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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 2, 2026

 

NEW DELHI – The GDP estimates for the June quarter will be revised, the statistics ministry said Wednesday. The quarterly figures are indicator-based and will change as more comprehensive and updated source data become available, the ministry added. These revisions could be a "few 10s of basis points", which is normal, Secretary Saurabh Garg said.

 

There is always a change in quarterly GDP estimates as compared to the full-year estimates as these are based on actual output data generally, Garg said. Even the data from the last three years show that there are some revisions in GDP data from quarter-to-quarter. In general, "quarter-to-quarter, there would be some new data sources that would be available. But apart from that, we do not expect significant change," Garg said while briefing media.

 

"And obviously the numbers, it means the Q1 (Apr-Jun) will undergo further revision," Garg said. "These (quarterly estimates) are indicator-based. But we do not expect them to change substantially, but it could be a few 10s of basis points that normally happens."

 

Monday, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released the quarterly GDP estimates for the June quarter, which showed that the Indian economy grew 7.8% in Apr-Jun, sharply above the consensus estimate of 7.2% and the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 7.0% for the quarter. India's GDP rose 8.6% in the March quarter of 2025-26 (Apr-Mar). The data saw a revision partly due to a shift to the Output Producer Price Index from Wholesale Price Index for GDP deflation. "The fact that PPI has much more granular data compared to WPI. So the number of deflators has considerably increased than what we used in the previous," Garg said.

 

The impact of the incorporation of PPI as deflator can also be seen in the previous GDP estimates for the full financial year. The full-year GDP estimates also reported revisions due to a change in the base year to 2022-23 from the old 2011-12 series. "We had around 180 deflators in the previous series and now it is more than 300 deflators. And because of that, we have much more granularity on the input side in terms of the input PPI, which in WPI we did not have a full impact on that," the secretary said.

 

On the concerns about the GDP data overestimating growth in Apr-Jun, Garg said that data points are available in the public domain for the first quarter. The "resilience of the economy" that is being talked about "I think that is coming up in these months," he said.

 

The ministry will also release the final GDP estimates for FY25 and the first revised estimates for FY26 in February. "You can expect certain changes in that (data)," Garg said. He also confirmed the release of back-series data for the new GDP series with base year FY23 by the end of 2026.

 

Earlier in the day, the ministry also clarified the downward revision of GDP in the base year and low deflator in the latest data amid criticism that the Apr-Jun GDP data overstated growth. The ministry said the downward revision of last year's data was due to a change in the base year, incorporation of improved data sources and methodologies, and the updating of available indicators. "It is therefore incorrect to interpret the difference as a deliberate downward revision of last year's GDP to mechanically increase the current year's growth rate," the ministry said in a press release.

 

The ministry said that as it incorporates additional information, estimates under the different approaches may change. "Consequently, the statistical discrepancy may also change," it said.

 

The direction and magnitude of any revision will depend on the revisions to the underlying production-and expenditure-side estimates, rather than a mechanical adjustment of the discrepancy alone, the ministry said. "At the time of release of final estimates at current prices, the discrepancies will be very insignificant or zero as was found in case of FY23 and FY24," it added.  End

 

Reported by Shweta

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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