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Informist, Friday, Aug. 21, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended steady against the dollar Friday as the impact of a rise in crude oil prices was offset by a weakness in the dollar index and dollar sales by banks on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. 

 

"They (RBI) kept it in a range. Otherwise it could have fallen to 96/$ today," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Crude prices are putting immense pressure on the rupee again."

 

After trading in a narrow range of 10 paise during the day, the rupee settled at 95.6950 per dollar Friday, largely unchanged from the previous close of 95.7050. Asian currencies rose 0.2-1% against the dollar Friday, with the South Korean won hitting its strongest level since late September 2025, as a softer dollar supported demand for the local currency. 

 

Dealers said the continued increase in crude oil prices weighed on the Indian currency. Brent crude has risen more than 5% so far this week as there were no signs of efforts by the US and Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump announced the launch of an unprecedented "crushing economic operation" against Iran, warning that any country offering Tehran a lifeline would face severe financial retaliation. A US official said the sanctions against Iran would be announced on Monday. 

 

Due to a surge in crude prices, importers bought dollars actively, fearing a further increase, which also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

However, dollar sales by public sector banks on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India supported the local unit, dealers said. The central bank has tried to protect the rupee at the 95.80 level for the past two weeks, they said.

 

Weakness in the dollar index also provided some support to Asian currencies, including the Indian unit. However, the stock market remained muted.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6950	95.6575	95.6575	95.7500	95.7050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	276.70	277.48	278.57	275.80	276.79

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was broadly steady as banks' forward dollar purchases for importers were offset by their dollar sales for foreign portfolio investors. FPI net purchases in the Indian capital market so far in August amounted to $2 billion, following a calendar-year high of $4.37 billion of net inflows in July.

 

Banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing a further surge in crude oil prices, which supported forward premiums, dealers said. The dollar-rupee forward premium snapped four straight days of gains and ended flat Friday.

 

10-year US Treasury yields climbed back above the level seen just before the Treasury Department Wednesday announced it would at least double repurchases of long-term bonds in the next few months. The yield on the 10-year note rose to 4.7%, 5 bps below the 20-month high hit this week, which limited the rise in forward premiums. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.89%, unchanged from Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 276.70 paise, compared to 276.79 paise at close Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

The market is shut on Saturdays. On Monday, the rupee will track crude oil prices and developments in the war in West Asia, with Trump ready to impose economic sanctions on Iran.

 

Dealers expect banks to buy dollars for importers, weighing on the currency. However, the RBI's continuous dollar sales support the rupee as it comes under pressure. 

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.80 per dollar, a break below which may drag it to 96.00. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.65-96.00 against the dollar Monday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index at three-month low; Japanese yen rises

 

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3665	1.3669	1.3631	1.3629
EUR/USD	1.1703	1.1707	1.1678	1.1677
NZD/USD	0.5977	0.5980	0.5944	0.5939
AUD/USD	0.7161	0.7163	0.7112	0.7109
USD/JPY	158.5230	159.1330	158.4680	159.0520
USD/CAD	1.3750	1.3788	1.3744	1.3783
EUR/JPY	185.5120	186.0200	185.4940	185.7010
CHF/USD	1.2503	1.2523	1.2487	1.2485
EUR/CHF	0.9359	0.9362	0.9343	0.934

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index fell further around 98.7 on Friday, hitting its lowest level in three months as the US government moved to contain long-term borrowing costs by expanding its bond buyback programme. The bond buyback plan heightened market volatility and boosted demand for safe-haven metals and other currencies at the expense of the greenback. At 1415 IST, the dollar index was at 98.70, down from 98.84 Thursday. 

 

Crude oil prices held firm at $93 per barrel Friday, and remained on track for a second consecutive weekly gain as the stalemate between the US and Iran persisted and concern grew about energy supplies in West Asia. At 1415 IST, Brent crude oil for October futures edged down to $93.20 a barrel after rising over 2% in the previous session.

 

The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1702, the highest level in three months as the greenback took the hit. Meanwhile, markets are confident that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates at the September meeting, which further supported the euro. 

 

The sterling pound was also up 0.2% at $1.366 Friday, reaching its highest level in six months. UK inflation was relatively high, which reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy. The UK's annual inflation rate rose to 2.9% in July 2026, the highest in four months, from 2.6% in June. 

 

The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 158.58 per dollar as the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in its next meeting amid high inflation due to rising crude oil. The joint intervention by the US-Japan did not change the underlying sentiment of the yen as it kept falling, until Wednesday when the US Treasury announced a buyback plan. 

 

The Canadian dollar rose 0.3% against the dollar Friday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: 1-yr premium steady as banks' fwd dlr purchases offset sales

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7450	95.6575	95.6575	95.7500	95.7050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	276.70	277.48	278.57	275.80	276.80

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was broadly steady as banks' forward dollar purchases for importers was offset by their dollar sales for foreign portfolio investors.

 

FPIs' net purchases in the Indian capital market so far in August amount to $2 billion, following a calendar-year high of $4.37 billion of net inflows in July.

 

Banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further surge in crude oil prices, which supported forward premiums, dealers said. The dollar-rupee forward premium snapped four straight days of gains and was flat Friday.

 

10-year US Treasury yields climbed back above the level seen just before the Treasury Department Wednesday said it would at least double repurchases of long-term bonds in the next few months. The yield on the 10-year note rose to 4.7%, 5 bps away from the 20-month high hit this week, which limited the rise of the forward premiums. 

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.90%, up from 2.89% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 276.05 paise, higher than 266.33 paise at close Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Steady on RBI intervention, weak dollar; importers' buys weigh

 

	AT 1210 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7425	95.6575	95.6575	95.7500	95.7050

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained broadly steady against the dollar Friday as public sector banks continued to sell the greenback, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The central bank has been supporting actively to keep the Indian unit steady for two weeks despite the rise in crude oil prices amid escalation in the West Asia war and importers' dollar demand. Dealers said the RBI likely sold $10 billion in just two weeks.  

 

"When the global cues are negative, the RBI has no option but to do something and stop the free fall of the rupee. That is why it came up with many measures, like FCNR (B) deposits. I think they will come up with more such measures," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

Weakness in the dollar index also provided some support to Asian currencies, including the Indian unit. The stock market extended its losses following Wednesday's sharp drop as the US Treasury announced a significant expansion of long-dated Treasury buyback operations to ease pressure from rising long-end yields. At 1210 IST, the dollar index was at a three-month low of 98.75, down from 98.84 Thursday. 

 

However, banks bought dollars for importers, who wanted to hedge, fearing further fall of the rupee and a surge in crude oil prices, which weighed on the Indian unit. "There was heavy oil purchasing. Crude is going to go up if the US and Iran don't sit for peace talks, so importers will have to get dollars," a dealer at another private sector bank said.  

 

At 1210 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $93.42 per barrel, a tad lower than $93.78 Wednesday. Brent crude has risen more than 5% so far this week as the US and Iran make no efforts to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump announced the launch of an unprecedented "crushing economic operation" against Iran, warning that any country offering Tehran a lifeline would face severe financial retaliation. A US official said the sanctions against Iran would be announced on Monday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.65-95.85 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Steady as weak dollar index offsets high oil prices

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6975	95.6575	95.6675	95.7025	95.7050

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained steady as the dollar index declined further to a three-month low, which squared off the impact of higher crude oil prices, dealers said. At 0930 IST, the dollar index was 99.74, down from 98.84 Thursday.

 

Few dealers speculated that public sector banks sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which kept the rupee steady. The central bank has tried to protect the rupee at 95.80 level for the past two weeks, they said. "There is huge protection by the RBI. If the RBI was not there, the rupee would have easily crossed 95.90," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

A rise in crude oil prices above $93 per barrel, as the US prepared to impose economic sanctions on Iran, kept the rupee on edge. Brent crude oil is headed for a second consecutive weekly gain, up more than 5% so far this week.

 

Importers bought dollars actively, fearing a further surge in crude oil prices, which weighed on the Indian unit. "Going further in the day, I think the importers' buying demand will put pressure on the rupee and it will fall. Now, the RBI's scale of intervention will decide everything," the dealer said. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.65-95.85 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 21

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.60
Private-sector bank	95.85	95.65
Private-sector bank	95.85	95.65
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.50
Brokerage firm	95.90	95.65
Brokerage firm	95.80	95.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most rise as dollar weakens; South Korean won up most

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the greenback as the dollar index fell below 98.8 on Friday, hitting its lowest level since mid-May as the US Treasury moved to contain long-term borrowing costs by expanding its bond buyback program. At 0820 IST, the dollar index was at 98.73, down from 98.84 Thursday. 

 

However, a rise in crude oil prices above $93 per barrel has put pressure on Asian currencies. Brent crude remains elevated as US President Donald Trump prepares to impose economic sanctions on Iran, raising concerns about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

 

The South Korean won rose 1% to 1381.1 per dollar, hitting its strongest level since late September 2025, as a softer dollar supported demand for the local currency. Additionally, persistent dollar-selling by Korean exporters continued to support the won amid strong semiconductor-related export receipts. The conversion of SK hynix's ADR proceeds into won has also been a key factor behind the currency's sharp appreciation in recent weeks. 

 

Thai baht rose 0.2% to 32.76 per dollar Friday. The Singapore dollar also rose 0.2% against the dollar, while the Malaysian ringgit and Hong Kong dollar were steady Friday. 

 

The Taiwan dollar and Chinese yuan were broadly steady at 31.85 and 6.72 per dollar, respectively. (Divya Moolayattil) 

 

End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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