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Informist, Monday, Aug. 24, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased gains made in early trade and fell slightly Monday as banks bought dollars for importers, noting the slight fall in crude oil price and fearing an escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran, dealers said. However, the rupee's fall was contained by the Reserve Bank of India's intervention, they said. The dollar index rose sharply intraday, which weighed on the Indian currency. 

 

"There was good resistance for the rupee at 95.77 (per dollar), RBI was covering on a wholesome basis. But importers were also buying on (dollar-rupee) dips, so the rupee (rupee-dollar) was not going higher," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "The market was also worried about US sanctions on Iran, which could lead to escalations."

 

After hitting a high of 95.6400 per dollar, the rupee settled at 95.7450 Monday, down slightly from 95.6950 Friday. The rupee moved in a tight range of 12 paise during the day. Most Asian currencies were muted against the dollar, with no clear developments in the war in West Asia. Bucking the trend, the South Korean won rose by 0.3%.

 

The rupee started the day on a slightly positive note as crude oil prices fell as increased inventories and mixed demand forecasts temporarily eased pressure after persistent West Asia supply risks had driven prices higher. At 1530 IST, Brent Crude oil for October delivery was at $93.04 a barrel, down from $94.39 Friday.

 

However, investors were worried as the US is set to announce an "unprecedented" package of sweeping economic sanctions against Iran, aimed at crippling the country's economy and forcing it to surrender. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to detail the measures--termed an "economic D-Day"--at a press conference at 2330 IST. Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei warned Monday that if Trump's "economic war" continues, Tehran will halt all oil exports from the Gulf, which is likely to disrupt supplies further.

 

The rupee was also weighed down by the negative sentiment in the market due to broadly higher US Treasury yields and Washington's economic war against Iran. US Treasury yields fell slightly but remained high owing to investor jitters over the Treasury Department's extended debt repurchase programme and soaring national debt. At 1530 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.72% against 4.73% Friday.

 

However, the Indian currency remained in a tight range because of the RBI's continuous dollar sales. Dealers said the RBI was able to support the rupee actively due to robust dollar inflows into foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits. The RBI's measures to boost foreign capital inflows have attracted $72.85 billion from Jun. 8 till Friday. Nearly 90% of the inflows have come into the FCNR(B) deposits scheme at $65.40 billion. With just a week left for the scheme, dealers expect around $85 billion of FCNR(B) inflows by Aug. 31.

 

The dollar index rose to a near one-week high after trading near a three-month low for most of the day on safe-haven appeal amid rising uncertainty around the war in West Asia. At 1530 IST, the index rose to 99.02, up from 98.86 Friday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7450	95.6400	95.6400	95.7475	95.6950
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	279.60	276.60	280.07	275.10	276.70

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose slightly across tenors as banks purchased forward dollars for importers, who noted a slight fall in crude oil prices, dealers said. The Indian currency erased gains in the spot market on higher dollar demand from importers and due to negative sentiment stemming from potential US economic sanctions on Iran.

 

A slight fall in US Treasury yields supported the forward premiums, as per some dealers. At 1530 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.72% from 4.73% Friday. The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium at the same time was at 2.92%, up from 2.89% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 279.60 paise, up from 276.70 paise at Friday's close.

 

OUTLOOK

Tuesday, the rupee will track crude oil prices and developments in the war in West Asia, with Trump ready to impose economic sanctions on Iran.

 

Dealers expect banks to buy dollars for importers, which will weigh on the currency. However, the RBI's continuous dollar sales will support the rupee as it comes under pressure. Market participants will track dollar inflows into FCNR(B) deposits, with the deadline of Aug. 31 for the scheme looming.  

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.80 per dollar, a break below which may drag it to 96.00. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.65-95.80 against the dollar Tuesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar rises on safe-haven demand; market eyes US sanctions

 

	AT 1415 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3629	1.3656	1.3625	1.3640
EUR/USD	1.1665	1.1689	1.1661	1.1686
NZD/USD	0.5965	0.5983	0.5962	0.5976
AUD/USD	0.7161	0.7177	0.7158	0.7166
USD/JPY	159.2170	159.2820	158.7060	159.0100
USD/CAD	1.3842	1.3844	1.3783	1.3771
EUR/JPY	185.7150	185.8009	185.3366	185.7644
CHF/USD	1.2464	1.2513	1.2454	1.2476
EUR/CHF	0.9360	0.9364	0.9331	0.9361

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose sharply intraday on its safe-haven appeal as investors await US' economic sanctions on Iran, which is set to be unveiled late Monday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to detail the measures, termed an "economic D-Day", during a press conference at 2330 IST, with the aim to "severing every economic lifeline" that sustains Iran. At 1400 IST, the dollar index was 98.99, up from 98.86 Friday. 

 

The dollar was trading at a three-month low in early Asian trade as investors digested the US Treasury's pledge to buy back more long-term bonds and looked ahead to monetary policy signals from the US and Japan this week.

 

The euro fell slightly to $1.1680 Monday as investors anticipate a more hawkish European Central Bank amid geopolitical tensions and await details on Iran sanctions. The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates in September, following its June tightening to curb inflation pressures triggered by the US-Iran conflict and its impact on energy prices. A September hike would lift the deposit rate to 2.5%, but bets on further tightening are rising.

 

Sterling was steady at $1.3644, while the yen remained firm around 159 per dollar. The Canadian dollar fell 0.4% to 1.3789 per dollar, while the Australian dollar traded near three-month highs at $1.3962 per dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums rise as banks buy fwd dollars for importers

 

	AT 1340 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7225	95.6400	95.6400	95.7325	95.6950
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	279.10	276.60	279.57	275.10	276.70

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose slightly across tenors as banks purchased forward dollars for importers, who noted a slight fall in crude oil prices, dealers said. The Indian unit erased gains in the spot market on high dollar demand from importers and due to negative sentiment, owing to US' potential economic sanctions on Iran. 

 

Inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits kept the rupee from falling as the Reserve Bank of India used these inflows to intervene in the market. The RBI's measures to boost foreign capital inflows have attracted $72.85 billion from Jun. 8 till Friday. A major portion of these inflows came from FCNR(B) deposits at $65.40 billion.

 

However, a slight fall in US Treasury yields supported the forward premiums, as per some dealers. At 1340 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell on Monday to 4.72% from 4.74% Friday.    

 

At 1340 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was at 2.91%, up from 2.89% Friday. But on an absolute basis, the premium was 279.10 paise, slightly higher than 276.70 paise at close Friday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:Erases gains on importers' demand; RBI dlr sales keep unit steady

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7200	95.6400	95.6400	95.7375	95.6950

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased gains booked in early trade and traded steady against the dollar as the public sector banks' dollar sales, likely for the Reserve Bank of India offset banks' dollar purchases for importers, dealers said. "Whenever there is a dip in dollar-rupee levels, the importers come in. That is why the rupee is not going higher (rupee-dollar). But it is also not falling because of the central bank," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The rupee was also weighed down by the negative sentiment in the market due to broadly higher US Treasury yields and the US' economic war against Iran. The US Treasury yields fell slightly, but remained elevated due to investor jitters over the Treasury Department's extended debt repurchase programme and soaring national debt. At 1240 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.71% against 4.73% Friday.  

 

Investors were also worried as the US is set to announce an unprecedented package of sweeping economic sanctions against Iran, with an aim to cripple Tehran's economy and force them to surrender in war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to detail the measures—termed an "economic D-Day" during a press conference at 2330 IST. Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei warned Monday that if Trump's "economic war" continues, Tehran will halt all oil exports from the Gulf, which is likely to disrupt the oil supplies further. 

However, the Indian unit remained under the tight range due to RBI's continuous dollar sales. Dealers said the RBI was able to support the rupee actively due to robust dollar inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits. The RBI's measures to boost foreign capital inflows have attracted $72.85 billion from Jun. 8 till Friday. Of this, nearly 90% of these inflows came from FCNR(B) deposits scheme at $65.40 billion. With just one week left for the deadline for FCNR(B) deposits, dealers expect around $85 billion of FCNR (B) inflows by Aug. 31. 

 

At 1300 IST, Brent crude oil for October futures fell slightly to $92.82 per barrel from $94.39 Friday on elevated inventories and concerns for demand. This fall in crude oil prices also supported the rupee Monday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.60-95.75 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.75 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Aug 24

 

MUMBAI – At 1135 IST, the rupee was at 95.7100 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.6400 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.6950. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.90	95.80	95.55	95.45
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.75	95.60	95.55
Private-sector bank	96.90	95.80	95.60	95.50
Brokerage firm	95.95	95.75	95.55	95.45
Brokerage firm	95.90	95.80	95.60	95.40

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Tad up as crude prices fall; importers' demand may weigh

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6600	95.6400	95.6400	95.6625	95.6950

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly against the dollar in early trade Monday as crude oil prices fell after traders took profits and markets awaited details of a new US sanctions package against Iran. At 0900 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was $93.02, down from $94.39 per barrel Friday. The US is set to announce economic sanctions on Iran Monday, with an aim to cripple Tehran's economy and force its surrender in the West Asia war. 

 

Dealers speculate that public sector banks sold dollars for the Reserve Bank of India, which supported the Indian unit. "I think the RBI is there, selling in a mild way, that is why not much movement is seen in market," a dealer at a public sector bank. 

 

The US government's mounting debt burden weighed on the dollar's safe-haven appeal and extended its decline Monday. A weaker dollar supported Asian currencies, including the Indian unit. At 0900 IST, the dollar index was 98.83, down from 98.86 Friday.

 

Dealers said importers were not seen buying dollars in early trade. However, as the day progresses, they may step in actively and buy at every dollar-rupee dip. For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.55-95.75 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.75 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; fall in crude oil supports

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note in early trade Monday. The South Korean won rose the most among regional peers. Asian currencies were supported as a dip in crude oil prices eased economic pressure on the import-dependent nations. At 0800 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was $92.81 per barrel, down from $94.39 Friday. 

 

Investors awaited details of what Washington has billed as its toughest-ever sanctions campaign against Iran. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the measures as an unprecedented campaign of economic isolation designed to pressure Iran and its trading partners into compliance.

 

The South Korean won rose 0.4% to 1,379.16 per dollar Monday. The rapid appreciation has been attributed to a weaker dollar and dollar selling by South Korean exporters. The dollar remained under pressure after posting significant losses last week, as a sharp rise in Treasury yields heightened concerns over the US government's mounting debt burden and weighed on the dollar's appeal.

 

The Philippine peso fell 0.12% to 61.724 a dollar. Markets await Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' policy meeting scheduled for Thursday. Investors are split between a pause holding rates at 4.75% or a modest 25-bps hike as it balances slowing GDP growth against persistent supply-side inflation risks. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah was broadly steady at 17,700 per dollar. The Thai baht rose 0.2% to 32.59 per dollar and Taiwan dollar also rose 0.2% to 31.76 a dollar Monday. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan fell 0.2% to 6.723 per dollar Monday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 24

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.50
Private-sector bank	95.85	95.50
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.45
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.50
Foreign bank	95.80	95.40
Brokerage firm	95.78	95.46
Brokerage firm	95.80	95.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.7450

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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