below which may drag it to 95.95. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.65-95.85 against the dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar weakens ahead of Fed meeting minutes

 

	AT 1400 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3556	1.3566	1.3524	1.3534
EUR/USD	1.1597	1.1605	1.1570	1.1574
NZD/USD	0.5876	0.5880	0.5861	0.5872
AUD/USD	0.7077	0.7086	0.7067	0.7082
USD/JPY	159.1190	159.6410	159.0570	159.6070
USD/CAD	1.3880	1.3908	1.3870	1.3891
EUR/JPY	184.5340	184.8044	184.4740	184.7300
CHF/USD	1.2328	1.2343	1.2303	1.2306
EUR/CHF	0.9407	0.9409	0.9396	0.9398

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index returned to a two-month low on Wednesday as investors await minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting for clarity on the path of interest rates. Investors' expectation that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates for the September meeting rose to 67% from 63% Tuesday. At 1400 IST, the dollar index, which measures the US currency against six major peers, was down at 99.49 from 99.65 Tuesday.

 

The euro inched up to $1.1582, remaining close to the two-month high touched earlier this week. The sterling pound was little changed at $1.3538, holding near a three-month high ‌despite the UK inflation rate rising to 2.9% in the year to July, up from 2.6% in June, and the highest level since March.

 

The Japanese yen inched up to 159.40 per dollar, but gave away much of its intervention gains. However, yen is still far from 40-year low of about 164 per dollar.

 

The Canadian dollar and Australian dollar were broadly steady at 1.388 per US dollar and 1.412 respectively.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums tad down on high liquidity; importers buy supports

 

	AT 1342 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7450	95.7100	95.7100	95.7350	95.6800
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	271.20	269.80	271.90	268.50	270.50

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums snapped a two-day winning streak and fell marginally due to high rupee liquidity in the market, thanks to inflows into the foreign currency non-resident (banks) scheme. Dealers said the inflows into FCNR (B) deposits remained robust as banks and non-resident Indians (NRIs) actively work to maximise foreign currency inflows ahead of the Aug. 31 deadline. The rupee liquidity remained high in the market as banks swapped dollars from three- to five-year FCNR(B) deposits with the central bank without any hedging costs.

 

However, the fall in the dollar-rupee forward premium was limited as banks bought forward dollars for importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices, dealers said.  

 

At 1350 IST, the 10-year Treasury yield eased some gains and fell to 4.69%, from 4.70% Tuesday, the highest level since early 2025, which also supported forward premiums, they said. 

 

At 1340 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.82%, down from 2.83% Tuesday. But on an absolute basis, the premium was 271.20 paise, slightly higher than 270.50 paise at Wednesday close.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Remains down at 3-week low on importers demand; RBI dollar sales aid

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7350	95.7100	95.7100	95.7350	95.6800

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell to a three-week low against the dollar Wednesday and moved in a tight range of 5 paise thereafter. The rupee was under pressure as banks bought dollars for importers, fearing further rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. "Importers are actively buying, but the rupee is not moving much because the selling is also evenly matched," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

However, public sector banks' dollar sales for the Reserve Bank of India around 95.75 per dollar kept the rupee in a tight range and limited its sharp fall. "The RBI's dollar sales have not been aggressive this week, like the previous week. Intervention is very mild," the dealer said. 

 

Banks also sold dollars for exporters, noting relatively higher dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The rupee broke past the 95.50 per dollar mark after trading tightly within a 95.20–95.40 range for over two weeks, triggering dollar sales by exporters. Banks also sold dollars for foreign portfolio investors, they said.

Crude oil prices held steady above $90 per barrel amid the ongoing war in West Asia, which weighed on the Indian rupee. US President Donald Trump Tuesday said no talks were underway or scheduled with Iran. This came after both countries refrained from renewing the ceasefire deal, which expired Monday.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.60-95.80 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Aug 19

 

MUMBAI – At 1055 IST, the rupee was at 95.7300 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.7100 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.6800. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.90	95.80	95.60	95.40
Private-sector bank	96.00	95.80	95.60	95.50
Private-sector bank	95.82	95.75	95.60	95.55
Foreign bank	--	95.80	95.60	--
Brokerage firm	95.80	95.72	95.65	95.55
Brokerage firm	95.98	95.88	95.48	95.28

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Tad down as crude firms up; RBI's dlr sales speculated

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7350	95.7100	95.7100	95.7350	95.6800

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar Wednesday as crude oil prices remained elevated due to lack of efforts by the US and Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The rupee traded at 95.73 per dollar in early session.  

However, dealers speculated that the impact of higher crude oil prices amid tension in West Asia was squared off by the Reserve Bank of India's likely dollar sales. The central bank's likely dollar sales limited a sharp fall of the rupee and may keep the rupee at the same range for the rest of the day, they said. 

 

Few dealers said banks sold dollars for exporters, which kept the rupee in a tight range. "We are kind of seeing exporters in market, as expected, and that's why the rupee is range bound. There is a tug of war now," a dealer a private sector bank said. Banks are expected to buy dollars actively, which will put further pressure on Indian unit. 

 

The Indian unit got relief from the weak dollar as market pricing in a September quarter-point hike flipped toward a 65% chance of a hold, after the recent news of unexpected job losses in July and other economic data. At 0900 IST, dollar index was 99.58, down from 99.64 Tuesday. Investors await Fed's July meeting minutes, due late Wednesday, for clarity on the interest rate outlook.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move between 95.60 and 95.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.75 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; weak dollar helps; South Korean won gains

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note in early trade on Wednesday. The dollar index edged away from a two-month low on Wednesday as US Treasury yields eased slightly and investors turned their attention to the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting for fresh clues on the monetary policy outlook. The fall in US equities due to continuous sell-off in tech-related stocks weighed on the investors' risk sentiment.

 

The rising tensions in West Asia kept the greenback's safe-haven demand alive but weighed on Asian units. At 0830 IST, the index was at 99.54, down from 99.64 Tuesday. Brent Crude oil remained above $91 per barrel on Wednesday, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session as the US and Iran showed little indication of reaching an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At 0830 IST, Brent crude oil for October futures were $91.59 per barrel, up from $91.02 Tuesday. 

 

The South Korean won lead gains among Asian peers and jumped to an 11-month high Wednesday. The won rose 0.9% to 1,400 per dollar due to subdued expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve after the recent economic data. The dollar sales by South Korean exporters have further supported the won. 

 

The Philippine peso fell 0.1% to 61.81 per dollar, while Thai baht and Taiwan dollar were broadly steady against the dollar Wednesday. The Chinese yuan fell marginally against the dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 19

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.40
Private-sector bank	95.90	95.60
Private-sector bank	95.88	95.58
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.50
Brokerage firm	95.88	95.48
Brokerage firm	95.80	95.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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